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Journals / Ortadoğu ve Göç / 2026 / Cilt: 16

A Study on the Relationship Between Migration and Economic Growth: The Turkish Economy in the Period 1990-2023

Göç ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi Üzerine Bir Araştırma: 1990-2023 Dönemi Türkiye Ekonomisi

Dilek Tuğlu Dur(İSKENDERUN TEKNİK ÜNİVERSİTESİ, DÖRTYOL MESLEK YÜKSEKOKULU)0000-0003-4586-1632
Ahmet Yılmaz Ata(GAZİANTEP ÜNİVERSİTESİ, İKTİSADİ VE İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ, İKTİSAT BÖLÜMÜ)0000-0001-5928-8801
Ayşe Eryer0000-0002-6556-1605
Pages
1–11
Publication Date
2026-08-06
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

In the long term, however, the increase in the number of refugees negatively and significantly affects the GDP level.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:Refugee movements are mass migrations caused by individuals or communities being forced to leave their countries due to war, human rights violations, or natural disasters.
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Key Findings & Data:This has become one of the most significant policy concerns and uncertainties for many nations.
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Conclusion & Impact:In the long term, however, the increase in the number of refugees negatively and significantly affects the GDP level.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:2012 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Mülteci Hareketleri · GSYH · Türkiye

Abstract

Refugee movements are mass migrations caused by individuals or communities being forced to leave their countries due to war, human rights violations, or natural disasters. This has become one of the most significant policy concerns and uncertainties for many nations. In recent years, discussions surrounding refugee movements have centered on whether this movement is beneficial to the economic performance of the host country. When refugees move from one country to another, they may bring new skills and perspectives that stimulate technological innovation and the economy, but increased heterogeneity can weaken social cohesion, create barriers to coordination and communication, and negatively impact economic growth. The refugee phenomenon is a crucial component in designing sustainable development policies, and investigating the multifaceted impacts of refugee movements is extremely important. Turkey, in particular, has experienced intense refugee waves in recent years due to its geopolitical location. The aim of this study is to investigate the potential impact of refugee movements on GDP in Turkey during the period 19902023. This effect was examined using the Bai-Perron test and the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Test) approach, taking structural breaks into account. According to the study findings, while no significant effect of the number of refugees on the GDP level was detected in the short term, significant negative structural breaks were found in 1997 and significant positive structural breaks in 2012. In the long term, however, the increase in the number of refugees negatively and significantly affects the GDP level.

Özet

Mülteci hareketleri, bireylerin ya da toplulukların savaş, insan hakları ihlalleri veya doğal afetler nedeniyle kendi ülkelerini terk etmek zorunda kalmasıyla oluşan kitlesel göçtür. Bu durum, birçok ulusun en önemli politika endişelerinden ve belirsizliklerinden biri haline gelmiştir. Son yıllarda mülteci hareketleriyle ilgili tartışmalar, bu hareketin ev sahibi ülkenin ekonomik performansı için yararlı olup olmadığı etrafında şekillenmiştir. Mülteciler bir ülkeden diğerine gittiğinde, teknolojik yeniliği ve ekonomiyi teşvik eden yeni bir beceri ve bakış açısı taşıyabilecekleri gibi aynı zamanda artan heterojenlik sosyal uyumu zayıflatabilmekte, koordinasyon ve iletişim engeli yaratabilmekte ve ekonomik büyümeyi olumsuz etkileyebilmektedir. Mülteci olgusu, sürdürülebilir kalkınma politikalarının tasarlanmasında önemli bir bileşendir ve mülteci hareketlerinin çok boyutlu etkilerini araştırmak oldukça önemlidir. Özellikle son yıllarda Türkiye jeopolitik konumu nedeniyle yoğun mülteci dalgalarına maruz kalmıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 1990-2023 döneminde Türkiye’de mülteci hareketlerinin GSYH düzeyi üzerindeki potansiyel etkisini araştırmaktır. Bu etki Bai-Perron testi ile yapısal kırılmalar dikkate alınarak ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Test/Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif Sınır Testi) yaklaşımıyla incelenmiştir. Çalışma bulgularına göre, kısa dönemde mülteci sayısının GSYH düzeyi üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi tespit edilemezken, 1997 yılında negatif ve 2012 yılında pozitif anlamlı yapısal kırılmalar bulunmuştur. Uzun dönemde ise mülteci sayısındaki artış GSYH düzeyini negatif ve anlamlı bir şekilde etkilemektedir.

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Cite This Article

Dur, D. T., Ata, A. Y., Eryer, A. (2026). A Study on the Relationship Between Migration and Economic Growth: The Turkish Economy in the Period 1990-2023. Ortadoğu ve Göç, Cilt: 16, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.31834/ortadoguvegoc.1919049

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