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Journals / Bankacılar / 2018 / Cilt: 29 - Sayı: 107

Optimal Taylor Rule in New Keynesian Approach Perspective: The Case of Turkey

Yeni Keynesyen Yaklaşım Perspektifinde Optimal Taylor Kuralı: Türkiye Örneği

OSMAN PEKER
Ayşegül Ladin SÜMER
Pages
77–96
DOI
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Our results indicate that the monetary policy rule, which takes into account the existence of central bank interest rate inertia, would be more objective.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:In the new Keynesian Approach, inflation deviations and output gap, which are influenced by demand and cost push shocks, are a signal for monetary policy.
📊
Key Findings & Data:Accordingly, the optimal Taylor rule is an aggressive relationship between central bank interest rate and inflation deviation and output gap.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:Our results indicate that the monetary policy rule, which takes into account the existence of central bank interest rate inertia, would be more objective.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2005 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

In the new Keynesian Approach, inflation deviations and output gap, which are influenced by demand and cost push shocks, are a signal for monetary policy. Accordingly, the optimal Taylor rule is an aggressive relationship between central bank interest rate and inflation deviation and output gap. In this study, alternative models of the Taylor rule under New Keynesian Approach is analyzed by VAR methods for 2005:M1-2017:M12 period in Turkey. In this direction, the original Taylor rule was used, including the interest rate smoothing coefficient and the exchange rate. Our results indicate that the monetary policy rule, which takes into account the existence of central bank interest rate inertia, would be more objective.

Özet

Yeni Keynesyen Yaklaşımda, talep şokları ve maliyet itişli şokların etkilediği enflasyon sapması ve çıktı açığı para politikası için sinyal niteliğindedir. Buna göre, optimal Taylor kuralı da merkez bankası faiz oranı ile enflasyon sapması ve çıktı açığı arasındaki agresif ilişkidir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de Yeni Keynesyen Yaklaşım kapsamında optimal Taylor kuralının alternatif modelleri 2005:M01-2017:M12 dönemi için VAR yöntemiyle analiz edilmiştir. Bu doğrultuda, orijinal Taylor kuralı faiz düzleştirme katsayısı ile döviz kuru dahil edilerek kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, merkez bankası faiz oranı ataletini dikkate alan bir para politikası kuralının daha objektif olacağına işaret etmektedir.

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Cite This Article

PEKER, O., SÜMER, A. L. (2018). Optimal Taylor Rule in New Keynesian Approach Perspective: The Case of Turkey. Bankacılar, Cilt: 29 - Sayı: 107, 77–96. https://ajindex.com/articles/158975

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