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Journals / Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi / 2014 / Cilt: 36 - Sayı: 2

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TÜRKİYE’DE FIRSATÇI VE PARTİZAN POLİTİK KONJONKTÜREL DALGALANMALAR: 1950-2010

Tülin ALTUN
Pages
47–69
Publication Date
2015-03-16
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The emprical results show that opportunistic and partisan political business cycles are valid in Turkey.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:The Theory of Political Business Cycles (PBC) suggests that policy makers taking part in political decision-making process cause cycles on economic variables.
📊
Key Findings & Data:The autoregressive integrated moving average method is used to determine whether there is a political deviation in the course of public spending between 1950 and 2010.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:The emprical results show that opportunistic and partisan political business cycles are valid in Turkey.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2010 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Fırsatçı Politik Konjonktürel Dalgalanmalar · Partizan Politik Konjonktürel Dalgalanmalar · Kamu Harcamaları

Abstract

The Theory of Political Business Cycles (PBC) suggests that policy makers taking part in political decision-making process cause cycles on economic variables. This paper analyzes PBC according to opportunistic and partisan models in Turkey. The autoregressive integrated moving average method is used to determine whether there is a political deviation in the course of public spending between 1950 and 2010. The emprical results show that opportunistic and partisan political business cycles are valid in Turkey. However the evidence related to partisan model is not clear

Özet

Politik Konjonktürel Dalgalanmalar (PKD) Teorisi, siyasal karar alma sürecinde yer alan politika yapıcıların ekonomik değişkenler üzerinde dalgalanmalara yol açtığını iddia etmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de fırsatçı ve partizan modellere göre PKD analiz edilmiştir. 1950-2010 dönemindeki kamu harcamalarının seyrinde politik amaçlı bir sapmanın olup olmadığı otoregresif hareketli ortalamalar yöntemi ile test edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre Türkiye’de fırsatçı ve partizan politik konjonktürel dalgalanmalar geçerlidir. Bununla birlikte partizan modele ilişkin kanıtlar net değildir.

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Cite This Article

ALTUN, T. (2015). -. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt: 36 - Sayı: 2, 47–69. https://ajindex.com/articles/6476

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