SavedAdd your journal

Journals / İmgelem / 2026 / Sayı: 19

Türkiye-US Relations: The Anatomy of a Strategic Trust Crisis

Türkiye-ABD İlişkileri: Stratejik Güven Bunalımının Anatomisi

Hüseyin Yeltin(ANADOLU ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-4434-2358
Journal
İmgelem
Pages
87–116
Publication Date
2026-05-31
🏛️Bibliographic metadata and full text access for this article are provided via DergiPark.
DergiPark Record ↗
✨

AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Finally, the study offers realistic and viable policy recommendations regarding the future of Türkiye-US relations.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This article examines the strategic trust crisis in Türkiye-US relations, which has intensified since the 2010s and has recently acquired a structural character.
📊
Key Findings & Data:By focusing on the S-400 air defense system crisis, Türkiye’s subsequent expulsion from the F-35 program, and the politicization of the F-16 procurement process, the study analyzes how the trust deficit has evolved from a technical arms acquisition issue into a systemic institutional and political rupture within the alliance.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:Finally, the study offers realistic and viable policy recommendations regarding the future of Türkiye-US relations.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:Comprehensive Sample
⚙️Variables:Türkiye-ABD İlişkileri · Stratejik Güven · S-400 Krizi

Abstract

This article examines the strategic trust crisis in Türkiye-US relations, which has intensified since the 2010s and has recently acquired a structural character. By focusing on the S-400 air defense system crisis, Türkiye’s subsequent expulsion from the F-35 program, and the politicization of the F-16 procurement process, the study analyzes how the trust deficit has evolved from a technical arms acquisition issue into a systemic institutional and political rupture within the alliance. It is argued that this crisis cannot be reduced solely to divergent policy preferences; rather, it has deepened through the transformation of decision-making processes, the weakening of inter-institutional relations, and the erosion of alliance norms. Within this framework, the strategic and economic costs encountered by Türkiye in the short, medium, and long term, as well as the gains achieved, are evaluated. Finally, the study offers realistic and viable policy recommendations regarding the future of Türkiye-US relations.

Özet

Bu çalışma, 2010’lu yıllardan itibaren Türkiye-ABD münasebetlerinde ivme kazanan ve günümüzde yapısal bir boyuta ulaşan stratejik itimat zafiyetini mercek altına almaktadır. İncelemede, S-400 hava savunma sistemi tedariki neticesinde patlak veren kriz, Türkiye’nin F-35 projesinden ihraç edilmesi ve F-16 alım sürecinin politik bir zemine kayması temel alınarak; mevcut gerilimin salt bir askeri alım uyuşmazlığından öte, ittifakın kurumsal ve siyasi dokusunda meydana gelen bir ayrışmaya nasıl dönüştüğü irdelenmektedir. Söz konusu güven bunalımının sadece konjonktürel politika farklılıklarıyla açıklanamayacağı; aksine karar alma mekanizmalarındaki değişim, kurumlar arasındaki koordinasyonun zayıflaması ve müttefiklik hukukunu tanımlayan normların erozyona uğramasıyla kronikleştiği savunulmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, Ankara’nın farklı vadelerde göğüslemek durumunda kaldığı stratejik ve iktisadi bedeller ile elde ettiği stratejik kazanımlar mukayese edilmektedir. Makalenin sonuç kısmında ise, Türkiye-ABD ilişkilerinin istikbali için rasyonel ve tatbik edilebilir strateji projeksiyonları ortaya konulmaktadır.

🔖

Cite This Article

Yeltin, H. (2026). Türkiye-US Relations: The Anatomy of a Strategic Trust Crisis. İmgelem, Sayı: 19, 87–116. https://doi.org/10.53791/imgelem.1933771

📄 Full Text PDF Viewer

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

References (39)

