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Journals / Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi / 2011 / Cilt: 48 - Sayı: 557

Political business cycles: theory and Turkey

Politik konjonktür dalgalanmaları: kuram ve Türkiye örneği

Osman Cenk KANCA
Pages
35–50
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

According to the analysis done via political means it is found that public expenditures have increased during the election time.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:Political Business Cycles Theory is defined as making manupulations on macro economic variables during the election time when government's aim is to ensure to be reselected by affecting economy by means of finance and money policies in order to gain economic and political advantages.
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Key Findings & Data:In this study, whether such manupulations exist in Turkey is analysed as the periods 1987-2007.
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Conclusion & Impact:According to the analysis done via political means it is found that public expenditures have increased during the election time.
🔬Design:Research Article
📍Scope:2007 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

Political Business Cycles Theory is defined as making manupulations on macro economic variables during the election time when government's aim is to ensure to be reselected by affecting economy by means of finance and money policies in order to gain economic and political advantages. In this study, whether such manupulations exist in Turkey is analysed as the periods 1987-2007. This analysis is done according to political outputs (GDP, unemployment and inflation) and political means (public expenditures). Then, Political Business Cycles is a matter of question between the years 1987 and 2007 in Turkey. According to analysis done through the political outputs, it is clear that GDP is affected negatively from the elections. In the study it is found that the inflation has the tendency of increasing while unemployment has that of decreasing. According to the analysis done via political means it is found that public expenditures have increased during the election time.

Özet

Politik konjonktürel dalgalanmalar teorisi, iktidarın seçim zamanında yeniden seçilebilmeyi kesinleştirebilmek amacıyla ekonomik ve politik avantajlar sağlamak için ekonomiyi maliye ve para politikası araçlarıyla etkileyerek makro ekonomik değişkenler üzerinde manipülasyonlar yapması olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de bu tür manipülasyonların olup olmadığı 1987-2007 dönemleri itibariyle analiz edilmiştir. Bu analiz, politika çıktıları (GSYİH, işsizlik ve enflasyon) vö politika araçlarına (kamu harcamaları) göre yapılmıştır. Buna göre 1987-2007 yılları arasında Türkiye'de politik konjonktürel dalgalanmalar söz konusudur. Politika çıktılarına göre yapılan analizde GSYİH'ın seçimlerden olumsuz etkilendiği görülmüştür. Çalışmada, seçim dönemlerinde enflasyonun artma işsizliğin ise azalma eğilimine girdiği saptanmıştır. Politika araçlarına göre yapılan analizde ise, kamu harcamalarının seçim dönemlerinde arttığı tespit edilmiştir.

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Cite This Article

KANCA, O. C. (2011). Political business cycles: theory and Turkey. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi, Cilt: 48 - Sayı: 557, 35–50. https://ajindex.com/articles/224036

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