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Journals / Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi / 2021 / Cilt: 0 - Sayı: 58

DOES THE AGING POPULATION BECOME A CONSTRAINT TO THE GROWTH OF TURKISH ECONOMY? NEW EVIDENCE FROM TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

YAŞLANAN NÜFUS TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNİN BÜYÜMESİNE ENGEL OLUYOR MU? ZAMAN SERİSİ ANALİZİNDEN YENİ KANITLAR

Murat ÇETİN
Rabia DOĞAN
Özge YILDIZ
Eyyüp ECEVİT
Pages
367–397
Publication Date
2022-10-18
DOI
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The findings revealed that the variables are cointegrated.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This study deals with the relationship between population aging and economic growth inTurkey during 1970-2018 and includes domestic savings, consumption expenditures, and financialdevelopment in the growth specification as additional variables.
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Key Findings & Data:The findings revealed that the variables are cointegrated.
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Conclusion & Impact:Therefore, this study can provide several policy implicationsto speed economic growth in the Turkish economy.
🔬Design:Research Article
📍Scope:2018 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

This study deals with the relationship between population aging and economic growth inTurkey during 1970-2018 and includes domestic savings, consumption expenditures, and financialdevelopment in the growth specification as additional variables. The Johansen and ARDL boundstest for cointegration analysis were used. Moreover, DOLS and CCR estimators were used toestimate the long-run coefficients. The VECM causality procedure was employed for causalityanalysis. The findings revealed that the variables are cointegrated. The findings showed thatpopulation aging, and financial development negatively affected economic growth while domesticsavings and consumption expenditures were positively related to economic growth in the long-run.The findings also indicated that bidirectional causality exists between all the independent variablesand economic growth in the long-run. Therefore, this study can provide several policy implicationsto speed economic growth in the Turkish economy.

Özet

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de 1970-2018 döneminde nüfusun yaşlanması ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi ele almakta ve ek değişkenler olarak büyüme spesifikasyonunda yurt içi tasarrufları, tüketim harcamalarını ve finansal gelişmeyi içermektedir. Eşbütünleşme analizi için Johansen ve ARDL sınır testi kullanıldı. Ayrıca, uzun dönem katsayılarını tahmin etmek için DOLS ve CCR tahmin edicileri kullanıldı. Nedensellik analizi için VECM nedensellik prosedürüne başvuruldu. Bulgular, değişkenlerin eşbütünleşik olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Sonuçlar, nüfusun yaşlanması ve finansal gelişmenin ekonomik büyümeyi olumsuz etkilediğini, yurtiçi tasarrufların ve tüketim harcamalarının ise uzun vadede ekonomik büyümeyle pozitif yönde ilişkili olduğunu göstermiştir. Ayrıca, uzun vadede tüm bağımsız değişkenler ve ekonomik büyüme arasında çift yönlü nedenselliğin var olduğunu göstermiştir. Bu nedenle, bu çalışma Türkiye ekonomisinde ekonomik büyümeyi hızlandırmada çeşitli politika uygulamaları sağlayabilir.

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Cite This Article

ÇETİN, M., DOĞAN, R., YILDIZ, Ö., ECEVİT, E. (2022). DOES THE AGING POPULATION BECOME A CONSTRAINT TO THE GROWTH OF TURKISH ECONOMY? NEW EVIDENCE FROM TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt: 0 - Sayı: 58, 367–397. https://ajindex.com/articles/503355

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