KaydedilenlerDerginizi ekleyin

Dergiler / Bilig / 2026 / Sayı: 118

Ekonomik ve Mali İlişkilerin Diplomatik Etkisi: Türkistan Devletleri ile Çin Üzerine Bir Analiz

Diplomatic Impact of Economic and Financial Relations: An Analysis of the Turkestan States and China

Fadime Ayca Ceylan
Ali Fuat Uruş
Dergi
Bilig
Sayfa
177–212
Yayın Tarihi
2026-07-31
🏛️Bu makalenin bibliyografik verileri ve tam metin bağlantısı DergiPark üzerinden sağlanmıştır.
DergiPark Kaydı ↗
✨

Yapay Zeka Hızlı Bakış & Çıkarımlar

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

Çalışma, ekonomik teşviklerin siyasi uyumu artırma potansiyelinin ancak iç siyasal yapı, kurumsal kapasite ve dış politika yönelimleriyle birleştiğinde etkili olabileceğini göstermektedir.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

🎯
Amaç & Hipotez:Bu çalışma, Çin’in Türkistan Devletleri – Kazakistan, Kırgızistan, Tacikistan, Türkmenistan ve Özbekistan – ile geliştirdiği iktisadi ve mali ilişkilerin, bu ülkelerin Birleşmiş Milletler Genel Kurulu’nda (BMGK) Çin ile olan oy uyumu üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmektedir. 2000–2021 dönemine ilişkin veriler ithalat, ihracat, dış borç, proje sayısı, taahhüt miktarı ve ekonomik özgürlük endeksi gibi değişkenleri kapsamaktadır.
📊
Temel Bulgular & Veri:Bağımlı değişken olarak oy uyumu oranı kullanılmıştır.
💡
Sonuç & Katkı:Çalışma, ekonomik teşviklerin siyasi uyumu artırma potansiyelinin ancak iç siyasal yapı, kurumsal kapasite ve dış politika yönelimleriyle birleştiğinde etkili olabileceğini göstermektedir.
🔬Tür:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Kapsam:2000–2021 Verileri
⚙️Değişkenler:Oy Uyumu · ekonomi · Çin

Özet

Bu çalışma, Çin’in Türkistan Devletleri – Kazakistan, Kırgızistan, Tacikistan, Türkmenistan ve Özbekistan – ile geliştirdiği iktisadi ve mali ilişkilerin, bu ülkelerin Birleşmiş Milletler Genel Kurulu’nda (BMGK) Çin ile olan oy uyumu üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmektedir. 2000–2021 dönemine ilişkin veriler ithalat, ihracat, dış borç, proje sayısı, taahhüt miktarı ve ekonomik özgürlük endeksi gibi değişkenleri kapsamaktadır. Bağımlı değişken olarak oy uyumu oranı kullanılmıştır. Verilerin parametrik varsayımları sağlamaması ve panel sonuçlarının anlamlı olmaması nedeniyle Theil-Sen regresyon yöntemi tercih edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, ekonomik ve mali ilişkilerin siyasi uyum üzerinde ülkelere göre değişen etkiler yarattığını ortaya koymaktadır. Kırgızistan ve Özbekistan’da ekonomik değişkenler anlamlı etki gösterirken; Kazakistan, Tacikistan ve Türkmenistan örneklerinde açıklayıcılık oldukça sınırlıdır. Çalışma, ekonomik teşviklerin siyasi uyumu artırma potansiyelinin ancak iç siyasal yapı, kurumsal kapasite ve dış politika yönelimleriyle birleştiğinde etkili olabileceğini göstermektedir.

Abstract

This study analyses the impact of China’s economic and financial relations with the Turkestan States – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – on voting alignment of these five states with China in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). Data from the 2000–2021 period covers variables such as imports, exports, external debt, number of projects, commitment amounts and economic freedom index. The voting alignment ratio was used as the dependent variable. Due to the failure to meet parametric assumptions and the lack of significant results from panel models, the Theil-Sen regression method was preferred. The results reveal that economic and financial relations have varying effects on political alignment depending on the country. Economic variables show a significant effect in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, while explanatory power is quite limited in the cases of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. The study demonstrates that the potential of economic incentives to increase political alignment can only be effective when combined with internal political structure, institutional capacity and foreign policy orientations.

