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Journals / Kastamonu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 28 Sayı: 1

Discouraged Labor Force, Unemployment and Pandemic: An Econometric Perspective on the Turkish Labor Market for the 2018-2021 Period on the Gender Axis

Gücenmiş İşgücü, İşsizlik ve Pandemi: Türkiye İşgücü Piyasasına 2018-2021 Dönemi Cinsiyet Ekseninde Ekonometrik Bir Bakış

Ferhat Topbaş(IZMIR DEMOCRACY UNIVERSITY)0000-0002-7576-4668
Yagmur Akarsu(ÇANAKKALE ONSEKİZ MART ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-4415-0997
Pages
415–429
Publication Date
2026-06-30
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

This study is one of the comprehensive studies that empirically analyzes the phenomenon of the discouraged labor force along with gender discrimination in the pre- and post-pandemic period in Turkey.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

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Objective & Hypothesis:The discouraged labor force phenomenon, which describes dividuals who become discouraged during the job search process and then withdraw from active job search constitutes a significant obstacle to the inclusion of potential labor in production processes.
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Key Findings & Data:As the level of education increases, the possibility of being part of the discouraged labor force decreases, while past work experience also decreases this possibility.
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Conclusion & Impact:This study is one of the comprehensive studies that empirically analyzes the phenomenon of the discouraged labor force along with gender discrimination in the pre- and post-pandemic period in Turkey.
🔬Design:Survey & Empirical Study
📍Scope:2018-2021 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Gücenmiş İşgücü · İşsizlik · İkili Lojistik Regresyon Analizi

Abstract

The discouraged labor force phenomenon, which describes dividuals who become discouraged during the job search process and then withdraw from active job search constitutes a significant obstacle to the inclusion of potential labor in production processes. This study uses microdata from the Household Labor Force Survey (HLFS) for the relevant years and employs a binomial logistic regression analysis to identify the gender-based determinants of the discouraged labor force. In particular, a negative relationship was found between education level and being part of the discouraged labor force. As the level of education increases, the possibility of being part of the discouraged labor force decreases, while past work experience also decreases this possibility. Prolonged unemployment and increasing age are factors that increase the likelihood of being part of the discouraged labor force. With the pandemic it has been observed that being married significantly increases the probability of being part of the discouraged labor force, especially for women. The study examines the 2018-2021 period in light of the fact that the problem of the discouraged labor force increases especially during periods of economic contraction and then turns into a chronic problem. In the case of women, the increase in domestic care responsibilities due to the pandemic has become a triggering factor for withdrawal from the labor force. This study is one of the comprehensive studies that empirically analyzes the phenomenon of the discouraged labor force along with gender discrimination in the pre- and post-pandemic period in Turkey.

Özet

Gücenmiş/ümidi kırılmış işgücü olgusu, iş arama sürecinde cesareti kırılan ve ardından aktif iş arama süreçlerinden çekilen bireyleri tanımlamak için kullanılan bir olgudur ve potansiyel işgücünün üretim süreçlerine dahil edilmesinde önemli bir engel oluşturmaktadır. İlgili dönem için Hanehalkı İşgücü Anketi (HLFS) mikro veri setleri kullanılarak, gücenmiş işgücünü etkileyen faktörlerin cinsiyet açısından belirlenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Özellikle, eğitim düzeyi ile gücenmiş işgücü olma arasında negatif bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Eğitim seviyesi arttıkça, gücenmiş işgücü olma olasılığı azalmakta, geçmiş iş deneyimi ise bu olasılığı düşürmektedir. Uzun süreli işsizlik ve artan yaş, gücenmiş işgücü olma olasılığını artıran faktörlerdir. Pandemi süreciyle birlikte, özellikle kadınlar için evli olmanın gücenmiş işgücü olma ihtimalini önemli ölçüde artırdığı gözlemlenmiştir. Çalışma, gücenmiş işgücü sorununun özellikle ekonomik daralma dönemlerinde arttığı ve ardından kronik bir soruna dönüştüğü gerçeği ışığında 2018–2021 dönemini incelemektedir. Kadınlar özelinde, pandeminin neden olduğu ev içi bakım sorumluluklarındaki artış, işgücünden çekilmenin tetikleyici bir faktörü hâline gelmiştir. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de pandemi öncesi ve sonrası dönemde toplumsal cinsiyet ayrımcılığıyla birlikte gücenmiş işgücü olgusunu ampirik olarak analiz eden kapsamlı çalışmalardan biridir.

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Cite This Article

Topbaş, F., Akarsu, Y. (2026). Discouraged Labor Force, Unemployment and Pandemic: An Econometric Perspective on the Turkish Labor Market for the 2018-2021 Period on the Gender Axis. Kastamonu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt: 28 Sayı: 1, 415–429. https://doi.org/10.21180/iibfdkastamonu.1750818

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