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Journals / Uluslararası Afro-Avrasya Araştırmaları Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 11 Sayı: 22

ISRAEL-IRAN CONFLICT (2018-2026); NEOCLASSICAL REALIST THEORY AND FALSE OPTIMIST CONCEPT PERSPECTIVE

İSRAİL-İRAN ÇATIŞMASI (2018-2026); NEOKLASİK REALİST TEORİ VE HATALI İYİMSERLİK KAVRAMI PERPSEKTİFİ

Halil Altas0000-0000-5915-9828
Pages
184–198
Publication Date
2026-10-01
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The article ended up with some recomendations towards Turkish foreign policy makers, as well as some presumptions for the near future about the conflict.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:Israel-Iran conflict began in the year 2018, because the US withdrew from “Nuclear Deal” in that year.
📊
Key Findings & Data:There was no war between the two rival states before 2018 in the Middle East although hostility existed.
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Conclusion & Impact:The article ended up with some recomendations towards Turkish foreign policy makers, as well as some presumptions for the near future about the conflict.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:2018 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Israil · İran · Çatışma

Abstract

Israel-Iran conflict began in the year 2018, because the US withdrew from “Nuclear Deal” in that year. There was no war between the two rival states before 2018 in the Middle East although hostility existed. The time period seperated into three parts with respect to the conflict. Those were, low intensity proxy war, 2018- 7 October 2023; high intensity proxy war, 7 October 2023- 13 June 2025; direct but limited war, 13 June 2026- May 2026. Israel fought with Iran affiliated proxy forces in the Middle East, which was evolved into direct war between Tehran and Tel Aviv. In fact Israel with ten million population is not a strong enough state to war with ninety million population of Iran. That was why, Netenyahu asked for Trump’s help in the struggle, which paved the way for the assasinations of the Supreme Leader Khamenei. The battles between the two hostile states could be best explained in the framework of neoclassical realist theory, since the leaders determined the styles, methods and times of the wars. Nonetheless, Tel Aviv had not enough power to attack Iran, Netenyahu started the wars each time with the assaults of Israel’s forces. This situation exhibited Netenyahu’s false optimist views, which he believed easy victory with the killings of the high level state officials of Iran. False optimism concept was used in the article for it was the most suitable concept that analyzed the conflict under the neoclassical realism theoritical framework. The article ended up with some recomendations towards Turkish foreign policy makers, as well as some presumptions for the near future about the conflict.

Özet

İsrail-İran çatışması 2018 yılında başlamıştır, zira ABD, “Nükleer Anlaşma”dan bu yılda çekilmiştir. 2018’den önce söz konusu iki devlet arasında düşmanlık var olsa dahî, savaş olmamıştır. Çatışmalar göz önüne alındığında, bu zaman periyodunu üç bölüme ayırmak mümkündür. Bunlar: Düşük yoğunluklu vekalet savaşı dönemi: 2018- 7 Ekim 2023; Yüksek yoğunluklu vekalet savaşı: 7 Ekim 2023- 13 Haziran 2025; direk fakat sınırlı savaş dönemi: 13 Haziran 2025- Mayıs 2026. İsrail öncelikle İran’ın Ortudoğu’daki vekalet kuvvetleriyle çatışmış, bu çatışmalar zamanla Tahran ve Tel-Aviv, arasında direk savaşa dönüşmüştür. Aslında, İsrail 10 milyonluk nüfusuyla, 90 milyon insanı olan İran’la savaşacak güçte bir devlet değildir. Bu güçsüzlük, İsrail lideri Netanyahu’nun, Trump’tan yardım istemesine ve İran lideri Hamaney’in ABD askerleri tarafından öldürülmesine yol açmıştır. Bu iki düşman devlet arasındaki mücadelelerin şekli, yoğunluğu ve kuvveti, devlet liderleri tarafından belirlendiği için, çatışmalar en iyi neoklasik realist teori çerçevesinde açıklanabilir. Tel Aviv’in İran’ı yenebilecek gücü olmamasına rağmen, muharebeler her defasında İsrail’in saldırılarıyla başlamıştır. Bu durum, İsrail liderinin hatalı iyimserlik kavramına uygun olarak politikalar sergilediğini; İran devlet adamlarını suikastla yok ederek kolay zafere ulaşacağına inandığını göstermiştir. Bu nedenle, araştırma neoklasik realist teori altında hatalı iyimserlik kavramı çerçevesinde yapılmıştır. Makale, söz konusu iki devlet arasındaki çatışmalar hakkında yakın geleceğe yönelik öngörülerle birlikte, Türkiye’nin dış politika yapıcılarına tavsiyeler üretmiştir.

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Cite This Article

Altas, H. (2026). ISRAEL-IRAN CONFLICT (2018-2026); NEOCLASSICAL REALIST THEORY AND FALSE OPTIMIST CONCEPT PERSPECTIVE. Uluslararası Afro-Avrasya Araştırmaları Dergisi, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 22, 184–198. https://ajindex.com/articles/1564127

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