Dergiler / Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 15 Sayı: 2

Türkiye’de kirlilik sığınağı hipotezi mi, yoksa kirlilik hale hipotezi mi geçerlidir?: Genişletilmiş sınır testi (A-ARDL) yaklaşımı

Is the pollution haven hypothesis or the pollution halo hypothesis valid in Türkiye?: An augmented bounds test (A-ARDL) approach

Oğuzhan Demir(Tokat Gaziosmanpaşa Üniversitesi)0000-0001-6320-5562
Dilek Özdemir(ATATÜRK ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-8048-7730
Sevda Yapraklı(ATATÜRK ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-1902-899X
Sayfa
807–824
Yayın Tarihi
2025-06-27
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⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

Bulgular, DYY’nin kısa ve uzun dönemde CO₂ emisyonlarını artırdığını ve KSH’nin Türkiye için geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

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Amaç & Hipotez:Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların (DYY) çevre kirliliği üzerindeki etkisini Kirlilik Sığınağı Hipotezi (KSH) ve Kirlilik Hale Hipotezi (KHH) kapsamında analiz etmektedir. 1975-2022 dönemine ait karbon emisyonları, kişi başına enerji tüketimi, DYY girişleri, ticari açıklık, gayrisafi sabit sermaye oluşumu ve ekonomik büyüme değişkenleri kullanılarak Genişletilmiş Sınır Testi (A-ARDL) yöntemi uygulanmıştır.
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Temel Bulgular & Veri:Ayrıca, enerji verimliliğini artıran yapısal dönüşüm politikalarının uygulanması, karbon emisyonlarını azaltma noktasında kritik bir rol oynayacaktır.
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Sonuç & Katkı:Bulgular, DYY’nin kısa ve uzun dönemde CO₂ emisyonlarını artırdığını ve KSH’nin Türkiye için geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir.
🔬Tür:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Kapsam:2022 Verileri
⚙️Değişkenler:Kirlilik Sığınağı Hipotezi · Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar · Kirlilik Hale Hipotezi

Özet

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların (DYY) çevre kirliliği üzerindeki etkisini Kirlilik Sığınağı Hipotezi (KSH) ve Kirlilik Hale Hipotezi (KHH) kapsamında analiz etmektedir. 1975-2022 dönemine ait karbon emisyonları, kişi başına enerji tüketimi, DYY girişleri, ticari açıklık, gayrisafi sabit sermaye oluşumu ve ekonomik büyüme değişkenleri kullanılarak Genişletilmiş Sınır Testi (A-ARDL) yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Bulgular, DYY’nin kısa ve uzun dönemde CO₂ emisyonlarını artırdığını ve KSH’nin Türkiye için geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Özellikle enerji yoğun ve karbon salınımı yüksek sektörlere yönelen DYY’ler, çevresel sürdürülebilirliği tehdit etmektedir. Bu sonuçlar, DYY politikalarının çevre dostu teknolojilere ve yenilenebilir enerji yatırımlarına yönlendirilmesi gerektiğini vurgulamaktadır. Ayrıca, enerji verimliliğini artıran yapısal dönüşüm politikalarının uygulanması, karbon emisyonlarını azaltma noktasında kritik bir rol oynayacaktır. Gelecekte yapılacak çalışmalarda sektörel ve bölgesel düzeyde analizlerin derinleştirilmesi, DYY’lerin çevresel etkilerini daha kapsamlı bir şekilde ortaya koyacaktır.

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on environmental pollution in Türkiye, with reference to the Pollution Haven Hypothesis (PHH) and the Pollution Halo Effect (PHE). Employing the Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (A-ARDL) approach, the analysis covers the period 1975–2022 using a set of variables including carbon emissions, per capita energy consumption, FDI inflows, trade openness, gross fixed capital formation, and economic growth. Empirical findings indicate that FDI contributes to an increase in CO₂ emissions in both the short and long term, thereby providing strong evidence in support of the PHH in the case of Türkiye. In particular, FDI inflows targeting energy-intensive and carbon-intensive sectors appear to undermine environmental sustainability. These results underscore the necessity of redirecting FDI toward environmentally sustainable technologies and renewable energy investments. Moreover, the implementation of structural transformation policies aimed at improving energy efficiency is expected to play a pivotal role in mitigating carbon emissions. Future research would benefit from more disaggregated, sector-specific and regionally focused analyses to capture the heterogeneous environmental effects of FDI more comprehensively.

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Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Demir, O., Özdemir, D., Yapraklı, S. (2025). Türkiye’de kirlilik sığınağı hipotezi mi, yoksa kirlilik hale hipotezi mi geçerlidir?: Genişletilmiş sınır testi (A-ARDL) yaklaşımı. Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 2, 807–824. https://doi.org/10.30783/nevsosbilen.1517522

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