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Journals / NİŞANTAŞI ÜNİVERSİTESİ SOSYAL BİLİMLER DERGİSİ / 2025 / Cilt: 13 Sayı: Özel Sayı Özel Sayı

DYNAMICS TRANSMITTED FROM COMMODITY MARKETS TO MARITIME TRANSPORT

EMTİA PİYASALARINDAN DENİZ TAŞIMACILIĞINA YANSIYAN DİNAMİKLER

Sümeyra Gazel(BOZOK ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0001-8687-0928
Sinan Can Güngör(YOZGAT BOZOK ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0009-0004-6318-9565
Pages
98–109
Publication Date
2025-12-31
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

In addition, impulse-response analyses show that there are some directional relationships at the coefficient level when looking at the responses of the BDI to shocks from the commodity and metal markets, but these relationships are not statistically significant in terms of dynamic shock transmission.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

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Objective & Hypothesis:In the context of expanding global economic activity, real indicators such as maritime transport, commodity trade, and industrial production provide valuable insights into the scale and direction of global dynamics.
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Key Findings & Data:During the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, the influence of the BDI’s own dynamics intensified, while the effects of industrial metals turned weakly negative.
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Conclusion & Impact:In addition, impulse-response analyses show that there are some directional relationships at the coefficient level when looking at the responses of the BDI to shocks from the commodity and metal markets, but these relationships are not statistically significant in terms of dynamic shock transmission.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:2008 Verileri
⚙️Variables:BDI · Emtia Fiyatları · Sanayi Metalleri

Abstract

In the context of expanding global economic activity, real indicators such as maritime transport, commodity trade, and industrial production provide valuable insights into the scale and direction of global dynamics. Among these, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) stands out not only as a measure of freight costs but also as a leading barometer of global supply–demand conditions and industrial activity. This study investigates the evolving interactions between the BDI, the Dow Jones Commodity Index (DJCI), and the Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex (BCOMIN) using a Time-Varying Coefficient Vector Autoregressive (TVC-VAR) framework. The results reveal that the relationships among these variables are highly time-dependent and sensitive to major economic shocks. During the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, the influence of the BDI’s own dynamics intensified, while the effects of industrial metals turned weakly negative. After 2018, the impact of industrial metals declined further, and the DJCI exhibited a relatively stable but diminishing role after 2020. In addition, impulse-response analyses show that there are some directional relationships at the coefficient level when looking at the responses of the BDI to shocks from the commodity and metal markets, but these relationships are not statistically significant in terms of dynamic shock transmission.

Özet

Küresel ekonomik faaliyetlerin hacminin ve yönünün anlaşılmasında reel göstergelerin rolü giderek artmaktadır. Bu göstergeler arasında yer alan Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksi (BDI), yalnızca deniz taşımacılığı maliyetlerine ilişkin bir gösterge olmanın ötesinde, aynı zamanda küresel arz-talep dengesi, sanayi üretimi ve emtia piyasalarındaki eğilimleri yansıtan önemli bir ekonomik barometre olarak değerlendirilmektedir. Bu çalışma, BDI ile genel emtia piyasasını temsilen Dow Jones Emtia Endeksi (DJCI) ve sanayi metalleri piyasasını temsilen Bloomberg Sanayi Metalleri Alt Endeksi (BCOMIN) arasındaki ilişkileri zamanla değişen katsayılı VAR (TVC-VAR) modeli çerçevesinde incelemektedir. Elde edilen bulgular, BDI ile söz konusu endeksler arasındaki ilişkinin durağan olmadığını, özellikle küresel krizler, finansal belirsizlikler ve piyasa yapısındaki dönüşümlerin bu ilişkiyi belirgin şekilde etkilediğini ortaya koymaktadır. 2008 küresel finansal krizi ve 2020 pandemi döneminde BDI’nin kendi geçmiş değerlerine duyarlılığı artarken, sanayi metalleri endeksinin etkisi negatife dönmüştür. 2018 sonrası dönemde ise sanayi metallerinin etkisinin zayıfladığı, DJCI etkisinin ise görece daha istikrarlı ancak 2020 sonrası azalan bir seyir izlediği gözlemlenmiştir. Etki-tepki analizleri, BDI’nin emtia ve sanayi metalleri kaynaklı şoklara sınırlı düzeyde tepki verdiğini göstermektedir; ancak bu tepkiler istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmamıştır. Bu sonuç kısa vadeli şokların taşımacılık piyasasına belirgin ve kalıcı etkiler üretmediğine işaret etmektedir.

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Cite This Article

Gazel, S., Güngör, S. C. (2025). DYNAMICS TRANSMITTED FROM COMMODITY MARKETS TO MARITIME TRANSPORT. NİŞANTAŞI ÜNİVERSİTESİ SOSYAL BİLİMLER DERGİSİ, Cilt: 13 Sayı: Özel Sayı Özel Sayı, 98–109. https://doi.org/10.52122/nisantasisbd.1810062

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