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Journals / Scientific Journal of Mehmet Akif Ersoy University / 2025 / Volume: 8 Issue: 2

ARIMA and Machine Learning–Based Forecasting of Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Registrations in Türkiye

Mehmet Ümit Ak(ANTALYA AKEV ÜNİVERSİTESİ, MÜHENDİSLİK-MİMARLIK FAKÜLTESİ)0000-0002-7231-0265
Ramazan Öz(ANTALYA AKEV UNIVERSITY)0000-0002-4008-6000
Pages
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Publication Date
2025-12-26
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The monthly forecasts for 2026 reveal that electric vehicle (EV) registrations in Turkey will continue to show a strong and accelerating growth trend in the coming period, while the growth rate of hybrid vehicle (HV) registrations will slow down significantly, showing a more limited increase or a stagnant trend.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:The rapid proliferation of electric and hybrid vehicles has become one of the fundamental components of Turkey's sustainable transportation policies.
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Key Findings & Data:In this study, time series analyses of the number of electric (EV) and hybrid (HV) cars registered in Turkey monthly between 2020M01-2025M10 were obtained, and a forecasting model was developed for monthly periods in 2026.
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Conclusion & Impact:The monthly forecasts for 2026 reveal that electric vehicle (EV) registrations in Turkey will continue to show a strong and accelerating growth trend in the coming period, while the growth rate of hybrid vehicle (HV) registrations will slow down significantly, showing a more limited increase or a stagnant trend.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2026 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Electric Vehicle · Hybrid Vehicle · ARIMA

Abstract

The rapid proliferation of electric and hybrid vehicles has become one of the fundamental components of Turkey's sustainable transportation policies. This trend necessitates reliable future projections in terms of energy infrastructure planning, charging station placement, environmental impact reduction, and transformation within the automotive sector. In this study, time series analyses of the number of electric (EV) and hybrid (HV) cars registered in Turkey monthly between 2020M01-2025M10 were obtained, and a forecasting model was developed for monthly periods in 2026. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and machine learning algorithms such as Prophet, LSTM, and SVR were used as methods. The findings show that machine learning-based models produce lower prediction errors than ARIMA and that SVR and Prophet perform better. The monthly forecasts for 2026 reveal that electric vehicle (EV) registrations in Turkey will continue to show a strong and accelerating growth trend in the coming period, while the growth rate of hybrid vehicle (HV) registrations will slow down significantly, showing a more limited increase or a stagnant trend.

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Cite This Article

Ak, M. Ü., Öz, R. (2025). ARIMA and Machine Learning–Based Forecasting of Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Registrations in Türkiye. Scientific Journal of Mehmet Akif Ersoy University, Volume: 8 Issue: 2. https://doi.org/10.70030/sjmakeu.1838078

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