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Journals / Kastamonu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 27 Sayı: 1

Impacts of COVID-19 and Exchange Rates on Olive Oil Markets and Food Security

COVID-19 ve Döviz Kurunun Zeytinyağı Piyasaları ve Gıda Güvenliği Üzerindeki Etkileri

Faruk Urak(BITLIS EREN UNIVERSITY, FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCES, DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS)0000-0002-2592-0589
Nihat Küçük(HARRAN UNIVERSITY, FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCES, DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS)0000-0002-1483-0422
Gürkan Bozma(IGDIR UNIVERSITY, FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCES, DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS)0000-0003-4047-9012
Abdulbaki Bilgiç(Bursa Uludag University, Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics)0000-0001-5946-0915
Mehmet Selim Yıldız(Ataturk University, Department of Agricultural Economics)0000-0001-5065-4959
Pages
123–137
Publication Date
2025-06-30
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

It is recommended that policymakers in Turkey implement specific policies for food commodities, considering the possibility of disruptions in global food supply chains due to pandemics or similar crises.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:The objective of this research is to identify the long-term fluctuation spillovers in the Turkish extra-virgin olive oil and crude olive oil markets using COVID-19 and the external dollar exchange rate variables and to examine the asymmetry of these spillovers.
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Key Findings & Data:The analyses required for this research were performed with the VECM (1)-Asymmetric BEKK-GARCH (1, 1) model, using daily data for the period from May 2005 to June 2024.
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Conclusion & Impact:It is recommended that policymakers in Turkey implement specific policies for food commodities, considering the possibility of disruptions in global food supply chains due to pandemics or similar crises.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2005 Verileri
⚙️Variables:COVID-19 · döviz kuru · zeytinyağı piyasaları

Abstract

The objective of this research is to identify the long-term fluctuation spillovers in the Turkish extra-virgin olive oil and crude olive oil markets using COVID-19 and the external dollar exchange rate variables and to examine the asymmetry of these spillovers. The analyses required for this research were performed with the VECM (1)-Asymmetric BEKK-GARCH (1, 1) model, using daily data for the period from May 2005 to June 2024. According to the empirical findings, both brief shocks and long-term uncertainties have significantly increased the conditional variances of the extra-virgin and crude olive oil return series. An increase in long-term uncertainty in the extra-virgin olive oil market has a dampening effect on the long-term volatility in the crude olive oil market. It was observed that the conditional variances of the extra-virgin and crude olive oil return series were negatively affected by fluctuations stemming from COVID-19 in the long run. In the long term, COVID-19 increased uncertainties in bilateral interactions between markets, seriously threatening food security by negatively impacting consumer access to crude and extra-virgin olive oil. It was noted that fluctuations in the exchange rate reduced the volatilities in the extra virgin and crude olive oil markets. It is recommended that policymakers in Turkey implement specific policies for food commodities, considering the possibility of disruptions in global food supply chains due to pandemics or similar crises.

Özet

Bu araştırmanın amacı, COVID-19 ve dışsal dolar döviz kuru değişkenleri kullanılarak Türkiye’de sızma zeytinyağı ile ham zeytinyağı piyasalarındaki uzun vadeli dalgalanma yayılımlarının belirlenmesi ve bu geçişkenliklerin asimetrikliğini araştırmaktır. Bu araştırma için gerekli analizler, Mayıs 2005 ile Haziran 2024 arasındaki döneme ait günlük veriler kullanılarak VECM (1)-Asimetrik BEKK-GARCH (1, 1) modeli ile gerçekleştirilmiştir. Ampirik bulgulara göre, hem kısa vadeli şoklar hem de uzun dönemli belirsizlikler sızma ve ham zeytinyağı getiri serilerinin koşullu varyanslarını önemli düzeyde artırmıştır. Sızma zeytinyağı piyasasındaki uzun vadeli belirsizliğin artışı, ham zeytinyağı piyasasındaki uzun dönemli volatiliteyi azaltıcı bir etki yapmaktadır. Sızma ve ham zeytinyağı getiri serilerinin şartlı varyanslarının uzun vadede COVID-19’dan kaynaklanan dalgalanmalardan negatif yönde etkilendikleri görülmüştür. Uzun vadede COVID-19, piyasalar arası ikili etkileşimlerdeki belirsizlikleri artırmış ve tüketicilerin ham ve sızma zeytinyağına erişimini olumsuz etkileyerek gıda güvenliğini ciddi şekilde tehdit etmiştir. Döviz kurundaki dalgalanmaların sızma ve ham zeytinyağı piyasalarındaki oynaklıkları azalttığı gözlenmiştir. Türkiye'deki politika yapıcılara, pandemi veya benzeri krizler nedeniyle küresel gıda tedarik zincirlerinin bozulma olasılığı dikkate alınarak gıda ürünlerine yönelik spesifik politikaların uygulanması önerilmektedir.

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Cite This Article

Urak, F., Küçük, N., Bozma, G., Bilgiç, A., Yıldız, M. S. (2025). Impacts of COVID-19 and Exchange Rates on Olive Oil Markets and Food Security. Kastamonu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt: 27 Sayı: 1, 123–137. https://doi.org/10.21180/iibfdkastamonu.1552946

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