It concludes that Israel has adopted an escalatory strategy, supported by enhanced intelligence integration with the United States and the use of artificial intelligence, in order to impose a sustained strategic cost that exhausts Iranian capabilities.
📌 3 Key Takeaways
🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This study aims to analyze the shifts in Israel’s security doctrine toward Iran in the aftermath of the October 7, 2023 attack, focusing on the transition from a policy of threat management and indirect deterrence to a more offensive approach based on direct confrontation and targeting Iran’s sources of power.
📊
Key Findings & Data:The study adopts an analytical methodology to examine the military, intelligence, and political tools employed by Israel to curb Iranian regional influence and reshape deterrence equations.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:It concludes that Israel has adopted an escalatory strategy, supported by enhanced intelligence integration with the United States and the use of artificial intelligence, in order to impose a sustained strategic cost that exhausts Iranian capabilities.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:2023 Verileri
⚙️Variables:الإستراتيجية الإسرائيلية · إيران · السابع من أكتوبر
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the shifts in Israel’s security doctrine toward Iran in the aftermath of the October 7, 2023 attack, focusing on the transition from a policy of threat management and indirect deterrence to a more offensive approach based on direct confrontation and targeting Iran’s sources of power. The study adopts an analytical methodology to examine the military, intelligence, and political tools employed by Israel to curb Iranian regional influence and reshape deterrence equations. It concludes that Israel has adopted an escalatory strategy, supported by enhanced intelligence integration with the United States and the use of artificial intelligence, in order to impose a sustained strategic cost that exhausts Iranian capabilities.
Al-Jazīra Net, Min Ghazza ilā Lubnān fa-Īrān. Limādhā Inhārat ʿAqīdat "Isrāʾīl" al-Amniyya Baʿda 7 Uktūbar?, accessed on 10 June 2026. https://n9.cl/lhmba
Muhannad Muṣṭafā, al-Jazīra Net. "al-Ḥarb ʿalā Īrān min al-Manẓūr al-Isrāʾīlī, 17 March 2026, accessed on 10 June 2026. https://n9.cl/mkvxw
Newsroom, Min al-Radʿ ilā al-Muwājaha al-Kāmila: "Isrāʾīl" Taṭmaʿ fī al-Haymana al-Iqlīmiyya, published on 14 September 2025, accessed on 11 June 2026. https://n9.cl/wtmbq.
Markaz Asbār li-l-Dirāsāt wa-l-Buḥūth, al-Ṣirāʿ al-Isrāʾīlī al-Īrānī: Ḥiwār maʿa Khubarāʾ RAND, 2 June 2025, accessed on 11 June 2026. https://n9.cl/som06q.
BBC News ʿArabī, Baʿda al-Hujūm al-Īrānī: Kayfa Yumkin an Tarudda "Isrāʾīl", wa-Mādhā Satafʿalu Ṭahrān?, 16 April 2024, accessed on 8 June 2026. https://n9.cl/mx7u3b.
CNN bi-al-ʿArabiyya, 'Ḥaddada ṭabīʿat al-ahdāf'. al-Jayš al-Isrāʾīlī yuʿlin tawjīh 'ḍarabāt daqīqa' li-Īrān, 25 October 2024, accessed on 08 June 2026. https://n9.cl/wz6ez.
Muhannad Muṣṭafā, Markaz al-Jazīra li-al-Dirāsāt, "al-Ḥarb ʿalā Īrān min al-Manẓūr al-Isrāʾīlī: al-Ahdāf wa-al-Ufuq al-Siyāsī," 13 March 2026, accessed on 10 June 2026. https://studies.aljazeera.net/ar/article/6468.
ʿAbd al-Raḥmān Fahīm, Markaz al-Ḥaḍāra li-al-Dirāsāt wa-al-Buḥūth, "al-Ḥarb bayna 'Isrāʾīl' wa-Īrān: al-Dhākira, Dīnāmiyyat al-Muwājaha wa-al-Taqyīm al-Istrātījī," 01 July 2025, accessed on 09 June 2026, https://n9.cl/nx35n.
