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The Impact of NEET Rate on Poverty: Dynamic Panel Data Analysis for the 2015–2023 Period in the Case of Türkiye

NEET Oranının Yoksulluk Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye Örneğinde 2015–2023 Dönemi Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi

Abdullah Selim Doğan(YALOVA ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0003-3844-3280
Pages
104–126
Publication Date
2026-07-16
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

It is recommended to prioritize long-term and holistic policies that focus on structural issues (education-employment mismatch, regional inequalities) pushing young people into NEET status, particularly targeting the risks faced by young women.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:Purpose: The current study examines the impact of the increase in the rate of young people not in education, employment, or training (NEET) on poverty in Turkey.
📊
Key Findings & Data:The originality of the study lies in providing an empirical contribution to the literature by analyzing the relationship between NEET and poverty using a dynamic econometric model that accounts for the persistent nature of poverty, utilizing regional data from the 2015–2023 period.
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Conclusion & Impact:It is recommended to prioritize long-term and holistic policies that focus on structural issues (education-employment mismatch, regional inequalities) pushing young people into NEET status, particularly targeting the risks faced by young women.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2015–2023 Verileri
⚙️Variables:NEET · Ne Eğitimde Ne İstihdamda Olan Gençler · Yoksulluk

Abstract

Purpose: The current study examines the impact of the increase in the rate of young people not in education, employment, or training (NEET) on poverty in Turkey. The originality of the study lies in providing an empirical contribution to the literature by analyzing the relationship between NEET and poverty using a dynamic econometric model that accounts for the persistent nature of poverty, utilizing regional data from the 2015–2023 period. Method: In the study, annual data covering the 2015-2023 period for Turkey’s 26 NUTS-2 regions were used. The data were compiled from TurkStat and Eurostat databases. To measure the dynamic interaction between variables and the inertia effect of poverty, the Arellano-Bond (1991) dynamic panel data estimation (Difference-GMM) technique was applied using Stata 16 software. The validity of the model was confirmed by Sargan over-identification tests and AR(1)/ AR(2) autocorrelation tests. Key Findings: Econometric model findings show that both the previous period’s poverty rate (coefficient: 0.08) and the previous period’s NEET rate (coefficient: 0.04) have a statistically significant and positive effect on current poverty. These findings prove that poverty exhibits strong persistence and that the impact of NEET status on poverty emerges with a lag. Recommendations for Research and Practice: The findings demonstrate that combating the NEET problem is an integral part of the fight against poverty. It is recommended to prioritize long-term and holistic policies that focus on structural issues (education-employment mismatch, regional inequalities) pushing young people into NEET status, particularly targeting the risks faced by young women.

Özet

Amaç: Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de ne eğitimde ne istihdamda ne de yetiştirmede olan (NEET) gençlerin oranındaki artışın yoksulluk üzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. Araştırmanın özgün değeri, NEET ve yoksulluk arasındaki ilişkiyi, yoksulluğun süregelen doğasını dikkate alan dinamik bir ekonometrik modelle ve 2015–2023 dönemi bölgesel verileriyle analiz ederek literatüre ampirik bir katkı sunmasıdır. Yöntem: Araştırmada, Türkiye’nin 26 İBBS-2 bölgesi için 2015-2023 dönemini kapsayan yıllık veriler kullanılmıştır. Veriler, TÜİK ve Eurostat veri bankalarından derlenmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki dinamik etkileşimi ve yoksulluğun atalet etkisini (inertia) ölçmek amacıyla, ekonometrik analizlerde Stata 16 yazılımı kullanılarak Arellano-Bond (1991) dinamik panel veri tahmini (Difference-GMM) tekniği uygulanmıştır. Modelin geçerliliği Sargan aşırı tanımlama testleri ve AR(1)/AR(2) otokorelasyon testleri ile teyit edilmiştir. Temel Sonuçlar: Ekonometrik model bulguları, hem bir önceki dönemin yoksulluk oranının (katsayı: 0.08) hem de bir önceki dönemin NEET oranının (katsayı: 0.04) mevcut dönem yoksulluğu üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu bulgular, yoksulluğun güçlü bir süreklilik sergilediğini ve NEET statüsünün yoksulluk üzerindeki etkisinin gecikmeli olarak ortaya çıktığını kanıtlamaktadır. Araştırma ve Uygulama için Öneriler: Bulgular, NEET sorunuyla mücadelenin yoksullukla mücadelenin ayrılmaz bir parçası olduğunu göstermektedir. Gençleri NEET statüsüne iten yapısal sorunlara (eğitim-istihdam uyumsuzluğu, bölgesel eşitsizlikler) odaklanan, özellikle genç kadınların risklerini hedef alan, uzun vadeli ve bütüncül politikalara öncelik verilmesi önerilmektedir.

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Cite This Article

Doğan, A. S. (2026). The Impact of NEET Rate on Poverty: Dynamic Panel Data Analysis for the 2015–2023 Period in the Case of Türkiye. Gençlik Araştırmaları Dergisi, Sayı: 2026, 104–126. https://doi.org/10.52528/genclikarastirmalari.1734058

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