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Journals / Bankacılar / 2019 / Cilt: 30 - Sayı: 108

The Effects of Real Exchange Rate Movements on Exports:An Asymmetric Approach for Turkey

Reel Kur Hareketlerinin øhracat Üzerine Etkileri: Türkiye için Asimetrik Bir BakÕú

Selçuk GÜL
Pages
57–78
Publication Date
2022-10-11
DOI
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Findings indicate that exports are significantly affected by real exchange rate developments for the countries to which almost half of Turkey’s total exports are made.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

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Objective & Hypothesis:This study investigates the sensitivity of export demand to variations in foreign income and real exchange rate by examining the determinants of Turkish exports (excluding gold) with a demand side model.
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Key Findings & Data:Real exchange rate developments are modeled asymmetrically by the nonlinear ARDL method (NARDL).
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Conclusion & Impact:Findings indicate that exports are significantly affected by real exchange rate developments for the countries to which almost half of Turkey’s total exports are made.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:Comprehensive Sample
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

This study investigates the sensitivity of export demand to variations in foreign income and real exchange rate by examining the determinants of Turkish exports (excluding gold) with a demand side model. To minimize the aggregation bias caused by using aggregate export statistics, country level bilateral export data is employed. Real exchange rate developments are modeled asymmetrically by the nonlinear ARDL method (NARDL). This method allows examining whether the response of exports differs with respect to real exchange rate depreciation and appreciation. Findings indicate that exports are significantly affected by real exchange rate developments for the countries to which almost half of Turkey’s total exports are made. Panel data estimations also confirm the long-run relationship between exports and real exchange rate. Income elasticity of exports is found to be greater than real exchange rate elasticity of exports in absolute terms. In addition, there is evidence that real exchange rate developments induce asymmetrical effects on exports. Findings show that these effects are stronger during the periods when Turkish lira appreciates.

Özet

Bu çalÕúma, Türkiye için altÕn hariç ihracatÕn belirleyicilerini talep yönlü bir model ile ele alarak ihracatÕn yurt dÕúÕ gelirdeki ve reel döviz kurundaki de÷iúimlere duyarlÕlÕ÷ÕnÕ sorgulamaktadÕr. Toplam veri kullanÕmÕndan kaynaklanan sapmayÕ azaltmak amacÕyla ülke düzeyinde veri setinden yararlanÕlmaktadÕr. Reel döviz kurundaki geliúmeler, do÷rusal olmayan ARDL yöntemi (NARDL) ile asimetrik olarak modellenmektedir. Söz konusu yöntem, ihracat miktarÕnÕn reel döviz kurunda gerçekleúen azalÕú ve artÕúlara verdi÷i tepkilerin farklÕlaúÕp farklÕlaúmadÕ÷Õ ele almaya olanak tanÕmaktadÕr. Bulgular, Türkiye’nin toplam ihracatÕnÕn yaklaúÕk yarÕsÕnÕ gerçekleútirdi÷i ülkeler için ihracatÕn reel kur de÷iúimlerinden anlamlÕ olarak etkilendi÷ine iúaret etmektedir. Panel veri tahminleri de ihracat ile reel döviz kuru arasÕndaki uzun dönem iliúkiyi teyit etmektedir. Ülke düzeyinde ihracatÕn gelir esnekliklerinin, ihracatÕn reel kur esnekliklerinden mutlak anlamda daha büyük olduklarÕ saptanmaktadÕr. ÇalÕúmada, reel kur de÷iúimlerinin ihracat üzerinde asimetrik etkileri oldu÷u sonucuna ulaúÕlmaktadÕr. Söz konusu etkilerin, Türk lirasÕndaki de÷er kazancÕ durumunda daha güçlü oldu÷u yönünde bulgular elde edilmektedir.

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Cite This Article

GÜL, S. (2022). The Effects of Real Exchange Rate Movements on Exports:An Asymmetric Approach for Turkey. Bankacılar, Cilt: 30 - Sayı: 108, 57–78. https://ajindex.com/articles/461740

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