Hājar Ayman, al-Markaz al-Miṣrī li-al-Fikr wa-al-Dirāsāt al-Istrātījiyya, "Taḥawwulāt al-Ṣirāʿ bayna Īrān wa-Isrāʾīl: min al-Radʿ al-Mutabādil ilā al-Muwājaha al-ʿAskariyya al-Mubāshira," 24 June 2025, accessed on 09 June 2026. https://n9.cl/eiifi6.
Ibid.
Al-Jazīra Net, "Hujūm Amrīkī Isrāʾīlī ʿalā Īrān wa-Infijārāt Tahuzz Manāṭiq Mutafarriqa," 28 February 2026, accessed on 09 June 2026. https://n9.cl/tbdre.
Ḥusayn Mashʿī, Ṣaḥīfat al-Waṭan al-Saʿūdiyya, "3 Sīnārīyūhāt Tarsum Maʾālāt al-Ṣirāʿ baʿda al-Hujūm ʿalā al-ʿUmq al-Īrānī," 01 March 2026, accessed on 09 June 2026. https://www.alwatan.com.sa/article/1177909.
Mehrān Kāmrāfā, al-Markaz al-ʿArabī li-al-Abḥāth wa-Dirāsat al-Siyāsāt, "al-Ḥarb ʿalā Īrān," 15 June 2026, accessed on 07 June 2026. https://n9.cl/2f32mz.
Waḥdat al-Dirāsāt al-Siyāsiyya, Maʿhad al-Doḥa li-al-Dirāsāt, "Radd Fiʿl 'Isrāʾīl' al-Maḥdūd ʿalā al-Hujūm al-Īrānī: Dawāfiʿuhu wa-Ahdāfuhu," 25 April 2024, accessed on 07 June 2026. https://n9.cl/drj2il.
Knights, Michael, and Michael Eisenstadt. Joint Deterrence: US-Israeli Operational Contingencies Against Iran's Nuclear Infrastructure. Policy Notes no. 142. Washington, DC: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2025.
Jones, Seth G. The Shadow War in the Open: Israel, Iran, and the Hybrid Warfare Post-October 7. Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2024.
Shaikh, Shayan, and Wes Rumbaugh. Israel’s October 2024 Strikes on Iran: Calibrating Red Lines and Deterrence. Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2024.
Orion, A., & Shinhar, Y. (2024). A New Equation? Analyzing Israel’s Directed Strikes Against Iran. Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). Insight No. 1915.
International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). 2025. "The 12-Day War and the New Iran-Israel Strategic Equation." IISS Strategic Comments 31, no. 5.
Bruchmann, Sascha, and Martin Sampson. The US-Israel Campaign in Iran. IISS Online Analysis. London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2026.
Amidror, Yaakov, and Kobi Michael. 2026. "Shifting the Paradigm: Israeli Intelligence and the Strategy of Direct Disruption inside Iran (2024–2026)." INSS Strategic Assessment 29.
Knights, Michael, and Ariane Tabatabai. 2025. "The Intelligence Nexus: CENTCOM and Israeli Operational Integration Post-October 7." Joint Force Quarterly / The Washington Institute Policy Notes, no. 148.
Amidror, Yaakov, and Kobi Michael. 2026. "Shifting the Paradigm: Israeli Intelligence and the Strategy of Direct Disruption inside Iran (2024–2026).
Knights, Michael, and Ariane Tabatabai. 2025. "The Intelligence Nexus: CENTCOM and Israeli Operational Integration Post-October 7."
Zimmt, Raz. 2024. "From Ideological Animosity to Strategic Rivalry: The Evolution of Iran’s Strategy Toward Israel." Tel Aviv: The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS).
The Washington Institute. 2026. "The U.S. and Israel Strike Iran / On War with Iran, a U.S.-Israeli Division of Labor?" Policy Analysis. Washington, DC: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
INSS. 2025. "The Iran–Israel War and the Stability of the Islamic Regime." Strategic Policy Memorandums. Tel Aviv: Institute for National Security Studies.
Zimmt, Raz. 2024. "From Ideological Animosity to Strategic Rivalry: The Evolution of Iran’s Strategy Toward Israel.".
The Washington Institute. 2026. "The U.S. and Israel Strike Iran / On War with Iran, a U.S.-Israeli Division of Labor?".
JIIA. 2026. "The US-Israel Attack on Iran and Its Impact on the Middle Eastern Order." JIIA Strategic Comments. Tokyo: The Japan Institute of International Affairs.