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Journals / Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi / 2026 / Sayı: 73

Macroeconomic factors affecting banks’ profitability ratios: The case of Türkiye

Bankaların kârlılık oranlarını etkileyen makroekonomik faktörler: Türkiye örneği

Ayşegül Yılmaz(MERSİN ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0009-0001-9137-0327
Turgay Münyas(OKAN ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-8558-2032
Gülden Kadooğlu Aydın(HARRAN ÜNİVERSİTESİ, BİRECİK MESLEK YÜKSEKOKULU)0000-0003-4214-5673
Rüya Kaplan Yıldırım(ADANA ALPARSLAN TÜRKEŞ BİLİM VE TEKNOLOJİ ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0003-0455-568X
Pages
1–12
Publication Date
2026-04-30
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The findings obtained in terms of asset profitability (ROA) and equity profitability (ROE) revealed a positive relationship between the inflation rate and ROA and ROE, and a negative relationship between interest rates and exchange rates and ROA and ROE.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:In developing financial systems, the profitability of banks is of great importance for the efficiency of both the real sector and the financial sector.
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Key Findings & Data:As in other countries, the performance and profitability of the banking sector is one of the issues that must be given serious consideration for the development and continuity of economies in developing countries such as Turkey, as well as for their industrial quality and economic development.
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Conclusion & Impact:The findings obtained in terms of asset profitability (ROA) and equity profitability (ROE) revealed a positive relationship between the inflation rate and ROA and ROE, and a negative relationship between interest rates and exchange rates and ROA and ROE.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:Comprehensive Sample
⚙️Variables:Banka Kârlılığı · Makroekonomik Faktörler · Türk Bankacılık Sektörü

Abstract

In developing financial systems, the profitability of banks is of great importance for the efficiency of both the real sector and the financial sector. As in other countries, the performance and profitability of the banking sector is one of the issues that must be given serious consideration for the development and continuity of economies in developing countries such as Turkey, as well as for their industrial quality and economic development. In this context, the profitability of the relevant sector is considered one of the important financial performance indicators. Identifying the indicators that affect this profitability is of great importance for public institutions and organisations, bank managers and depositors. Identifying these indicators is important for eliminating potential risks and ensuring the continuity of companies, institutions and organisations. This research aims to analyse the macroeconomic factors affecting the return on assets and return on equity of banks operating in Turkey. To this end, the questions ‘How do interest rates, inflation rates and exchange rates affect the return on assets of banks operating in Turkey?’ and ‘How do interest rates, inflation rates and exchange rates affect the return on equity of banks operating in Turkey?’ are addressed. In this context, the ARDL-based non-linear bounds test approach (NARDL) method was applied. The findings obtained in terms of asset profitability (ROA) and equity profitability (ROE) revealed a positive relationship between the inflation rate and ROA and ROE, and a negative relationship between interest rates and exchange rates and ROA and ROE.

Özet

Gelişmekte olan finansal sistemlerde bankaların kârlılığı gerek reel sektörün gerekse de mali sektörün etkinliği için büyük önem taşımaktadır. Başka ülkelerde olduğu gibi Türkiye gibi gelişmekte olan ülke ekonomilerinin gelişmesi ve devamlılığı, endüstriyel kalitesi ve ekonomik kalkınması için bankacılık sektörünün performansı ve kârlılığı üzerinde önemle durulması gereken konulardan birisidir. Bu bağlamda ilgili sektöre ilişkin kârlılık durumu, önemli finansal performans göstergelerinden biri olarak kabul edilmektedir. Bu kârlılığı etkileyen göstergelerin belirlenmesi kamu kurum ve kuruluşları, banka yöneticileri ve mevduat sahipleri için büyük önem arz etmektedir. Bu göstergelerin tespit edilmesi, ortaya çıkabilecek risklerin ortadan kaldırılması ve firma, kurum ve kuruluşların devamlılıkları için önemlidir. Bu araştırma Türkiye’de faaliyet gösteren bankaların aktif kârlılığı ve öz kaynak kârlılığını etkileyen makroekonomik faktörleri analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, “Faiz oranı, enflasyon oranı ve döviz kurları Türkiye’de faaliyet gösteren bankaların aktif kârlılığını nasıl etkiler?” ve “Faiz oranı, enflasyon oranı ve döviz kurları Türkiye’de faaliyet gösteren bankaların öz kaynak kârlılığını nasıl etkiler?” soruları ele alınmıştır. Bu bağlamda, ARDL tabanlı doğrusal olmayan sınır testi yaklaşımı (NARDL) yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Aktif kârlılığı (ROA) ve öz kaynak kârlılığı (ROE) kapsamında elde edilen bulgularda, enflasyon oranı ile ROA ve ROE arasında pozitif yönlü, faiz oranları ve döviz kurları ile ROA ve ROE arasında da negatif yönlü bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir.

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Cite This Article

Yılmaz, A., Münyas, T., Aydın, G. K., Yıldırım, R. K. (2026). Macroeconomic factors affecting banks’ profitability ratios: The case of Türkiye. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Sayı: 73, 1–12. https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.1716159

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