🔖

Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Ceylan, F. A., Uruş, A. F. (2026). Ekonomik ve Mali İlişkilerin Diplomatik Etkisi: Türkistan Devletleri ile Çin Üzerine Bir Analiz. Bilig, Sayı: 118, 177–212. https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.8957

📄 Tam Metin PDF Okuyucu

↗Yeni Sekme

Kaynakça (48)

  1. Alesina, Alberto, and David Dollar. “Who gives foreign aid to whom and why?” Journal of Economic Growth, vol. 5, no. 1, 2000, pp. 33–63.
  2. Bailey, Michael A., et al. “Estimating Dynamic State Preferences from United Nations Voting Data.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 61, no. 2, 2017, pp. 430-456.
  3. Bailey, Michael A., and Erik Voeten. “A Two-dimensional Analysis of Seventy Years of United Nations Voting.” Public Choice, vol. 176, 2018, pp. 33-55.
  4. Bräutigam, Deborah, and Kevin P. Gallagher. “Bartering Globalization: China’s Commodity‐backed Finance in Africa and Latin America.” Global Policy, vol. 5, no. 3, 2014, pp. 346-352.
  5. Brazys, Samuel, and Alexander Dukalskis. “Canary in the Coal Mine? China, the UNGA and the Changing World Order.” Review of International Studies, vol. 43, no. 4, 2017, pp. 742-764.
  6. Broich, Tobias. “Do Authoritarian Regimes Receive more Chinese Development Finance Than Democratic Ones? Empirical Evidence for Africa.” China Economic Review, vol. 46, 2017, pp. 180-207.
  7. Carter, David B., and Randall W. Stone. “Democracy and Multilateralism: The Case of Vote Buying in the UN General Assembly.” International Organization, vol. 69, no. 1, 2015, pp. 1-33.
  8. Cohen, Jacob. “A Coefficient of Agreement for Nominal Scales.” Educational and Psychological Measurement, vol. 2, no.1, 1960, pp. 37-46.
  9. Çalık Topuz, Zuhal. “Analysis of Central Asian States’ Political Affinity to Global Powers: Case of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.” bilig, no. 107, 2023, pp. 01-32,
  10. Dang, Xin, et al. “Theil-sen Estimators in a Multiple Linear Regression Model.” Olemiss Edu, 2008, pp. 1-30.
  11. Davis, Christina L., and Meredith Wilf. “Joining the Club: Accession to the GATT/WTO.” The Journal of Politics, vol. 79, no. 3, 2017, pp. 964-978.
  12. Davydov, Alexey. “Vote For Aid? How Economic Interaction With The United States Affects Countries’voting Patterns At The Un General Assembly.” Pathways to Peace and Security, vol. 2, no. 65, 2023, pp. 1-25.
  13. Dreher, Axel, and Andreas Fuchs. “Rogue Aid? An Empirical Analysis of China’s Aid Allocation.” Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d’économique, vol. 48, no. 3, 2015, pp. 988–1023.
  14. Dreher, Axel, et al. Banking on Beijing: The Aims and Impacts of China’s Overseas Development Program. Cambridge University Press, 2022.
  15. Dreher, Axel, et al. “Are ‘New’donors Different? Comparing the Allocation of Bilateral Aid between nonDAC and DAC Donor Countries.” World Development, vol. 39, no. 11, 2011, pp. 1950-1968.
  16. Flores-Macías, Gustavo A., and Sarah E. Kreps. “The Foreign Policy Consequences of Trade: China’s Commercial Relations with Africa and Latin America, 1992–2006.” The Journal of Politics, vol. 75, no. 2, 2013, pp. 357-371.
  17. Foot, Rosemary. ‘Doing Some Things’ in the Xi Jinping Era: The United Nations as China’s Venue of Choice. International Affairs, vol. 90, no. 5, 2014, pp. 1085-1100.
  18. Fuchs, Andreas, and Marina Rudyak. “23. The Motives of China’s Foreign Aid.” Handbook on the International Political Economy of China, ed. K. Zeng,Edward Elgar, 2019, pp. 392–410.
  19. Girod, Desha M., and Jennifer L Tobin,. “Take the Money and Run: The Determinants of Compliance with Aid Agreements.” International Organization, vol. 70, no. 1, 2016, pp. 209-239.
  20. Goodman, Seth, et al. “AidData’s Geospatial Global Chinese Development Finance Dataset.” Scientific Data, vol. 11, no. 1, 2024.
  21. Hall, Joshua C., and Robert A. Lawson. “Economic Freedom of the World: An Accounting of the Literature.” Contemporary Economic Policy, vol. 32, no. 1, 2014, pp. 1-19.
  22. Hale, Henry E. Patronal Politics: Eurasian Regime Dynamics in Comparative Perspective. Cambridge University Press, 2014.
  23. IMF Data. “International Trade in Goods by Partner Country.” https://data.imf.org/en/Dashboards/IMTS%20Dashboard.
