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Journals / Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 21 Sayı: 81

REFLECTIONS OF EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY ON TURKIYE’S IMPORT AND EXPORT: AN ARDL AND TODA-YAMAMOTO ANALYSIS

DÖVİZ KURU BELİRSİZLİĞİNİN TÜRKİYE'DE İTHALAT VE İHRACATA YANSIMALARI: ARDL VE TODA-YAMAMOTO YAKLAŞIMI İLE BİR ANALİZ

Tuğba Eyceyurt Batır(Sivas Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi Cumhuriyet Sosyal Bilimler MYO)0000-0003-4688-1811
Merve Tuncay(SİVAS CUMHURİYET ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-2379-1314
Pages
149–169
Publication Date
2026-01-31
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

In order to strengthen the findings of the study, a Toda-Yamamoto causality test was conducted between the variables and as a result of the test, it was determined that there was no connection between exchange rate uncertainty and import and export.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

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Objective & Hypothesis:This study aims to examine the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on foreign trade performance in Turkey in the context of import and export.
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Key Findings & Data:As a developing and open economy, Turkey frequently experiences exchange rate volatility and this uncertainty directly affects foreign trade volume.
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Conclusion & Impact:In order to strengthen the findings of the study, a Toda-Yamamoto causality test was conducted between the variables and as a result of the test, it was determined that there was no connection between exchange rate uncertainty and import and export.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2001-2025 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Döviz kuru belirsizliği · ithalat · ihracat

Abstract

This study aims to examine the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on foreign trade performance in Turkey in the context of import and export. As a developing and open economy, Turkey frequently experiences exchange rate volatility and this uncertainty directly affects foreign trade volume. In this study, which was conducted based on quarterly data for the period 2001-2025, exchange rate uncertainty was calculated with the GARCH (1,1) model; foreign trade variables were analyzed with the ARDL bounds test. As a result of the analysis conducted by considering the stationarity levels of the variables, a long-term cointegration relationship was determined between both import and export series and exchange rate uncertainty. However, the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on import and export were not found to be statistically significant and were negative. Imports, especially in the long term, seem to be more sensitive to exchange rate uncertainty. In order to strengthen the findings of the study, a Toda-Yamamoto causality test was conducted between the variables and as a result of the test, it was determined that there was no connection between exchange rate uncertainty and import and export.

Özet

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de döviz kuru belirsizliğinin dış ticaret performansı üzerindeki etkilerini ithalat ve ihracat bağlamında incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Gelişmekte olan ve dışa açık bir ekonomi olan Türkiye’de döviz kuru oynaklığı sıklıkla yaşanmakta ve bu belirsizlik dış ticaret hacmini doğrudan etkilemektedir. 2001-2025 dönemine ait çeyreklik verilere dayalı olarak yürütülen bu çalışmada, döviz kuru belirsizliği GARCH (1,1) modeli ile hesaplanmış; dış ticaret değişkenleri ise ARDL sınır testi ile analiz edilmiştir. Değişkenlerin durağanlık düzeyleri dikkate alınarak yapılan analiz sonucunda, hem ithalat hem de ihracat serileri ile döviz kuru belirsizliği arasında uzun dönemli bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Ancak, döviz kuru belirsizliğinin ithalat ve ihracat üzerindeki etkileri istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmamakla birlikte negatif yönlüdür. Özellikle uzun vadede ithalat, döviz kuru belirsizliğine daha duyarlı görünmektedir. Çalışmanın bulgularını güçlendirmek adına değişkenler arasında Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi yapılmış ve testin sonucunda döviz kur belirsizliği ile ithalat ve ihracat arasında karşılıklı veya tek yönlü herhangi bir nedensel ilişki olmadığı tespit edilmiştir.

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Cite This Article

Batır, T. E., Tuncay, M. (2026). REFLECTIONS OF EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY ON TURKIYE’S IMPORT AND EXPORT: AN ARDL AND TODA-YAMAMOTO ANALYSIS. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, Cilt: 21 Sayı: 81, 149–169. https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.1785803

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