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Journals / İktisat İşletme ve Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1

JET FUEL PRICE SHOCKS AND AIRLINE STOCK RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM TÜRKİYE

Jet Yakıt Fiyat Şokları ve Hava Yolu Hisse Getirileri Türkiye Örneği

Ender Mehmet Şahinkoç(beykent üniversitesi)
Pages
102–123
Publication Date
2026-08-16
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

However, the correlation and regression results indicate that changes in jet fuel prices did not have a statistically significant effect on stock returns in the short term.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This study examines the short-term effects of war-induced jet fuel price shocks on the stocks of THYAO and PGSUS traded in the Turkish airline sector.
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Key Findings & Data:Weekly jet fuel prices and stock returns are used, and correlation analysis, contemporaneous and lagged linear regression models, as well as volatility comparisons are applied.
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Conclusion & Impact:However, the correlation and regression results indicate that changes in jet fuel prices did not have a statistically significant effect on stock returns in the short term.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:Comprehensive Sample
⚙️Variables:Jet yakıt fiyatı · havayolu hisseleri · savaş şoku

Abstract

This study examines the short-term effects of war-induced jet fuel price shocks on the stocks of THYAO and PGSUS traded in the Turkish airline sector. Weekly jet fuel prices and stock returns are used, and correlation analysis, contemporaneous and lagged linear regression models, as well as volatility comparisons are applied. The findings show that both stocks experienced a sudden and significant decline in the week the war began. However, the correlation and regression results indicate that changes in jet fuel prices did not have a statistically significant effect on stock returns in the short term. In the contemporaneous models, the estimated coefficients for THYAO and PGSUS are 0.035 and -0.053, respectively, but the results are not statistically significant. Similarly, no significant relationship is detected in the lagged models. The volatility analysis reveals that the volatility of both stocks decreased in the post-war period. This suggests that the market reacted sharply to the initial shock but reached a new equilibrium level within a short period. The findings are consistent with the literature suggesting that fuel price shocks create short-term but non-persistent effects on airline stocks.

Özet

Bu çalışma, savaş kaynaklı jet yakıt fiyat şoklarının Türkiye havayolu sektöründe işlem gören THYAO ve PGSUS hisseleri üzerindeki kısa dönem etkilerini incelemektedir. Analizde haftalık frekansta jet yakıt fiyatları ile hisse getirileri kullanılmış; korelasyon analizi, eş zamanlı ve gecikmeli doğrusal regresyon modelleri ile volatilite karşılaştırmaları uygulanmıştır. Bulgular, savaşın başladığı hafta her iki hisse senedinde de ani ve belirgin bir düşüş yaşandığını göstermektedir. Buna karşın korelasyon ve regresyon sonuçları, jet yakıt fiyat değişimlerinin hisse getirileri üzerinde kısa dönemde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisinin bulunmadığını ortaya koymuştur. Eş zamanlı modellerde THYAO ve PGSUS için katsayılar sırasıyla 0,035 ve -0,053 olarak tahmin edilmiş, ancak sonuçlar anlamlı bulunmamıştır. Benzer şekilde gecikmeli modellerde de anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilmemiştir. Volatilite analizi sonuçları, savaş sonrası dönemde her iki hissede oynaklığın azaldığını göstermektedir. Bu durum, piyasanın ilk şoka ani tepki verdiğini ancak kısa süre içerisinde yeni bir denge seviyesine ulaştığını göstermektedir. Sonuçlar, yakıt fiyat şoklarının havayolu hisseleri üzerinde kısa vadeli fakat kalıcı olmayan etkiler yarattığını gösteren literatür ile uyumludur.

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Cite This Article

Şahinkoç, E. M. (2026). JET FUEL PRICE SHOCKS AND AIRLINE STOCK RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM TÜRKİYE. İktisat İşletme ve Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 102–123. https://doi.org/10.58654/jebi.1923892

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