  24. Kastner, Scott L. “Buying Influence? Assessing the Political Effects of China’s International Trade.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 60, no. 6, 2016, pp. 980-1007.
  25. Krippendorff, Klaus, Content Analysis: An Introduction to Its Methodology (3rd Edition). SAGE Publications, 2018.
  26. Laruelle, Marlène, ed. China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Its Impact in Central Asia. George Washington University, Central Asia Program, 2018.
  27. Lemon, Edward, and Ruslan Norov, “How China is Adapting to Tajikistan’s Demand for Security Cooperation.” Carnegie, 2025. https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2025/03/how-china-is-adapting- to-tajikistans-demand-for-securitycooperation?lang=enandutm.
  28. Morgenthau, Hans Joachim, et al. Politics Among Nations: The Struggle For Power and Peace. Vol. 688, Knopf, 1985.
  29. Muratalieva, Nargiza. “Chinese Lending Adapts to Central Asia’s Realities.” Carnegie, 2024, https://carnegieendowment.org/videos/2024/09/chineselending-adapts-to-central-asias-realities? lang=en.
  30. Neuendorf, Kimberly A. The Content Analysis Guidebook (2nd Edition). Sage, 2017.
  31. Pang, Xun, and Wang Shuai. “The International Political Significance of Chinese and US Foreign Aid: As Seen in United Nations General Assembly Voting.” Social Sciences in China, vol. 39, no. 1, 2018, pp. 5-33.
  32. Poole, Keith T., and Howard Rosenthal. “D-nominate After 10 Years: A Comparative Update to Congress: A Political-economic History of Roll-call Voting.” Legislative Studies Quarterly, 2001, pp. 5-29.
  33. Raess, Damian, et al. “Hidden Strings Attached? Chinese (Commercially Oriented) Foreign Aid and International Political Alignment.” Foreign Policy Analysis, vol. 18, no. 3, 2022, orac010.
  34. Reed, William, et al. “War, Power and Bargaining.” The Journal of Politics, vol. 70, no. 4, 2008, pp. 1203-1216.
  35. Rudyak, Maximillian. “The Politics of China’s Foreign Aid: Regime Type, Governance and Strategic Interests.” Routledge handbook on global China. Eds. Mayer, M., E. Kavalski, M. Rudyak, and X. Zhang, Taylor and Francis Group, 2024.
  36. Sen, Pranab Kumar. “Estimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall’s Tau.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 63, no. 324, 1968, pp. 1379-1389.
  37. Snyder, Glenn H. Alliance politics. Cornell University Press, 2007.
  38. Strüver, Georg. “‘Bereft of Friends’? China’s Rise and Search for Political Partners in South America.” Chinese Journal of International Politics, vol. 7, no. 1, 2014, pp. 117-151.
  39. Strüver, Georg. “What Friends are Made of: Bilateral Linkages and Domestic Drivers of Foreign Policy Alignment with China.” Foreign Policy Analysis, vol. 12, no. 2, 2016, pp. 170–91.
  40. Thacker, Strom C. “The High Politics of IMF Lending.” World Politics, vol. 52, no. 1, 1999, pp. 38-75.
  41. Theil, Henri. “A Rank-invariant Method of Linear and Polynomial Regression Analysis.” Indagationes Mathematicae, vol. 12, no. 85, 1950, pp. 386–392.
  42. Tsereteli, Mamuka. “The Economic Modernization of Uzbekistan, The Institute for Security and Development Policy.” 2018, https://www.isdp.eu/publication/economic-modernization-uzbekistan/.
  43. Voeten, Erik. “Clashes in the Assembly.” International Organization, vol. 54, no. 2, 2000, pp. 185-215.
  44. Ward, Hugh, and Han Dorussen. “Standing Alongside Your Friends: Network Centrality and Providing Troops to UN Peacekeeping Operations.” Journal of Peace Research, vol. 53, no. 3, 2016, pp. 392-408.
  45. World Bank. International Dept Statistics and AidData’s Global Chinese Development Finance Dataset, Version 3.0, https://databank.worldbank.org/PS-debt-to-China-2021/id/6af94696.
  46. Wu, Wen-Chin, et al. “China’s Economic Weight on the Scale of Sino-US Confrontation—Evidence from the United Nations General Assembly Voting Data.” Political Economy of International Organizations Conference, 2016, pp. 1-17.
  47. Zeng, Ka. “Introduction to the Handbook on the International Political Economy of China.” Handbook on the International Political Economy of China, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2019, pp. 1-18.
  48. Zhang, ZhongXiang. Energy price reform in China. Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy, Working Paper, 018.2018, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), 2018.