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Journals / Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi / 2026 / Sayı: 80

The Impact of Economic Growth, Unemployment and Inflation on Informal Employment in Turkey: an ARDL Bounds Test Approach

Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme, İşsizlik ve Enflasyonun Kayıt Dışı İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Rümeysa Çelik(İstanbul Üniversitesi, İİBF Çalışma Ekonomisi ve Endüstri İlişkileri Bölümü, İstanbul, Türkiye)0000-0002-0156-0603
Abdurrahman Keskin(İstanbul Üniversitesi, İİBF Çalışma Ekonomisi ve Endüstri İlişkileri Bölümü, İstanbul, Türkiye)0000-0003-1547-0358
Abdulkadir Keskin(İstanbul Medeniyet Üniversitesi, SBF İşletme Bölümü, İstanbul, Türkiye)0000-0002-4795-1028
Pages
451–474
Publication Date
2021-07-09
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

According to the empirical results, it is expected that a 1unit increase in economic growth and inflation will create a decrease of 0.233 and 0.039, respectively. 1 unit of increase in unemployment is expected to create an increase of 0.991 on informal employment.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:The globalization of the economy has caused the use of informal labor in many sectors and countries.
📊
Key Findings & Data:In this study, quarterly data collected from CBRT and TurKStat for the years 2004-2020 has been utilized.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:According to the empirical results, it is expected that a 1unit increase in economic growth and inflation will create a decrease of 0.233 and 0.039, respectively. 1 unit of increase in unemployment is expected to create an increase of 0.991 on informal employment.
🔬Design:Research Article
📍Scope:2004-2020 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Kayıt dışı istihdam · Ekonomik büyüme · İşsizlik

Abstract

The globalization of the economy has caused the use of informal labor in many sectors and countries. Policies and measures to solve this problem have been attempted, but informal employment has become a difficult problem to solve, both worldwide and in Turkey. Changes in macroeconomic factors impact informal employment, in addition to policies toward informal employment. The aim of this study is to reveal the relationship between economic growth, unemployment and inflation with informal employment. For this purpose, the long-term and short-term relationships of economic growth, unemployment, and inflation indicators on informal employment have been analyzed. In this study, quarterly data collected from CBRT and TurKStat for the years 2004-2020 has been utilized. The long and short term effects of the factors determined on informal employment were analyzed using the ARDL bounds test. All of the long term coefficients are statistically significant. There is a long-term relationship between economic growth, unemployment, inflation and informal employment. CointEq (-1) 45% of the imbalances that occur in the short term disappear. According to the empirical results, it is expected that a 1unit increase in economic growth and inflation will create a decrease of 0.233 and 0.039, respectively. 1 unit of increase in unemployment is expected to create an increase of 0.991 on informal employment.

Özet

Ekonominin küreselleşmesi, birçok sektörde ve ülkede işgücünün kayıt dışı olmasına sebep olmuştur. Bu problemin çözülmesine yönelik politikalar ile önlemler alınmaya çalışılsa da dünya genelinde olduğu gibi Türkiye’de de kayıt dışı istihdam, çözülmesi zor bir problem haline gelmiştir. Kayıt dışı istihdama karşı uygulanan politikaların yanı sıra makroekonomik faktörlerdeki değişimler, kayıt dışı istihdamı etkilemektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı da, makroekonomik faktörler içerisinde yer alan ekonomik büyüme, işsizlik ve enflasyonun kayıt dışı istihdam ile ilişkisini ortaya koymaktır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda ekonomik büyüme, işsizlik ve enflasyon göstergelerinin, kayıt dışı istihdam üzerindeki uzun dönemli ve kısa dönemli ilişkisi incelenmiştir. Yapılan çalışmada, TCMB ve TÜİK’ten elde edilen 2004-2020 yıllarına ait çeyreklik veriler kullanılmıştır. Kayıt dışı istihdam üzerinde belirlenen faktörlerin uzun ve kısa dönem etkileri ARDL sınır testi kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Uzun dönem katsayılarının tamamı istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olup, ekonomik büyüme, işsizlik ve enflasyon ile kayıtışı istihdam arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki görülmektedir. Kısa dönemde ise meydana gelen dengesizliklerin CointEq(-1) %45’i ortadan kalkmaktadır. Ampirik sonuçlara göre, ekonomik büyüme ve enflasyonda yaşanacak 1 birimlik artışın sırasıyla 0,233’lük ve 0,039’luk oranda bir azalış yaratması beklenmektedir. İşsizlikteki 1 birimlik artışın ise, kayıt dışı istihdam üzerinde 0.991’lik bir artış yaratması beklenmektedir.

🔖

Cite This Article

Çelik, R., Keskin, A., Keskin, A. (2021). The Impact of Economic Growth, Unemployment and Inflation on Informal Employment in Turkey: an ARDL Bounds Test Approach. Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi, Sayı: 80, 451–474. https://ajindex.com/articles/220488

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