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Journals / Rouya Türkiyyah / 2026 / Cilt: 15 Sayı: 3

Anticipatory Security and Türkiye's Strategic Recalibration After the 2025 Israel-Iran War

Öngörücü Güvenlik ve 2025 İsrail-İran Savaşı Sonrası Türkiye’nin Stratejik Yeniden Kalibrasyonu

Habib Badawi(Lebanese University)0000-0002-6452-8379
Mohamad Badawi(Lebanese University)0009-0004-4415-3567
Pages
207–232
Publication Date
2026-10-24
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The article contributes to understanding of Turkish foreign and defense policy, Middle Eastern security-architecture transformation, and the theoretical study of middle power responses to regional hegemonic shifts.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This study analyzes Türkiye's rapid military modernization following the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict, exploring how demonstrated Israeli operational capabilities have reshaped Turkish threat perceptions and strategic calculations.
📊
Key Findings & Data:Addressing a gap in the literature on middle power security strategies, it introduces the concept of 'anticipatory security' — a behavioral pattern wherein states develop military capabilities against threat scenarios they simultaneously seek to avert through diplomatic engagement.
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Conclusion & Impact:The article contributes to understanding of Turkish foreign and defense policy, Middle Eastern security-architecture transformation, and the theoretical study of middle power responses to regional hegemonic shifts.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:2025 Verileri
⚙️Variables:öngörücü güvenlik · güç dengesi · Orta Doğu jeopolitiği

Abstract

This study analyzes Türkiye's rapid military modernization following the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict, exploring how demonstrated Israeli operational capabilities have reshaped Turkish threat perceptions and strategic calculations. Addressing a gap in the literature on middle power security strategies, it introduces the concept of 'anticipatory security' — a behavioral pattern wherein states develop military capabilities against threat scenarios they simultaneously seek to avert through diplomatic engagement. Employing qualitative document analysis of official Turkish security statements, defense procurement data, and strategic assessments produced between June 2025 and January 2026, the study reveals three principal findings: Turkish defensive preparations generate security dilemma dynamics at the regional level despite their internally rational character; Türkiye's status as a 'multi-complex state' — simultaneously embedded in multiple regional security complexes without full integration in any — amplifies these dilemma effects by foreclosing reliable alliance-based reassurance; and anticipatory security strategies, when adopted concurrently by multiple states, risk producing a regional cascade of competitive military modernization. The article contributes to understanding of Turkish foreign and defense policy, Middle Eastern security-architecture transformation, and the theoretical study of middle power responses to regional hegemonic shifts.

Özet

Bu çalışma, 2025 İsrail-İran çatışmasının ardından Türkiye'nin gerçekleştirdiği süratli askeri modernizasyonu analiz etmekte ve İsrail'in sergilediği operasyonel kabiliyetlerin Türk tehdit algılarını ve stratejik hesaplamalarını nasıl yeniden şekillendirdiğini incelemektedir. Orta güçlerin güvenlik stratejilerine ilişkin literatürdeki bir boşluğu doldurmayı amaçlayan bu makale, "öngörücü güvenlik" (anticipatory security) kavramını ortaya atmaktadır; bu kavram, devletlerin diplomatik angajmanlar vasıtasıyla önlemeye çalıştıkları tehdit senaryolarına karşı eş zamanlı olarak askeri kabiliyetler geliştirdikleri bir davranış örüntüsünü ifade eder. Haziran 2025 ile Ocak 2026 arasında üretilen resmi Türk güvenlik beyanları, savunma tedarik verileri ve stratejik değerlendirmelerin nitel doküman analizine dayanan bu çalışma, üç temel bulguyu ortaya koymaktadır: Birincisi, Türkiye'nin savunma amaçlı hazırlıkları, kendi içinde rasyonel bir nitelik taşımasına rağmen, bölgesel düzeyde bir güvenlik ikilemi (security dilemma) dinamiği üretmektedir. İkincisi, Türkiye'nin "çoklu-kompleks devlet" (multi-complex state) statüsü —yani herhangi birine tam anlamıyla entegre olmaksızın, eş zamanlı olarak birden fazla bölgesel güvenlik kompleksinin içinde yer alması— ittifak temelli güven telkin etme mekanizmalarını imkânsız kılarak bu güvenlik ikilemi etkilerini derinleştirmektedir. Üçüncüsü, öngörücü güvenlik stratejilerinin birden fazla devlet tarafından eş zamanlı olarak benimsenmesi, bölgesel düzeyde bir rekabetçi askeri modernizasyon silsilesini tetikleme riski barındırmaktadır. Makale; Türk dış ve savunma politikasına, Orta Doğu güvenlik mimarisinin dönüşümüne ve orta güçlerin bölgesel hegemonyal kaymalara verdikleri tepkilerin teorik incelenmesine katkı sunmayı amaçlamaktadır.

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Cite This Article

Badawi, H., Badawi, M. (2026). Anticipatory Security and Türkiye's Strategic Recalibration After the 2025 Israel-Iran War. Rouya Türkiyyah, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 3, 207–232. https://ajindex.com/articles/1668309

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