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Journals / Kapanaltı Dergisi / 2023 / Sayı: 4

AN ANALYSIS OF THE NEXUS BETWEEN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND SOCIAL SECURITY CONTRIBUTIONS: EVIDENCE FROM COINTEGRATION AND CAUSALITY TESTS

İŞSİZLİK ORANI İLE SOSYAL GÜVENLİK PRİMLERİ ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN ANALİZİ: EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME VE NEDENSELLİK TESTLERİNDEN KANITLAR

Ali BALKI
Pages
142–154
Publication Date
2023-10-25
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Based on these results, policies that will reduce social security contributions and support economic growth should be followed to reduce the unemployment rate in Türkiye.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

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Objective & Hypothesis:This study investigates the relationships between the unemployment rate, social security contributions, and economic growth rate in the Türkiye sample for 1988-2021.
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Key Findings & Data:The findings from the augmented ARDL bounds test and the Toda-Yamamoto causality test can be listed as follows: (i.) There is a long-term cointegration relationship between the unemployment rate, social security contributions, and economic growth rate, and these variables move together. (ii.) A 1% increase in social security contributions increases the unemployment rate by 0.36%. (iii.) A 1% increase in the economic growth rate reduces the unemployment rate by 0.51%. (iv.) There is a one-way causality relationship from social security contributions to the unemployment rate, from the unemployment rate to economic growth, and from economic growth to social security contributions.
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Conclusion & Impact:Based on these results, policies that will reduce social security contributions and support economic growth should be followed to reduce the unemployment rate in Türkiye.
🔬Design:Research Article
📍Scope:2021 Verileri
⚙️Variables:İşsizlik · Sosyal Güvenlik Primleri · Ekonomik Büyüme

Abstract

This study investigates the relationships between the unemployment rate, social security contributions, and economic growth rate in the Türkiye sample for 1988-2021. The findings from the augmented ARDL bounds test and the Toda-Yamamoto causality test can be listed as follows: (i.) There is a long-term cointegration relationship between the unemployment rate, social security contributions, and economic growth rate, and these variables move together. (ii.) A 1% increase in social security contributions increases the unemployment rate by 0.36%. (iii.) A 1% increase in the economic growth rate reduces the unemployment rate by 0.51%. (iv.) There is a one-way causality relationship from social security contributions to the unemployment rate, from the unemployment rate to economic growth, and from economic growth to social security contributions. Based on these results, policies that will reduce social security contributions and support economic growth should be followed to reduce the unemployment rate in Türkiye.

Özet

Bu çalışmada işsizlik oranı ile sosyal güvenlik primleri ve ekonomik büyüme oranı arasındaki ilişkiler Türkiye örnekleminde 1988-2021 dönemi için araştırılmıştır. Genişletilmiş ARDL sınır testi ve Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testinden elde edilen bulgular şu şekilde sıralanabilir: (i.) İşsizlik oranı, sosyal güvenlik primleri ve ekonomik büyüme oranı arasında uzun dönemde eşbütünleşme ilişkisi bulunmakta olup bu değişkenler birlikte hareket etmektedir. (ii.) Sosyal güvenlik primlerindeki %1’lik bir artış işsizlik oranını %0,36 artırmaktadır. (iii.) Ekonomik büyüme oranının %1 artması işsizlik oranını %0,51 azaltmaktadır. (iv.) Sosyal güvenlik primlerinden işsizlik oranına doğru; işsizlik oranından ekonomik büyümeye doğru ve ekonomik büyümeden sosyal güvenlik primlerine doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmaktadır. Bu sonuçlardan hareketle, Türkiye’de işsizlik oranını düşürmek için sosyal güvenlik primlerini azaltacak, ekonomik büyümeye katkı sağlayacak politikalar izlenmelidir.

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Cite This Article

BALKI, A. (2023). AN ANALYSIS OF THE NEXUS BETWEEN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND SOCIAL SECURITY CONTRIBUTIONS: EVIDENCE FROM COINTEGRATION AND CAUSALITY TESTS. Kapanaltı Dergisi, Sayı: 4, 142–154. https://ajindex.com/articles/970826

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