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Journals / Uluslararası İşletme Bilimi ve Uygulamaları Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2

Tax Revenue Sustainability and Macroeconomic Stability in Nigeria: A Quantitative Time-Series Analysis (2000–2024)

Nijerya’da Vergi Gelirlerinin Sürdürülebilirliği ve Makroekonomik İstikrar: Nicel Bir Zaman Serisi Analizi (2000–2024)

Alli Noah(Federal Polytechnic Offa)0000-0002-8311-9634
Pages
114–127
Publication Date
2026-08-24
DOI
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The study recommends urgent tax base broadening, institutional reform, and fiscal-monetary policy coordination as priority interventions for macroeconomic stabilisation in Nigeria.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

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Objective & Hypothesis:This quantitative study investigates the effect of tax revenue sustainability on macroeconomic stability in Nigeria over the period 2000–2024.
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Key Findings & Data:Employing Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Johansen cointegration, Vector Error Correction Modelling (VECM), and the Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test, the study operationalises tax revenue sustainability through three indicators, the tax-to-GDP ratio, tax buoyancy, and tax structure composition, and measures macroeconomic stability via output volatility (GDP growth), the inflation rate, and the unemployment rate.
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Conclusion & Impact:The study recommends urgent tax base broadening, institutional reform, and fiscal-monetary policy coordination as priority interventions for macroeconomic stabilisation in Nigeria.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2000–2024 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Vergi Gelirlerinin Sürdürülebilirliği · Vergi/GSYİH Oranı · Vergi Canlılığı

Abstract

This quantitative study investigates the effect of tax revenue sustainability on macroeconomic stability in Nigeria over the period 2000–2024. Employing Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Johansen cointegration, Vector Error Correction Modelling (VECM), and the Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test, the study operationalises tax revenue sustainability through three indicators, the tax-to-GDP ratio, tax buoyancy, and tax structure composition, and measures macroeconomic stability via output volatility (GDP growth), the inflation rate, and the unemployment rate. Annual secondary data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, the Federal Inland Revenue Service Annual Reports, and the National Bureau of Statistics. Results reveal that: (i) the tax-to-GDP ratio exerts a statistically significant negative effect on output volatility (B = −0.4231, p < 0.05); (ii) tax buoyancy significantly reduces the inflation rate (B = −2.176, p < 0.05); and (iii) non-oil tax structure composition significantly reduces unemployment (B = −0.6814, p < 0.05). The error correction terms for all three models are negative and statistically significant, confirming long-run convergence toward equilibrium. Diagnostic tests, heteroskedasticity, serial correlation, normality, and CUSUM stability, confirm model reliability. The study recommends urgent tax base broadening, institutional reform, and fiscal-monetary policy coordination as priority interventions for macroeconomic stabilisation in Nigeria.

Özet

Bu nicel çalışma, 2000-2024 dönemi boyunca Nijerya'da vergi gelirlerinin sürdürülebilirliğinin makroekonomik istikrar üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktadır. Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme (ARDL) sınır testi, Genişletilmiş Dickey-Fuller (ADF) birim kök testi, Johansen eşbütünleşme, Vektör Hata Düzeltme Modellemesi (VECM) ve Toda-Yamamoto Granger nedensellik testi kullanılarak, çalışma vergi gelirlerinin sürdürülebilirliğini üç göstergeyle (vergi/GSYİH oranı, vergi esnekliği ve vergi yapısı bileşimi) işlevselleştirmekte ve makroekonomik istikrarı çıktı oynaklığı (GSYİH büyümesi), enflasyon oranı ve işsizlik oranı aracılığıyla ölçmektedir. Yıllık ikincil veriler Nijerya Merkez Bankası İstatistik Bülteni, Federal Gelir İdaresi Yıllık Raporları ve Ulusal İstatistik Bürosu'ndan elde edilmiştir. Sonuçlar şunu ortaya koymaktadır: (i) vergi/GSYİH oranı, çıktı oynaklığı üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı negatif bir etkiye sahiptir (β = −0,4231, p < 0,05); (ii) Vergi artışı enflasyon oranını önemli ölçüde düşürmektedir (β = −2,176, p < 0,05); ve (iii) petrol dışı vergi yapısı bileşimi işsizliği önemli ölçüde düşürmektedir (β = −0,6814, p < 0,05). Her üç model için hata düzeltme terimleri negatiftir ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır, bu da uzun vadeli dengeye yakınsamayı doğrulamaktadır. Tanısal testler, heteroskedastisite , seri korelasyon, normallik ve CUSUM istikrarı, model güvenilirliğini doğrulamaktadır. Çalışma, Nijerya'da makroekonomik istikrar için öncelikli müdahaleler olarak acil vergi tabanı genişletme, kurumsal reform ve mali-para politikası koordinasyonunu önermektedir.

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Cite This Article

Noah, A. (2026). Tax Revenue Sustainability and Macroeconomic Stability in Nigeria: A Quantitative Time-Series Analysis (2000–2024). Uluslararası İşletme Bilimi ve Uygulamaları Dergisi, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 114–127. https://ajindex.com/articles/1623500

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