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Journals / Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi / 2012 / Cilt: 13 - Sayı: 2

The effect of the customs union agreement on Turkey s foreign trade: Panel gravity model approach

Gümrük Birliği'nin Türkiye'nin dış ticareti üzerine etkisi: Panel çekim modeli uygulaması

YILGÖR Metehan
Oktay ÖKSÜZLER
Ayça AYSUN
Pages
15–26
Publication Date
2022-10-18
DOI
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The results show that while the CU has had a notable impact on Turkish imports, its impact on Turkish exports is insignificant.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This study investigates the impacts of the 1996 Customs Union (CU) on the Turkish trade flows to EU15 by employing a Panel Gravity Model for the period 1980-2009 using yearly data.
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Key Findings & Data:The results show that while the CU has had a notable impact on Turkish imports, its impact on Turkish exports is insignificant.
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Conclusion & Impact:The results shows that the export model showed a structural change for both parties, whereas the import model only showed an income effect for Turkey s partner countries.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2009 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

This study investigates the impacts of the 1996 Customs Union (CU) on the Turkish trade flows to EU15 by employing a Panel Gravity Model for the period 1980-2009 using yearly data. Trade models are estimated by using income, population, the distance between countries and the CU Dummy as explanatory variables. The results show that while the CU has had a notable impact on Turkish imports, its impact on Turkish exports is insignificant. Furthermore, the study also examines the hypothesis that the CU has caused a structural change in the impacts of both Turkey s and the partner countries incomes on import and export. The results shows that the export model showed a structural change for both parties, whereas the import model only showed an income effect for Turkey s partner countries.

Özet

Bu çalışmada Türkiye ve Avrupa Birliği arasında kurulan 1996 tarihli Gümrük Birliğinin Türkiyenin AB-15 ile yaptığı dış ticarete etkisi Panel Çekim Modeli kullanılarak 1980-2009 dönemine ait yıllık verilerle tahmin edilmiştir. İthalat ve İhracat modellerinde nüfus, ülkeler arası uzaklık, milli gelir ve Gümrük Birliği kuklası açıklayıcı değişkenler olarak kullanılmıştır. Tahmin sonuçları göstermiştir ki Gümrük Birliği Türkiyenin ithalatında önemli bir etki yaparken bu etki Türkiyenin ihracatında önemsiz çıkmıştır. Buna ek olarak çalışmada hem Türkiyenin hem ortak ülkelerin milli gelirinin ihracat ve ithalata etkisinde Gümrük Birliğinden dolayı yapısal bir değişiklik olup olmadığı araştırılmış ve ihracat modelinde her iki etkininde yapısal olarak etkilendiği ithalat modelinde ise bu etkinin sadece ortak ülke gelirinde ortaya çıktığı sonucuna varılmıştır.

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Cite This Article

Metehan, Y., ÖKSÜZLER, O., AYSUN, A. (2022). The effect of the customs union agreement on Turkey s foreign trade: Panel gravity model approach. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt: 13 - Sayı: 2, 15–26. https://ajindex.com/articles/506073

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