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Journals / Bölgesel Kalkınma Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 04 Sayı: 02

REGIONAL INCOME DYNAMICS IN TÜRKİYE: CONVERGENCE, SPATIAL SPILLOVERS, AND STRUCTURAL DETERMINANTS

TÜRKİYE’DE BÖLGESEL GELİR DİNAMİKLERİ: YAKINSAMA, MEKANSAL YAYILMA ETKİLERİ VE YAPISAL BELİRLEYİCİLER

Nilüfer Kaya Kanlı(IZMIR UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS)0000-0001-9049-3862
Pages
186–205
Publication Date
2026-10-27
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The results show that income convergence slowed considerably over time and varied across sub-periods.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

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Objective & Hypothesis:This study examines income convergence across Turkish provinces over the period 2004-2023 by combining traditional convergence analysis with spatial econometric methods.
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Key Findings & Data:To account for structural heterogeneity across regions, the empirical framework incorporates net migration rates, trade openness, educational attainment, and digital infrastructure measured by per-capita fiber-optic cable length.
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Conclusion & Impact:The results show that income convergence slowed considerably over time and varied across sub-periods.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2004-2023 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Koşulsuz Yakınsama · Koşullu Yakınsama · Bölgesel Eşitsizlik

Abstract

This study examines income convergence across Turkish provinces over the period 2004-2023 by combining traditional convergence analysis with spatial econometric methods. Both unconditional and conditional convergence models are estimated using provincial data. To account for structural heterogeneity across regions, the empirical framework incorporates net migration rates, trade openness, educational attainment, and digital infrastructure measured by per-capita fiber-optic cable length. The results show that income convergence slowed considerably over time and varied across sub-periods. The estimated speed of convergence declined from 1.77% per year during 2004-2013 to 0.76% during 2013-2023, while convergence is not statistically significant for 2020-2023. Moran’s I values remain high (0.64 0.69) throughout the sample period, indicating persistent positive spatial dependence among provinces. Spatial panel models further reveal significant regional spillovers, with the spatial autoregressive coefficient ranging from 0.295 to 0.776 across estimation periods. Overall, the findings suggest that regional income dynamics in Türkiye are shaped by both structural factors and spatial interactions, highlighting the need for region-specific and spatially coordinated development policies.

Özet

Bu çalışma, 2004-2023 döneminde Türkiye’de iller arasındaki gelir yakınsamasını geleneksel yakınsama analizi ile mekansal ekonometri yöntemlerini birleştirerek incelemektedir. Analizde il düzeyindeki veriler kullanılarak hem koşulsuz hem de koşullu yakınsama modelleri tahmin edilmiştir. Bölgeler arasındaki yapısal farklılıkları dikkate almak amacıyla ampirik çerçeveye net göç oranı, ticari açıklık, eğitim düzeyi ve kişi başına düşen fiber optik kablo uzunluğu ile ölçülen dijital altyapı değişkenleri dahil edilmiştir. Bulgular, gelir yakınsamasının zaman içinde belirgin biçimde yavaşladığını ve alt dönemler arasında farklılaştığını göstermektedir. Tahmin edilen yakınsama hızı 2004-2013 döneminde yıllık %1,77 iken, 2013-2023 döneminde %0,76’ya gerilemiş; 2020-2023 dönemi için ise yakınsama anlamlı değildir. Moran’s I değerleri analiz dönemi boyunca yüksek düzeyde (0,64-0,69) seyrederek iller arasında kalıcı pozitif mekansal bağımlılığın varlığını göstermektedir. Mekansal panel modelleri de mekansal otoregresif katsayının tahmin dönemlerine göre 0,295 ile 0,776 arasında değiştiğini ortaya koyarak anlamlı bölgesel yayılma etkilerini doğrulamaktadır. Genel olarak bulgular, Türkiye’de bölgesel gelir dinamiklerinin hem yapısal faktörler hem de mekansal etkileşimler tarafından şekillendiğini ortaya koymakta ve bölgelere özgü, mekansal açıdan koordineli kalkınma politikalarına duyulan ihtiyacı vurgulamaktadır.

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Cite This Article

Kanlı, N. K. (2026). REGIONAL INCOME DYNAMICS IN TÜRKİYE: CONVERGENCE, SPATIAL SPILLOVERS, AND STRUCTURAL DETERMINANTS. Bölgesel Kalkınma Dergisi, Cilt: 04 Sayı: 02, 186–205. https://doi.org/10.61138/bolgeselkalkinmadergisi.1932870

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