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Journals / Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi / 2012 / Cilt: 49 - Sayı: 570

A causality analysis of relationship among agricultural export, non-agricultural export and economic growth for Turkey

Türkiye'de tarımsal ihracat, tarım dışı ihracat ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin nedensellik analizi

ALİ RIZA SANDALCILAR
Pages
65–76
DOI
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

This situation shows that the non-agricultural export is main determinant of economic growth in the total export.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:The main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between exports and economic growth in Turkey; to test the validity of export-led growth hypothesis for Turkey.
📊
Key Findings & Data:Quarterly data including between 1987 and 2007 was analyzed by using co-integration, error correction model (VECM) and the Toda-Yamamoto (MWald) methodologies.
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Conclusion & Impact:This situation shows that the non-agricultural export is main determinant of economic growth in the total export.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2007 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between exports and economic growth in Turkey; to test the validity of export-led growth hypothesis for Turkey. In this context, the analysis of causality relationship between total exports, agricultural exports, non-agricultural exports and economic growth was performed. Quarterly data including between 1987 and 2007 was analyzed by using co-integration, error correction model (VECM) and the Toda-Yamamoto (MWald) methodologies. The results of analyses show that the export-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey, and there is a strong causality running from export growth to economic growth both in the short run and the long run. However, the contribution of agricultural exports at the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis could not be estimated. This situation shows that the non-agricultural export is main determinant of economic growth in the total export.

Özet

Çalışmanın temel amacı Türkiye'de ihracat ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki iliş Kiyi incelemek; ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezinin Türkiye için geçerliliğini testetmektir. Bu kapsamda toplam ihracat, tarımsal ihracat, tarım dışı ihracat ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin nedensellik analizi yapıldı. 1987-2007 dönemi dönemlik verileri koentegrasyon, hata düzeltme modeli (VECM) ve Toda-Yamamoto modeli (MWald) kullanılarak analiz edildi. Analiz sonuçları, Türkiye'de ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu; ihracattan ekonomik büyümeye doğru kısa ve uzun dönemde güçlü tek yönlü nedenselliğin varlığını göstermektedir. Ancak ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezinin geçerliliğinde tarımsal ihracatın katkısı tahmin edilememiştir. Bu durum toplam ihracat içerisinde büyümenin temel belirleyicisinin tarım dışı ihracat olduğu sonucunu göstermektedir.

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Cite This Article

SANDALCILAR, A. R. (2012). A causality analysis of relationship among agricultural export, non-agricultural export and economic growth for Turkey. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi, Cilt: 49 - Sayı: 570, 65–76. https://ajindex.com/articles/223998

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