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Dergiler / Fiscaoeconomia / 2026 / Volume: 10 Issue: 3

Türkiye’de Yasa Dışı Finansal Akımların Bir Kanalı Olarak Ticarette Potansiyel Yanlış Faturalandırmanın Ölçümü: Partner-Ülke Yöntemiyle Bir Analiz (2000-2024)

Measuring Potential Trade Misinvoicing as a Channel of Illicit Financial Flows in Türkiye: An Analysis Using the Partner-Country Method (2000-2024)

Nihat Dağıstan(BAŞKENT ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0001-9086-4942
Mustafa Kemal Doğru(Hazine ve Maliye Bakanlığı)0009-0003-8282-8820
Sayfa
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Yayın Tarihi
2026-10-15
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⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

Bulgular, gümrük risk analizinin fasıl-ortak-yön düzeyinde yürütülmesini ve özellikle kanal/finans merkezi ekonomileriyle ayna istatistik mutabakatının kurumsallaştırılmasını desteklemektedir.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

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Amaç & Hipotez:Yasa dışı finansal akımlar, gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde kalkınma finansmanını ve vergi kapasitesini aşındırmaktadır.
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Temel Bulgular & Veri:Bu çalışma, Türkiye’nin Almanya, ABD, Hollanda, Birleşik Krallık, Belçika, İtalya, Fransa ve İsviçre ile 2000-2024 dönemindeki ikili ticaretinden kaynaklanan değer açıklarını tahmin etmektedir.
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Sonuç & Katkı:Bulgular, gümrük risk analizinin fasıl-ortak-yön düzeyinde yürütülmesini ve özellikle kanal/finans merkezi ekonomileriyle ayna istatistik mutabakatının kurumsallaştırılmasını desteklemektedir.
🔬Tür:Research Article
📍Kapsam:2000-2024 Verileri
⚙️Değişkenler:Trade Misinvoicing · Illicit Financial Flows · Mirror Statistics

Özet

Yasa dışı finansal akımlar, gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde kalkınma finansmanını ve vergi kapasitesini aşındırmaktadır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’nin Almanya, ABD, Hollanda, Birleşik Krallık, Belçika, İtalya, Fransa ve İsviçre ile 2000-2024 dönemindeki ikili ticaretinden kaynaklanan değer açıklarını tahmin etmektedir. UN Comtrade verileri HS-2 fasıl düzeyinde derlenmiş; partner-ülke karşılaştırma yöntemiyle hesaplanan açıklar ihracat eksik ve fazla faturalandırması ile ithalat eksik ve fazla faturalandırması olarak ayrıştırılmıştır. Sekiz ortak için birikimli brüt değer açığı 706,05 milyar ABD dolarıdır. Bu miktar, 2,85 trilyon dolarlık ikili ticaretin %24,7’sine ve yıllık ortalama 28,2 milyar dolara karşılık gelmektedir. Mutlak tutarda Almanya ilk sıradayken, yoğunluk oranları Hollanda ve Belçika gibi kanal/finans merkezi ekonomilerinde daha yüksektir. Akımların en büyük bileşeni ithalat eksik faturalandırmasıdır. Fasıl düzeyinde makine, elektrikli makineler, taşıtlar, kıymetli metaller, hava taşıtları ve eczacılık ürünleri öne çıkmaktadır. Bulgular, gümrük risk analizinin fasıl-ortak-yön düzeyinde yürütülmesini ve özellikle kanal/finans merkezi ekonomileriyle ayna istatistik mutabakatının kurumsallaştırılmasını desteklemektedir.

Abstract

Illicit financial flows erode development finance and tax capacity in developing economies. This study estimates value gaps in Türkiye’s bilateral trade with Germany, the United States, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Belgium, Italy, France, and Switzerland over 2000-2024. UN Comtrade data are compiled at the HS two-digit chapter level. Gaps calculated with the partner-country comparison method are decomposed into export under-invoicing, export over-invoicing, import under-invoicing, and import over-invoicing. The cumulative gross value gap for the eight partners is US$706.05 billion, equivalent to 24.7% of US$2.85 trillion in bilateral trade and an annual average of US$28.2 billion. Germany ranks first by absolute value, while intensity ratios are higher for conduit/financial-hub economies such as the Netherlands and Belgium. Import under-invoicing is the largest component. Machinery, electrical machinery, vehicles, precious metals, aircraft, and pharmaceutical products account for the leading product chapters. The findings support customs risk analysis at the chapter-partner-direction level and the institutionalization of mirror-statistics reconciliation, particularly with conduit/financial-hub economies.

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Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Dağıstan, N., Doğru, M. K. (2026). Türkiye’de Yasa Dışı Finansal Akımların Bir Kanalı Olarak Ticarette Potansiyel Yanlış Faturalandırmanın Ölçümü: Partner-Ülke Yöntemiyle Bir Analiz (2000-2024). Fiscaoeconomia, Volume: 10 Issue: 3. https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1697546

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