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Journals / Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi / 2021 / Cilt: 0 - Sayı: 67

THE EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC, FINANCIAL AND POLITICAL RISKS ON CDSPREMIUM OF TURKEY

İKTİSADİ, FİNANSAL VE POLİTİK RİSKLERİN TÜRKİYE CDS PRİMİNE ETKİLERİ

Vasıf ABİOĞLU
Munise Ilıkkan ÖZGÜR
Esra SOYU
Pages
238–251
Publication Date
2022-10-11
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The empirical results imply that economic reforms appear to be more efficient than the financial recovery measures in reducing CDS premium of Turkey.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of economic, financial and political risks on CDS premium of Turkey.
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Key Findings & Data:For this purpose, we examine asymmetric effects of economic, financial and political risk variables on Turkey’s CDS by employing nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model for the period 2000:10-2020:06.
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Conclusion & Impact:The empirical results imply that economic reforms appear to be more efficient than the financial recovery measures in reducing CDS premium of Turkey.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2000 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of economic, financial and political risks on CDS premium of Turkey. For this purpose, we examine asymmetric effects of economic, financial and political risk variables on Turkey’s CDS by employing nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model for the period 2000:10-2020:06. Our findings are two-fold. First, we find that both economic and financial risks have asymmetric effects on CDS premium, while political risks have symmetric effect on CDS. Second, we find that increases in financial risks raise CDS premium more than that of economic risks, while decreases in economic risks reduce CDS premium more than that of financial risks. The empirical results imply that economic reforms appear to be more efficient than the financial recovery measures in reducing CDS premium of Turkey.

Özet

Bu çalışmanın amacı ekonomik, finansal ve politik risklerin Türkiye CDS primine etkilerini araştırmaktır. Bu amaçla,NARDL modeli kullanılarak 2000:10-2020:06 döneminde ekonomik, finansal ve politik risklerin Türkiye CDSprimine asimetrik etkileri incelenmektedir. Analizden iki önemli sonuç çıkmaktadır. İlk olarak, elde edilen bulgularagöre, ekonomik ve finansal risklerin CDS primi üzerinde asimetrik etkileri bulunurken, politik risklerin CDS primiüzerinde simetrik etkisi bulunmuştur. İkinci olarak, finansal risklerdeki artışların CDS primini yükseltmesi ekonomikrisklerdeki artışların CDS primini yükseltmesinden daha fazla iken, ekonomik risklerdeki azalışların CDS priminidüşürmesi finansal risklerdeki azalışların CDS primini düşürmesinden daha fazla olmaktadır. Ampirik analizsonuçlarına göre, ekonomik reformlar CDS primini düşürmede finansal reformlardan daha etkili olmaktadır.

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Cite This Article

ABİOĞLU, V., ÖZGÜR, M. I., SOYU, E. (2022). THE EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC, FINANCIAL AND POLITICAL RISKS ON CDSPREMIUM OF TURKEY. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt: 0 - Sayı: 67, 238–251. https://ajindex.com/articles/492428

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