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Journals / Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 28 Sayı: Özel Sayı Özel Sayı

Target Market Selection for Türkiye’s Plastic Packaging Exports: An Evaluation Using LOPCOW and SPOTIS

Türkiye’nin Plastik Ambalaj Mamulleri İhracatında Hedef Pazar Seçimi: LOPCOW ve SPOTIS Yöntemleriyle Değerlendirme

Şule Güngör(TARSUS ÜNİVERSİTESİ, MESLEK YÜKSEKOKULU)0000-0002-6154-8817
Pages
317–332
Publication Date
2026-10-21
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The study demonstrates that robust markets and those sensitive to strategic assumptions should be evaluated together rather than relying on a single final ranking.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This study aims to identify the priority foreign markets for Türkiye's exports of plastic packaging products under HS 3923, which covers plastic articles for the conveyance or packing of goods and plastic closures.
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Key Findings & Data:The study used secondary foreign trade data at the country and product level for 2019-2023 from the UN Comtrade database.
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Conclusion & Impact:The study demonstrates that robust markets and those sensitive to strategic assumptions should be evaluated together rather than relying on a single final ranking.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2019-2023 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Uluslararası Hedef Pazar Seçimi · Plastik Ambalaj Mamulleri · LOPCOW

Abstract

This study aims to identify the priority foreign markets for Türkiye's exports of plastic packaging products under HS 3923, which covers plastic articles for the conveyance or packing of goods and plastic closures. The study used secondary foreign trade data at the country and product level for 2019-2023 from the UN Comtrade database. Candidate countries were selected through a two-stage process considering data continuity, market size, and growth conditions, and 42 countries were included as decision alternatives. Average market size, compound annual growth rate of imports, average imports from Türkiye, and Türkiye's total market share in the target country were used to evaluate the target markets. Criterion weights were calculated using the Logarithmic Percentage Change-driven Objective Weighting (LOPCOW) method, and country alternatives were ranked using the Stable Preference Ordering Towards Ideal Solution (SPOTIS) method. In the main model, Türkiye's market share was treated as a cost criterion, with a lower market share indicating greater potential for export expansion. The highest weight was given to the market share criterion; Nicaragua, Spain, Poland, the USA, and Kazakhstan ranked in the top five in the main model. Sensitivity analysis showed that the rankings were particularly sensitive to the direction of the market share criterion. Spain, Poland, and Italy remained in the top 10 across all three scenarios as consistently high-priority target markets. The study demonstrates that robust markets and those sensitive to strategic assumptions should be evaluated together rather than relying on a single final ranking.

Özet

Bu çalışma, malların taşınması veya ambalajlanmasında kullanılan plastik ürünler ile plastik kapatma elemanlarını kapsayan HS 3923 kapsamında Türkiye’nin plastik ambalaj mamulleri ihracatı için öncelikli dış pazarları belirlemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Araştırmada UN Comtrade veri tabanından elde edilen 2019-2023 dönemine ait ülke ve ürün düzeyindeki ikincil dış ticaret verileri kullanılmıştır. Aday ülkeler veri sürekliliği, pazar büyüklüğü ve büyüme koşulları dikkate alınarak iki aşamalı bir süreçle seçilmiş ve 42 ülke karar alternatifi olarak analize dâhil edilmiştir. Hedef pazarların değerlendirilmesinde ortalama pazar büyüklüğü, ithalat bileşik yıllık büyüme oranı, Türkiye’den ortalama ithalat ve Türkiye’nin hedef ülkedeki toplam pazar payı kriterleri kullanılmıştır. Kriter ağırlıkları Logaritmik Yüzde Değişim Odaklı Objektif Ağırlıklandırma (LOPCOW) yöntemiyle hesaplanmış, ülke alternatifleri İdeal Çözüme Doğru İstikrarlı Tercih Sıralaması (SPOTIS) yöntemiyle sıralanmıştır. Ana modelde Türkiye’nin pazar payı maliyet kriteri olarak ele alınmış ve daha düşük pazar payı daha yüksek ihracat genişleme potansiyeli olarak yorumlanmıştır. En yüksek ağırlık pazar payı kriterine verilmiş ve Nikaragua, İspanya, Polonya, ABD ile Kazakistan ana modelde ilk beş sırada yer almıştır. Duyarlılık analizi sıralamaların özellikle pazar payı kriterinin yönüne duyarlı olduğunu göstermiştir. İspanya, Polonya ve İtalya üç senaryonun tamamında ilk 10’da kalarak istikrarlı biçimde yüksek öncelikli hedef pazarlar olarak öne çıkmıştır. Çalışma, sağlam konumunu koruyan pazarlar ile stratejik varsayımlara duyarlı pazarların tek bir nihai sıralamaya dayanmak yerine birlikte değerlendirilmesi gerektiğini göstermektedir.

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Cite This Article

Güngör, Ş. (2026). Target Market Selection for Türkiye’s Plastic Packaging Exports: An Evaluation Using LOPCOW and SPOTIS. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt: 28 Sayı: Özel Sayı Özel Sayı, 317–332. https://doi.org/10.33707/akuiibfd.1970708

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