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Journals / The Journal of International Scientific Researches / 2026 / Cilt: 5 Sayı: 3

Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth in Brazil: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach

Brezilya’da Diş Borçların Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Sinir Testi Yaklaşımı

Tuğba Koyuncu(ESKİŞEHİR OSMANGAZİ ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-2721-1313
Hüseyin Demirhan(NEVŞEHİR HACI BEKTAŞ VELİ ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0003-3372-0832
Pages
191–202
Publication Date
2020-10-24
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

It was concluded that external debt had a negative effect on the economic growth.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:For developing countries, sustainable economic growth is one of the key macroeconomic objective.
📊
Key Findings & Data:In this study, the effect of various variables such as the ratio of external debt to GDP, ratio of debt service stock to GDP, the ratio of national expenditure to GDP, real Exchange rate, trade openness were investigated in the long run and short run.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:It was concluded that external debt had a negative effect on the economic growth.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:2015 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Dış Borç · Ekonomik Büyüme · ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Abstract

For developing countries, sustainable economic growth is one of the key macroeconomic objective. However not every country has enough capital to support GDP growth. Even that the country hasn’t enough national capital, the government can borrow some capital as external debt to support GDP growth. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic growth and external debt fort he Brazilian economy. In this study, the effect of various variables such as the ratio of external debt to GDP, ratio of debt service stock to GDP, the ratio of national expenditure to GDP, real Exchange rate, trade openness were investigated in the long run and short run. Accordingly, the effect of external debt on economic growth was determined with the help of ARDL Bound Test. The data used in the study covers the period of 1970-2015. Acording to the findings, a long- term relationship was found between external debt and growth rate in Brazil. It was concluded that external debt had a negative effect on the economic growth. According to this result, it is thought that developing countries external borrowing, providing sustainable debt and converting debt into investments will increase the GDP.

Özet

Gelişmekte olan ülkeler için sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyüme kilit makroekonomik hedeflerden biridir. Ancak her ülkenin GSYH büyümesini destekleyecek kadar sermayesi yoktur. Ülkenin yeterli ulusal sermayesi olmasa bile, hükümet GSYH büyümesini desteklemek için bir miktar dış borç olarak borç alabilir. Bu çalışmanın amacı Brezilya ekonomisindeki ekonomik büyüme ve dış borç arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir. Bu çalışmada, uzun ve kısa vadede dış borcun GSYH'ye oranı, borç hizmet stokunun GSYH'ye oranı, milli harcamaların GSYH'ye oranı, reel döviz kuru ve dışa açıklık değişkenlerin ekonomik büyümeye etkisi araştırılmıştır. Buna göre, dış borcun ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi ARDL Sınır Testi yardımıyla belirlenmiştir. Araştırmada kullanılan veriler 1970-2015 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Bulgulara göre, Brezilya'da dış borç ile büyüme oranı arasında uzun vadeli bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Dış borcun ekonomik büyüme üzerinde negatif etkisi olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Bu sonuca göre, gelişmekte olan ülkelerin dış borçlanmasının, sürdürülebilir borç sağlanmasının ve borçların yatırımlara dönüştürülmesinin GSYH'yi artıracağı düşünülmektedir.

🔖

Cite This Article

Koyuncu, T., Demirhan, H. (2020). Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth in Brazil: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach. The Journal of International Scientific Researches, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 3, 191–202. https://doi.org/10.23834/isrjournal.674985

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References (52)

