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Dergiler / Eurasian Journal of Veterinary Sciences / 2020 / Cilt: 0 - Sayı: Covid-19 Special Issue

Analyzing COVID-19 outbreak for Turkey and Eight Country with Curve Estimation Models, Box-Jenkins (ARIMA), Brown Linear Exponential Smoothing Method, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and SEIR Models

Türkiye ve Sekiz Ülke (G8) için COVID-19 salgınının Eğri Tahmini Modelleri, Box-Jenkins (ARIMA), Brown Doğrusal Üstel Düzeltme Yöntemi, Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (ARDL) ve SEIR Modelleri ile analizi

Burak MAT
Melike TEKİNDAL
Mustafa Bahadır ÇEVRİMLİ
Mustafa Agah TEKİNDAL
Aynur YONAR
Harun YONAR
Zekeriya Safa İNANÇ
Hasan ALKAN
Sayfa
142–155
Yayın Tarihi
2022-10-18
DOI
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⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

It is seen that the observed and predicted daily cumulative newcases are consistent.Conclusion: As a result, it can be said that the models used in this study wellcharacterized outbreak of the COVID-19 in the eight major Western countriesand Turkey

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Amaç & Hipotez:.Aim: This study is conducted to inform communities and governments aboutthe spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in selected countries: Turkey, Germany,the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Russian, Canada, and Japan.Materials and Methods: For this purpose, the numbers of the COVID-19 epidemic after the 100th case up to 7/19/2020 for selected countries have beenestimated by using Curve Estimation Models, Box-Jenkins (ARIMA), Brown Linear Exponential Smoothing Method, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)and SEIR Models.Results: In the evaluations of the ARDL and SEIR models established, it is determined that France and Italy have high pandemic growth rates; while Canada has a low pandemic growth rate.
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Temel Bulgular & Veri:It has also observed that the turningpoint of the pandemic occurred on the 72nd day.
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Sonuç & Katkı:It is seen that the observed and predicted daily cumulative newcases are consistent.Conclusion: As a result, it can be said that the models used in this study wellcharacterized outbreak of the COVID-19 in the eight major Western countriesand Turkey
🔬Tür:Modelleme & Sayısal Simülasyon
📍Kapsam:2020 Verileri
⚙️Değişkenler:Alan Parametreleri

Özet

.Aim: This study is conducted to inform communities and governments aboutthe spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in selected countries: Turkey, Germany,the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Russian, Canada, and Japan.Materials and Methods: For this purpose, the numbers of the COVID-19 epidemic after the 100th case up to 7/19/2020 for selected countries have beenestimated by using Curve Estimation Models, Box-Jenkins (ARIMA), Brown Linear Exponential Smoothing Method, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)and SEIR Models.Results: In the evaluations of the ARDL and SEIR models established, it is determined that France and Italy have high pandemic growth rates; while Canada has a low pandemic growth rate. It has also observed that the turningpoint of the pandemic occurred on the 72nd day. If there is no change in theoutbreak and governments continue with the same strategies, it is predictedthat the epidemic will begin again in early October 2020 (from September 21to November 10) and will be effective for an average of 155 days (between 145and 168 days). It is seen that the observed and predicted daily cumulative newcases are consistent.Conclusion: As a result, it can be said that the models used in this study wellcharacterized outbreak of the COVID-19 in the eight major Western countriesand Turkey

Abstract

Amaç: Bu çalışma, COVID-19 salgınının Türkiye, Almanya, Birleşik Krallık, Fransa, İtalya, Rusya, Kanada ve Japonya gibi belirli ülkelerde yayılması konusunda toplulukları ve hükümetleri bilgilendirmek için yapılmıştır. Gereç ve Yöntem: Bu amaçla, seçilen ülkeler için 100. vakadan sonra 19.07.2020'ye kadar olan COVID-19 salgını sayıları Eğri Tahmin Modelleri, Box-Jenkins (ARIMA), Brown Doğrusal Üstel Düzeltme Yöntemi, Otoregresif Dağılımlı Lag (ARDL) ve SEIR Modelleri kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. Bulgular: Oluşturulan ARDL ve SEIR modellerinin değerlendirmelerinde, Fransa ve İtalya'nın pandemik büyüme oranlarının yüksek olduğu; Kanada düşük pandemik büyüme oranına sahipken. Ayrıca pandeminin dönüm noktasının 72. günde gerçekleştiğini gözlemledi. Salgında bir değişiklik olmazsa ve hükümetler aynı stratejilerle devam ederse, salgının 2020 Ekim ayı başlarında (21 Eylül - 10 Kasım arası) yeniden başlayacağı ve ortalama 155 gün (145-168 gün arası) etkili olacağı tahmin ediliyor. Öneri: Gözlemlenen ve tahmin edilen günlük kümülatif yeni vakaların tutarlı olduğu görülmektedir. Sonuç olarak, bu çalışmada kullanılan modellerin G8 ülkesinde ve Türkiye'de COVID-19 salgınını iyi karakterize ettiği söylenebilir

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Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

MAT, B., TEKİNDAL, M., ÇEVRİMLİ, M. B., TEKİNDAL, M. A., YONAR, A., YONAR, H., İNANÇ, Z. S., ALKAN, H. (2022). Analyzing COVID-19 outbreak for Turkey and Eight Country with Curve Estimation Models, Box-Jenkins (ARIMA), Brown Linear Exponential Smoothing Method, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and SEIR Models. Eurasian Journal of Veterinary Sciences, Cilt: 0 - Sayı: Covid-19 Special Issue, 142–155. https://ajindex.com/articles/509836

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