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Journals / Verimlilik Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 60 Sayı: 4

Heterogeneous Effects of Green Complexity, Economic Complexity, and Human Development on CO₂ Emissions: Evidence from OECD Countries

Yeşil Karmaşıklık, Ekonomik Karmaşıklık ve İnsani Kalkınmanın CO₂ Emisyonları Üzerindeki Heterojen Etkileri: OECD Ülkelerinden Kanıtlar

Kadriye Nurdanay Öztürk(BİLECİK ŞEYH EDEBALİ ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0003-4108-993X
Serpil Türkyılmaz(BİLECİK ŞEYH EDEBALİ ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-7193-4148
Pages
1043–1058
Publication Date
2026-10-21
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Findings: The results show that ECI consistently has a positive and significant effect on CO₂ emissions, particularly at the lower, middle, and upper quantile levels.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

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Objective & Hypothesis:Purpose: This study examines the heterogeneous effects of the Human Development Index (HDI), Green Complexity Potential (GCP), and Economic Complexity (ECI) on per capita CO₂ emissions in OECD countries.
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Key Findings & Data:Methodology: Changes in relationships between different emission intensity levels, reflecting differences in environmental performance due to social and technological development, are captured using the Panel Quantile Regression approach.
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Conclusion & Impact:Findings: The results show that ECI consistently has a positive and significant effect on CO₂ emissions, particularly at the lower, middle, and upper quantile levels.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:Comprehensive Sample
⚙️Variables:Yeşil Karmaşıklık · Ekonomik Karmaşıklık · CO2 Emisyonu

Abstract

Purpose: This study examines the heterogeneous effects of the Human Development Index (HDI), Green Complexity Potential (GCP), and Economic Complexity (ECI) on per capita CO₂ emissions in OECD countries. Methodology: Changes in relationships between different emission intensity levels, reflecting differences in environmental performance due to social and technological development, are captured using the Panel Quantile Regression approach. Findings: The results show that ECI consistently has a positive and significant effect on CO₂ emissions, particularly at the lower, middle, and upper quantile levels. This suggests that more complex economies tend to generate higher emissions. HDI becomes increasingly effective at higher quantiles, indicating that advanced levels of human development are associated with higher energy demand. In contrast, GCP exhibits a negative correlation in countries with high CO₂ emissions, reflecting the mitigating potential of green innovation and technological diversification. Originality: Understanding the determinants of carbon (CO₂) emissions is crucial for designing effective low-carbon transition policies in advanced economies. Findings highlight that average-based estimators such as OLS may underestimate the asymmetric and distributional nature of emission factors. The results offer important policy recommendations for integrating green complexity, economic complexity, and human development into carbon reduction strategies and sustainable growth planning in advanced economies.

Özet

Amaç: OECD ülkelerinde kişi başına düşen CO₂ emisyonları üzerindeki insani kalkınma endeksi (HDI), yeşil karmaşıklık potansiyeli (GCP) ve ekonomik karmaşıklığın (ECI) heterojen etkilerini incelemektir. Yöntem: Sosyal ve teknolojik gelişme ile çevresel performanstaki farklılıkları yansıtan farklı emisyon yoğunluğu seviyelerindeki ilişkilerdeki değişiklikler Panel Kantil Regresyon yaklaşımı kullanılarak yakalanmaktadır. Bulgular: Sonuçlar ECI 'nin özellikle alt, orta ve üst kantil seviyelerinde CO₂ emisyonları üzerinde sürekli olarak pozitif ve anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu, daha karmaşık ekonomilerin daha yüksek emisyon üretme eğiliminde olduğunu ifade etmektedir. HDI, daha yüksek kantillerde giderek daha etkili hale gelmekte ve gelişmiş insani kalkınma seviyelerinin daha yüksek enerji talebiyle ilişkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna karşılık, GCP, yüksek CO₂ emisyonlarına sahip ülkelerde negatif bir ilişki sergilemekte ve yeşil inovasyon ve teknolojik çeşitlendirmenin azaltıcı potansiyelini yansıtmaktadır. Özgünlük: Gelişmiş ekonomilerde etkili düşük karbonlu geçiş politikaları tasarlamak için karbon (CO₂) emisyonlarının belirleyicilerini anlamak çok önemlidir. Bulgular, OLS gibi ortalama tabanlı tahmincilerin emisyon faktörlerinin asimetrik ve dağılımsal doğasını hafife alabileceğini vurgulamaktadır. Sonuçlar, gelişmiş ekonomilerde yeşil karmaşıklığı, ekonomik karmaşıklığı ve insani kalkınmayı karbon azaltma stratejilerine ve sürdürülebilir büyüme planlamasına entegre etmek için önemli politika önerileri sunmaktadır.

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Cite This Article

Öztürk, K. N., Türkyılmaz, S. (2026). Heterogeneous Effects of Green Complexity, Economic Complexity, and Human Development on CO₂ Emissions: Evidence from OECD Countries. Verimlilik Dergisi, Cilt: 60 Sayı: 4, 1043–1058. https://doi.org/10.51551/verimlilik.1881878

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