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Journals / Bölgesel Araştırmalar Dergisi / 2025 / Cilt: 9 Sayı: 2

Israel’s Capacity for Expansion Without U.S. Support: A Counterfactual Study of Strategic Dependency

ABD Desteği Olmaksızın İsrail’in Genişleme Kapasitesi: Karşı-Olgusal Bir Simülasyon Analizi

Metin Duyar(IĞDIR ÜNİVERSİTESİ, İKTİSADİ VE İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ)0000-0003-4326-608X
Pages
171–196
Publication Date
2025-12-29
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The findings indicate that a reduction in U.S. support significantly constrains Israel’s expansion capacity not only in military terms but also across economic and diplomatic dimensions.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This study examines how Israel’s capacity for regional expansion changes under a counterfactual simulation model in scenarios where military, financial, and diplomatic support from the United States (U.S.) is reduced or withdrawn.
📊
Key Findings & Data:The central research question addresses whether Israel can sustain its expansion strategy in the event of a gradual withdrawal, sudden cutoff, or conditional continuation of U.S. support.
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Conclusion & Impact:The findings indicate that a reduction in U.S. support significantly constrains Israel’s expansion capacity not only in military terms but also across economic and diplomatic dimensions.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:Comprehensive Sample
⚙️Variables:Stratejik bağımlılık · asimetrik ittifaklar · karşı-olgusal modelleme

Abstract

This study examines how Israel’s capacity for regional expansion changes under a counterfactual simulation model in scenarios where military, financial, and diplomatic support from the United States (U.S.) is reduced or withdrawn. The central research question addresses whether Israel can sustain its expansion strategy in the event of a gradual withdrawal, sudden cutoff, or conditional continuation of U.S. support. To this end, a scenario-based simulation approach is employed, analyzing indicators such as military readiness, budgetary pressure, diplomatic isolation, and expansion feasibility on an annual basis. The findings indicate that a reduction in U.S. support significantly constrains Israel’s expansion capacity not only in military terms but also across economic and diplomatic dimensions. By engaging with the literature on asymmetric alliances and strategic dependency, the study demonstrates that state capacity cannot be evaluated independently of external support structures.

Özet

Bu çalışma, İsrail’in Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’nden (ABD) aldığı askerî, mali ve diplomatik desteğin azalması veya kesilmesi durumunda bölgesel genişleme kapasitesinin nasıl değişeceğini karşı-olgusal bir simülasyon modeli aracılığıyla incelemektedir. Araştırmanın temel sorusu, ABD desteğinin kademeli, ani ya da koşullu biçimde sona ermesi hâlinde İsrail’in genişleme stratejisini sürdürebilip sürdüremeyeceğidir. Bu amaçla üç senaryoya dayalı bir simülasyon yaklaşımı kullanılmış; askerî hazırlık düzeyi, bütçe baskısı, diplomatik izolasyon ve genişleme olasılığı göstergeleri yıllık dönemler itibarıyla analiz edilmiştir. Bulgular, ABD desteğinin azalmasının İsrail’in genişleme kapasitesini yalnızca askerî değil, aynı zamanda ekonomik ve diplomatik boyutlarda da belirgin biçimde sınırladığını göstermektedir. Çalışma, asimetrik ittifaklar ve stratejik bağımlılık literatürüne katkı sunarak, devlet kapasitesinin dış destekten bağımsız değerlendirilemeyeceğini ortaya koymaktadır.

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Cite This Article

Duyar, M. (2025). Israel’s Capacity for Expansion Without U.S. Support: A Counterfactual Study of Strategic Dependency. Bölgesel Araştırmalar Dergisi, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 2, 171–196. https://ajindex.com/articles/1468058

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