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Journals / İktisat İşletme ve Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi / 2025 / Cilt: 4 Sayı: 2

TURKEY’S GOLD IMPORTS AND MACROECONOMİC VULNERABİLİTİES: A COUNTERFACTUAL ANALYSİS FOR THE 1995–2024 PERİOD

TÜRKİYE’NİN ALTIN İTHALATI VE MAKROEKONOMİK KIRILGANLIKLAR: 1995–2024 DÖNEMİ İÇİN KARŞI-OLGUSAL BİR ANALİZ

Metin Duyar(IĞDIR ÜNİVERSİTESİ, İKTİSADİ VE İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ)0000-0003-4326-608X
Pages
310–346
Publication Date
2025-12-31
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Policy implications emphasize import regulation, the promotion of domestic gold supply, and strategic reserve management.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This study analyzes the macroeconomic implications of Turkey’s gold imports—totaling USD 251.9 billion between 1995 and 2024—through a counterfactual scenario.
📊
Key Findings & Data:It assumes that gold imports were constrained to near-zero levels and investigates how such a policy could have influenced reserves, the current account balance, and the exchange rate.
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Conclusion & Impact:Policy implications emphasize import regulation, the promotion of domestic gold supply, and strategic reserve management.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2024 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Altın İthalatı · Cari Açık · Döviz Rezervleri

Abstract

This study analyzes the macroeconomic implications of Turkey’s gold imports—totaling USD 251.9 billion between 1995 and 2024—through a counterfactual scenario. It assumes that gold imports were constrained to near-zero levels and investigates how such a policy could have influenced reserves, the current account balance, and the exchange rate. A simulation model built on annual gold import data reveals an average potential saving of USD 8.4 billion per year. ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) and TVP-VAR (Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression) estimations further illustrate how monetary equilibrium would respond to these changes. Findings suggest that gold imports function as a systemic foreign exchange leakage, undermine monetary transmission, and intensify exchange rate volatility. Policy implications emphasize import regulation, the promotion of domestic gold supply, and strategic reserve management.

Özet

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’nin 1995–2024 döneminde gerçekleştirdiği toplam 251,9 milyar USD tutarındaki altın ithalatının makroekonomik etkilerini karşı-olgusal senaryo yaklaşımıyla incelemektedir. Varsayımsal olarak altın ithalatının sıfıra yakın düzeyde tutulduğu bir senaryoda Türkiye’nin döviz rezervleri, cari işlemler dengesi ve döviz kuru gibi temel göstergelerinin nasıl şekilleneceği analiz edilmiştir. Yıllık altın ithalat verileri üzerinden geliştirilen senaryo modeli, ortalama 8,4 milyar USD’lik potansiyel yıllık döviz tasarrufunu ortaya koymakta; ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) ve TVP-VAR (Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression) modelleri ise parasal dengenin bu değişimlere verdiği tepkileri göstermektedir. Bulgular, altın ithalatının üretime dönmeyen yapısıyla sistemik bir döviz sızıntısı oluşturduğunu, kur istikrarsızlığını artırdığını ve parasal aktarım mekanizmasını zayıflattığını ortaya koymaktadır. Politika önerileri, ithalat regülasyonlarının güçlendirilmesi, yerli altın arzının teşviki ve rezerv yönetiminin yeniden yapılandırılması üzerine yoğunlaşmaktadır.

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Cite This Article

Duyar, M. (2025). TURKEY’S GOLD IMPORTS AND MACROECONOMİC VULNERABİLİTİES: A COUNTERFACTUAL ANALYSİS FOR THE 1995–2024 PERİOD. İktisat İşletme ve Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 2, 310–346. https://doi.org/10.58654/jebi.1770452

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