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  28. Alı R., Mustafa U., (2012), “External Debt Accumulation And Its Impact On Economic Growth İn Pakistan”, The Pakistan Development Review, Vol. 51, No. 4, Papers And Proceedings Parts I And Iı The 28th Annual General Meeting And Conference Of The Pakistan Society Of Development Economists Islamabad, November 13-15, Pp. 79-95 Babic M. And Primorac E., (1986). “Some Causes Of The Growth Of The Yugoslav External Debt”, Soviet Studies, Vol. Xxxviii, No. 1, January 1986, 69-88
  29. Bal D.P., Rath B. N., (2014), “Public Debt And Economic Growth İn India: A Reassessment”, Economic Analysis And Policy 44, 292–300
  30. Banerjee, A., Galbraith, J. Ve Hendry, D. (1993),
  31. Cointegration, Error Correction And Econometric Analysis Of Non-Stationary Data, Oxford University Press,
  32. Oxford. Butts H. C., Mıtchell I., Berkoh A., (2012) “Economıc Growth Dynamıcs And Short-Term External Debt In Thaıland”, The Journal Of Developing Areas, Vol. 46, No. 1 (Spring 2012), Pp. 91-111 Casares E. R., (2015), “A Relatıonshıp Between External Publıc Debt And Economıc Growth”, Estudios Económicos, Vol. 30, No. 2 (60) Pp. 219-243
  33. Chaudhary M. A., Anwar S., Tahır P., (2000), “Foreign Debt, Dependency, And Economic Growth İn South Asia”, The Pakistan Development Review, Vol. 39, No. 4, Papers And Proceedings Part Iı Sixteenth Annual General Meeting And Conference Of The Pakistan Society Of Development Economists Islamabad, January 22-24, 2001, Pp. 551-570
  34. Chen C., Yao S., Hu P. Lın Y., (2016), “Optimal Government İnvestment And Public Debt İn An Economic Growth Model”, China Economic Review Dogan I., Bılgılı F., (2014) “The Non-Linear İmpact Of High And Growing Government External Debt On Economic Growth: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach”, Economic Modelling 39 213–220 Geıger L. T., (1990), “Debt And Economic Development İn Latin America”, The Journal Of Developing Areas, Vol. 24, No. 2, Pp. 181-194 Gómez-Puig M., Sosvilla-Rivero S., (2015), “The Causal Relationship Between Debt And Growth İn Emu Countries”, Journal Of Policy Modeling 37, 974–989 Gómez-Puig M., Sosvilla-Rivero S., (2017), “Heterogeneity İn The Debt-Growth Nexus: Evidence From Emu Countries”, International Review Of Economics And Finance 51, 470–486
  35. Greenıdge K., Drakes L., Craıgwell R., (2010), “The External Public Debt İn The Caribbean Community”, Journal Of Policy Modeling 32, 418–431
  36. Gül E., Kamacı A., Konya S., (2012) “Effect Of External Debt On Growth: The Case Of Central Asian Republics And Turkey“, International Conference On Eurasian Economies, Kazakistan, 11-13.
  37. Jayaraman T. K., Lau E., (2009), “Does External Debt Lead To Economic Growth İn Pacific İsland Countries”, Journal Of Policy Modeling 31, 272–288
  38. Karagoz M., Caglar M., (2015)“Does Debt Really Crack The Whip? Evidence From A Panel Of Selected Oecd Countries”, Istanbul Conference Of Economics And Finance, Icef 2015, 22-23 October 2015,
  39. Istanbul, Turkey Kraay A., Nehru V., (2006), “When Is External Debt Sustainable?”, The World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 20, No. 3, Pp. 341-365
  40. Ljırshar V. U., Joseph F., Godoo M., (2016 )“The Relationship Between External Debt And Economic Growth İn Nigeria”, International Journal Of Economics & Management Sciences, Sci 2016, 6:1 Metwally M. M., Tamaschke R., (1994), “The Foreıgn Debt Problem Of North Afrıcan Countrıes”, African Review Of Money Finance And Banking, No. ½, Pp. 109-122
  41. Muhanjı S., Ojah K., (2011), “External Shocks And Persistence Of External Debt İn Open Vulnerable Economies: The Case Of Africa”, Economic Modelling 28, 1615–1628
  42. Obudah, B.C. And Tombofa, S.S., (2013), “Effects Of Interest Rate And Debt On Equity Investment”. American Journal Of Humanities And Social Sciences. Vol. 1. Panızza U., Presbıtero A.F., (2014), “Public Debt And Economic Growth: Is There A Causal Effect?”, Journal Of Macroeconomics 41, 21–41
  43. Pesaran, Hashem M.; Shin, Yongcheol And Smith, Richard J., (2001), Bounds Testing Approaches To The Analysis Of Level Relationships, Journal Of Applied Econometrics, Vol.16, Pp. 289-32
  44. Prasad D., Rath B. N., (2014), “Public Debt And Economic Growth İn India: A Reassessment”, Economic Analysis And Policy 44, 292–300
  45. Ramzan M., Ahmad E., (2014), “External Debt Growth Nexus: Role Of Macroeconomic Polices”, Economic Modelling 38, 204–210
  46. Semmlera W., Tahrı I., (2017), “Current Account İmbalances: A New Approach To Assess External Debt Sustainability”, Economic Modelling 62, 161–170
  47. Sen S., Kasıbhatla K.M., Stewart D. B., (2007), “Debt Overhang And Economic Growth–The Asian And The Latin American Experiences”, Economic Systems 31, 3–11
  48. Sıddıque A., Selvanathan E.A., Selvanathan S., (2016), “The İmpact Of External Debt On Growth: Evidence From Highly İndebted Poor Countries”, Journal Of Policy Modeling 38, 874–894 Singh C., (1999) “Domestic Debt And Economic Growth İn India”, Economic And Political Weekly, Vol. 34, No. 23, Pp. 1445-1453
  49. Spılıotı S., Vamvoukas G., (2015), “The İmpact Of Government Debt On Economic Growth: An Empirical İnvestigation Of The Greek Market”, The Journal Of Economic Asymmetries 12, 34–40
  50. Stella M.A., Godwin U., Osmond A. C., (2016) "Impact Of External Debt On Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Ardl Bound Testing Approach", Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, Vol:7, 16-26, 2016
  51. Teles V. K., Mussolını C. C., (2014), “Public Debt And The Limits Of Fiscal Policy To İncrease Economic Growth”, European Economic Review 66, 1–15
  52. Umaru, A. Hamidu, A.A, And Musa, S., (2013).” External Debt And Domestic Impact On The Growth Of The Nigerian Economy.” International Journal Of Educational Research. Uysal D., Özer H., Mucuk M., (2009), ” Dış Borçlanma Ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği (1965-2007)”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt: 23, Sayı: 4, 2009 Wijnbergen S., (1991), “Debt Relief And Economic Growth İn Mexico”, The World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 5, No. 3, Pp. 437-455