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Journals / Selçuk Üniversitesi Akşehir Meslek Yüksekokulu Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi / 2026 / Sayı: 21

THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ON TOURISM INCOMES

İklim Değişikliğinin Etkileri: Turizm Gelirleri Üzerine Bir Ekonometrik Analiz

Muhammet Nimet Çavuş(AYDIN ADNAN MENDERES ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0003-0860-7643
Pages
66–77
Publication Date
2026-06-30
DOI
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

According to the results of robust regression analysis; an increase in renewable energy consumption in total final energy consumption, annual average open surface evaporation amount and CO2 emissions per capita affect the share of tourism revenues in GDP negatively, while an increase in precipitation, temperature, wind, snow and forest variables affect the share of tourism incomes in GDP positively.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:It is of great importance to analyse the effects of climate change on the sector in countries like Turkey, which has a significant potential in tourism.
📊
Key Findings & Data:Annual data covering the period 2004-2023 were used in the study.
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Conclusion & Impact:According to the results of robust regression analysis; an increase in renewable energy consumption in total final energy consumption, annual average open surface evaporation amount and CO2 emissions per capita affect the share of tourism revenues in GDP negatively, while an increase in precipitation, temperature, wind, snow and forest variables affect the share of tourism incomes in GDP positively.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:2004-2023 Verileri
⚙️Variables:İklim Değişikliği · Turizm Geliri · Robust Regresyon

Abstract

It is of great importance to analyse the effects of climate change on the sector in countries like Turkey, which has a significant potential in tourism. In this context, this study analyses the effects of climate change on the tourism sector in an econometric framework. The study aims to determine the impact of climate change indicators on tourism revenues in Turkey. Annual data covering the period 2004-2023 were used in the study. The dependent variable in the study is ‘Share of Tourism Incomes in GDP (%)’, while the independent variables are ‘Renewable Energy Consumption (% of total final energy consumption)’, ‘Annual Average Precipitation’, ‘Annual Average Temperature’, ‘Annual Average Wind Speed’, ‘Annual Average Number of Snowy Days’, ‘Annual Average Evaporation’, ‘Share of Forest Area in Land Area (%)’ and ‘Per Capita CO2 Emission’. According to the results of robust regression analysis; an increase in renewable energy consumption in total final energy consumption, annual average open surface evaporation amount and CO2 emissions per capita affect the share of tourism revenues in GDP negatively, while an increase in precipitation, temperature, wind, snow and forest variables affect the share of tourism incomes in GDP positively.

Özet

Türkiye gibi turizmde önemli bir potansiyele sahip ülkelerde iklim değişikliğinin sektöre etkilerini analiz etmek büyük önem taşımaktadır. Bu kapsamda çalışmada iklim değişikliğinin turizm sektörü üzerindeki etkileri ekonometrik bir çerçevede ele alınmıştır. Araştırmada Türkiye özelinde iklim değişikliğine ilişkin göstergelerin turizm gelirlerine etkisinin belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Araştırmada 2004-2023 dönemini kapsayan yıllık veriler kullanılmıştır. Araştırmada bağımlı değişken “Turizm Gelirlerinin GSYİH içindeki payı (%)”, bağımsız değişkenler ise, “Yenilenebilir Enerji Tüketimi (% toplam nihai enerji tüketimi)”, “Yıllık Ortalama Yağış”, “ Yıllık Ortalama Sıcaklık”, “Yıllık Ortalama Rüzgar Hızı”, “Yıllık Ortalama Karlı Gün Sayısı”, “Yıllık Ortalama Buharlaşma”, “Orman Alanının Kara Alanı İçindeki Payı (%)” ve “Kişi Başına Düşen CO2 Emisyonu” değişkenleridir. Robust regresyon analizi sonucuna göre; toplam nihai enerji tüketimi içindeki yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi, yıllık ortalama açık yüzey buharlaşma miktarı ve kişi başına düşen CO2 emisyonu değişkenlerindeki bir artış turizm gelirlerinin GSYİH içindeki payını negatif yönde etkilerken, yağış, sıcaklık, rüzgar, kar ve orman değişkenlerindeki bir artış turizm gelirlerinin GSYİH içindeki payını pozitif yönde etkilemektedir.

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Cite This Article

Çavuş, M. N. (2026). THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ON TOURISM INCOMES. Selçuk Üniversitesi Akşehir Meslek Yüksekokulu Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Sayı: 21, 66–77. https://ajindex.com/articles/1620878

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