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Journals / NİŞANTAŞI ÜNİVERSİTESİ SOSYAL BİLİMLER DERGİSİ / 2025 / Cilt: 13 Sayı: Özel Sayı Özel Sayı

ON THE BRINK OF A NEW WORLD ORDER: TURKISH CAPITAL MARKETS FACING ASYMMETRIC SHOCKS OF UNCERTAINTY FACTORS

Yeni Bir Dünya Düzeninin Eşiğinde: Belirsizlik Faktörlerinin Asimetrik Şokları Karşısında Türk Sermaye Piyasaları

Merve Tuncay(Sivas Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi)0000-0002-2379-1314
Pages
219–237
Publication Date
2025-12-31
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The findings are expected to provide not only a meaningful contribution to the existing literature but also provide a framework for the position of the Turkish stock markets during the transformation process.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

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Objective & Hypothesis:The economic and political instabilities have made the impact of uncertainties in capital markets more salient, and affected investors' decisions since the pandemic period.
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Key Findings & Data:In accordance with the aim of this study, the asymmetric effects of 10-year government bond yields, uncertainties in gold (ounce) and Brent crude oil prices besides the geopolitical uncertainty index (GPR), trade policy uncertainty index (TPU) and climate policy uncertainty index (CPU) on selected stock market indices are investigated by the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model for the 2015-2025 period.
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Conclusion & Impact:The findings are expected to provide not only a meaningful contribution to the existing literature but also provide a framework for the position of the Turkish stock markets during the transformation process.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2015-2025 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Küresel belirsizlik unsurları · finansal piyasalar · asimetrik şoklar

Abstract

The economic and political instabilities have made the impact of uncertainties in capital markets more salient, and affected investors' decisions since the pandemic period. Turkish capital markets have been operating under the pressure of various uncertainties stemming from both domestic and foreign political or economic dynamics as well. Hence, it is quite crucial for policymakers and investors to reveal the effects of increasing uncertainties on the markets during this global transformation process in order to take the right steps in such an environment. In accordance with the aim of this study, the asymmetric effects of 10-year government bond yields, uncertainties in gold (ounce) and Brent crude oil prices besides the geopolitical uncertainty index (GPR), trade policy uncertainty index (TPU) and climate policy uncertainty index (CPU) on selected stock market indices are investigated by the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model for the 2015-2025 period. According to the findings, the selected uncertainty factors have asymmetric effects on stock market indices in different directions and to different magnitude. The findings are expected to provide not only a meaningful contribution to the existing literature but also provide a framework for the position of the Turkish stock markets during the transformation process.

Özet

Dünyada özellikle pandemi döneminden itibaren yaşanan ekonomik ve politik istikrarsızlıklar sermaye piyasalarında da belirsizliklerin etkisini belirginleştirmekte ve yatırımcıların kararlarını etkilemektedir. Türk sermaye piyasaları ise son yıllarda hem kendi iç dinamikleri hem de yabancı politik veya ekonomik dinamiklerle bağlantılı birçok belirsizlik karşısında faaliyet göstermektedir. Dolayısıyla dünyadaki yeni dönüşüm sürecinde artan belirsizliklerin piyasalar üzerindeki etkilerinin ortaya koyulabilmesi, hem politika yapıcılar hem de yatırımcılar için böyle bir ortamda doğru adımların atılabilmesi açısından oldukça önemlidir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, 10 yıllık tahvil faiz oranları, ons altın ve brent petrol fiyatlarındaki belirsizliklerin yanı sıra, jeopolitik belirsizlik endeksi (GPR), ticari politika belirsizlik endeksi (TPU) ve iklim politikası belirsizlik endeksi (CPU) verilerinin seçilmiş borsa endeksleri üzerine asimetrik etkileri 2015-2025 dönemi için doğrusal olmayan gecikmesi dağılmış otoregresif (NARDL) model ile incelenmiştir. Bulgulara göre, seçilen belirsizlik unsurlarının borsa endeksleri üzerinde farklı yön ve ölçüde asimetrik etkileri bulunmaktadır. Elde edilen bulguların literatür için anlamlı katkılar sağlamasının yanında, Türkiye borsalarının dönüşüm süreci içerisindeki duruşu açısından da bir çerçeve sunabilmesi beklenmektedir.

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Cite This Article

Tuncay, M. (2025). ON THE BRINK OF A NEW WORLD ORDER: TURKISH CAPITAL MARKETS FACING ASYMMETRIC SHOCKS OF UNCERTAINTY FACTORS. NİŞANTAŞI ÜNİVERSİTESİ SOSYAL BİLİMLER DERGİSİ, Cilt: 13 Sayı: Özel Sayı Özel Sayı, 219–237. https://doi.org/10.52122/nisantasisbd.1807876

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