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Journals / Türkiye Su Bilimi ve Yönetimi Dergisi / 2020 / Cilt: 4 Sayı: 2

Investigation of The Effect of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation: Tekirdağ Case

Sertac Oruc(AHI EVRAN UNIVERSITY)
Pages
136–161
Publication Date
2020-07-24
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Considering the projected data driven analyses results; for shorter return periods results show smaller variations while variability increase with the increasing return period.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This study examines the potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation in a specific location, Tekirdağ, Turkey.
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Key Findings & Data:Trends in rainfall extremes for (1963-2015 period) observed data of 5, 10, 15, 30 minutes and 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 12, 18, 24 hours are determined by using 1:1 straight line method and Mann-Kendall trend test.
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Conclusion & Impact:Considering the projected data driven analyses results; for shorter return periods results show smaller variations while variability increase with the increasing return period.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2015 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Climate change · extreme rainfall · quantile mapping

Abstract

This study examines the potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation in a specific location, Tekirdağ, Turkey. Trends in rainfall extremes for (1963-2015 period) observed data of 5, 10, 15, 30 minutes and 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 12, 18, 24 hours are determined by using 1:1 straight line method and Mann-Kendall trend test. Also, daily (24h) future projections for Tekirdağ region are assessed and bias corrected with Quantile Mapping method for the 2015-2050 period. Subsequently, observed and bias corrected daily (24h) time series are used for the Generalized Extreme Value analyses to quantify the potential changes with respect to observation period. Most of the observed time series show increasing trend tendency. Considering the projected data driven analyses results; for shorter return periods results show smaller variations while variability increase with the increasing return period. Depending on the models and Representative Concentration Pathways, there are different results for the future extreme rainfall; yet all results indicate an increasing extreme daily rainfall magnitude at Tekirdağ Province.

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Cite This Article

Oruc, S. (2020). Investigation of The Effect of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation: Tekirdağ Case. Türkiye Su Bilimi ve Yönetimi Dergisi, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 2, 136–161. https://doi.org/10.31807/tjwsm.746134

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