SavedAdd your journal

Journals / Turkish Journal of Civil Engineering / 2022 / Cilt: 33 - Sayı: 2

Investigation of the Effect of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation: Capital Ankara Case

Sertac ORUC
İsmail YÜCEL
Ayşen YILMAZ
Pages
11749–11778
Publication Date
2022-03-01
DOI
—
🏛️Bibliographic metadata and full text access for this article are provided via DergiPark.
DergiPark Record ↗
✨

AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Depending on the models and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), there are different results for the future extreme rainfall input; yet all results indicate a decreasing extreme trend.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This study examines the potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation.
📊
Key Findings & Data:Rainfall analysis with stationary and nonstationary approach for observed and future conditions is performed for (1950-2015 period) observed data of 5, 10, 15, 30 minutes and 1, 2, 3, 6 hour and projections (2015-2098 period) of 10, 15 minutes and 1, 6 hour for Ankara province, Turkey.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:Depending on the models and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), there are different results for the future extreme rainfall input; yet all results indicate a decreasing extreme trend.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2015 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Climate Change · Stormwater · Nonstationary

Abstract

This study examines the potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation. Rainfall analysis with stationary and nonstationary approach for observed and future conditions is performed for (1950-2015 period) observed data of 5, 10, 15, 30 minutes and 1, 2, 3, 6 hour and projections (2015-2098 period) of 10, 15 minutes and 1, 6 hour for Ankara province, Turkey. Daily projections are disaggregated to finer scales, 5 minutes storm durations, then five minutes time series aggregated to the storm durations that are subject of interest. Nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) models and stationary GEV models for observed and future data are obtained. Nonstationary model results are in general exhibited smaller return level values with respect to stationary model results of each storm duration for observed data driven model results. Considering the projected data driven model results; on average nonstationary models produce mostly lower return levels for mid and longer return periods for all storm durations and return periods except one hour storm duration. Depending on the models and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), there are different results for the future extreme rainfall input; yet all results indicate a decreasing extreme trend.

Özet

This study examines the potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation. Rainfall analysis with stationary and nonstationary approach for observed and future conditions is performed for (1950-2015 period) observed data of 5, 10, 15, 30 minutes and 1, 2, 3, 6 hour and projections (2015-2098 period) of 10, 15 minutes and 1, 6 hour for Ankara province, Turkey. Daily projections are disaggregated to finer scales, 5 minutes storm durations, then five minutes time series aggregated to the storm durations that are subject of interest. Nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) models and stationary GEV models for observed and future data are obtained. Nonstationary model results are in general exhibited smaller return level values with respect to stationary model results of each storm duration for observed data driven model results. Considering the projected data driven model results; on average nonstationary models produce mostly lower return levels for mid and longer return periods for all storm durations and return periods except one hour storm duration. Depending on the models and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), there are different results for the future extreme rainfall input; yet all results indicate a decreasing extreme trend.

🔖

Cite This Article

ORUC, S., YÜCEL, İ., YILMAZ, A. (2022). Investigation of the Effect of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation: Capital Ankara Case. Turkish Journal of Civil Engineering, Cilt: 33 - Sayı: 2, 11749–11778. https://ajindex.com/articles/864137

📄 Full Text PDF Viewer

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

References (7)

  1. IPCC, (2013). Climate change 2013. The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  2. IPCC, (2014a). Climate change 2014. Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  3. IPCC, (2014b). Climate change 2014. Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  4. Osborn, T. J., Gosling, S., Wallace, C., & Dorling, S. (2015). The Water Cycle in a Changing Climate. 7th World Water Forum. Faircount Media Group, London, 14–19
  5. Zhou, Q., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Mikkelsen, P. S., Nielsen, S. B., & Halsnæs, K. (2012). Urban drainage design and climate change adaptation decision making. Kgs. Lyngby: DTU Environment [6] Papagiannaki, K., Lagouvardos, K., Kotroni, V., & Bezes, A. (2015). Flash flood occurrence and relation to the rainfall hazard in a highly urbanized area, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1859-1871 [7] Willems, P. “Revision of Urban Drainage Design Rules after Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Precipitation Extremes at Uccle, Belgium.” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 496, 2013, pp. 166–177., doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.05.037
  6. Liew, S. C., Raghavan, S. V., & Liong, S.Y. (2014). How to construct future IDF curves, under changing climate, for sites with scarce rainfall records?. Hydrol. Process., 28, 3276–3287. doi:10.1002/hyp.9839 [9] Pohl, B., Macron, C., & Monerie, P-A. (2017). Fewer rainy days and more extreme rainfall by the end of the century in Southern Africa. Scientific Reports, 7, 46466. doi: 10.1038/srep46466 [10] Seneviratne, S. I., Nicholls, N., Easterling, D., Goodess, C. M., Kanae, S., & Kossin, J. (2012). Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY
  7. Ozturk, T., Turp, M. T., Türkeş, M., & Kurnaz, M. L. (2018). Future projections of temperature and precipitation climatology for CORDEX-MENA domain using RegCM4.4. Atmospheric Research, 206, 87-107. doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.02.00 [12] Kusunoki, S., (2017). Future changes in global precipitation projected by the atmospheric model MRI-AGCM3.2H with a 60-km size. Atmosphere, 8, 93 [13] Buttstadt, M., & Schneider, C. (2014). Climate change signal of fut