  1. Akca, E. M., ve Yavuz, E. (2020). Turkey’s national defence industry: origins, transformation, and achievements. TRT World Research Center, 1-18.
  2. Aydın, S., ve Keyman, E. F. (2009). European integration and the transformation of Turkish democracy. CEPS Report.
  3. Beach, D., ve Pedersen, R. B. (2019). Process-tracing methods: Foundations and guidelines (2nd ed.). University of Michigan Press.
  4. Bilgin, P. (2005). Turkey’s changing security discourses: The challenge of globalisation. European Journal of Political Research, 44(1), 175-201. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2005.00223.x
  5. Congressional Research Service (2019). Turkey: background and U.S. Relations in brief. Washington, DC.
  6. Congressional Research Service. (2025). Turkey (Türkiye): majör issues and U.S. relations. Washington, DC.
  7. Deringil, S. (2023). Denge oyunu: İkinci Dünya Savaşı’nda Türkiye’nin dış politikası. Tarih Vakfı Yurt Yayınları.
  8. Devrim, M. S., ve Düz, S. (2024). Türkiye’nin geleceği milli muharip uçak KAAN. SETA Perspektif, Sayı 391.
  9. Haas, E. B. (1980). Why collaborate?: Issue-Linkage and International Regimes. World Politics, 32(3), 357-405. https://doi.org/10.2307/2010109
  10. Hale, W. (2013). Turkish foreign policy since 1774 (3rd ed.). Routledge.
  11. Jervis, R. (1978). Cooperation under the security dilemma. World Politics, 30(2), 167-214.
  12. Kaya, K. (2011). The Turkish-American crisis an analysis of 1 March 2003. Military Review. Army University. https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/military-review/Archives/English/MilitaryReview_20110831_art012.pdf
  13. Kılıç, M. (2025). Stratejik yeniden konumlanma ve askerî-teknolojik dönüşüm: NATO’nun yeni bölgesel planları üzerine inceleme (2023-2025). Savunma ve Güvenlik Araştırmaları Dergisi, 2(2), 211-240.
  14. Kibaroğlu, M. (2019). On Turkey’s missile defense strategy: the four faces of the S-400 deal between Turkey and Russia. Perceptions, 24(2-3), 159-174.
  15. Kinnvall, C., ve Mitzen, J. (2020). Anxiety, fear, and ontological security in world politics: thinking with and beyond Giddens. International Theory, 12, 240-256. https://doi.org/10.1017/S175297192000010X
  16. Küntay, İ. B. (2021). Türkiye-ABD ilişkilerinde dönüşen parametreler. Üçüncü Sektör Sosyal Ekonomi Dergisi, Third Sector Social Economic Review, 56(2), 579-597. https://doi.org/10.15659/3.sektor-sosyal-ekonomi.21.04.1510
  17. Lake, D. A. (1999). Entangling relations: American foreign policy in its century. Princeton University Press.
  18. Larrabee, F. S., ve Lesser, I. O. (2003). Turkish foreign policy in an age of uncertainty. RAND Corporation.
  19. Larrabee, S. F. (2010). Turkey’s new geopolitics. Survival, 52(2), 157-180. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396331003764686
  20. Lockheed Martin. (2018). F-35 global participation report. Fort Worth, TX. https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2018-12-20-Lockheed-Martin-Meets-2018-F-35-Production-Target-with-91-Aircraft-Deliveries
  21. Mearsheimer, J. J., ve Walt, S. M. (2016). The case for offshore balancing. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2016-06-13/case-offshore-balancing
  22. Mitzen, J. (2006). Ontological security in world politics: state identity and the security dilemma. European Journal of International Relations, 12(3), 341-370. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354066106067346
  23. NATO. (2018). Brussels summit declaration. NATO. https://www.nato.int/en/about-us/official-texts-and-resources/official-texts/2018/07/11/brussels-summit-declaration
  24. NATO. (2019). Joint press conference. NATO. https://www.nato.int/en/news-and-events/events/transcripts/2019/10/11/joint-press-conference
  25. Poghosyan, B. (2013). US-Turkish Relations in the Obama Era. The RUSI Journal, 158(1), 40-46. https://doi.org/10.1080/03071847.2013.774638
  26. Poyraz, M. (2025). NATO’s stance on the S-400 dispute: from being unconcerned to concerns and solution-seeking attempts. Uluslararası Yönetim Akademisi Dergisi, 8(4), 990-1004.
  27. Rathbun, B. C. (2012). Trust in international cooperation: International Security Institutions, Domestic Politics and American Multilateralism. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139044219
  28. Robins, P. (2013). Turkey’s double gravity predicament: The foreign policy of a newly activist power. Chatham House.
  29. Shahbazov, F. (2025). Exporting power: Türkiye’s defense industry and the politics of strategic autonomy. Trend Research ve Advisory. https://trendsresearch.org/insight/exporting-power-turkiyes-defense-industry-and-the-politics-of-strategic-autonomy/?srsltid=AfmBOopYOoaOmV-TRG9VN1tpAPXNFlApcDzgmuAPZZqSQMFbqteYRgQM
  30. Snyder, G. H. (1997). Alliance politics. Cornell University Press.
  31. Stein, A., ve Foley, J. (2016). The YPG-PKK connection. Atlantic Council Issue Brief.
  32. Taşpınar, Ö. (2008). Turkey’s Middle East policies: Between neo-Ottomanism and Kemalism. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
  33. U.S. Congress. (2017). Countering America’s adversaries through sanctions act (CAATSA). https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3364/text
  34. U.S. Department of Defense. (2019). U.S. begins process of “unwinding” Turkey from F-35 program, DOD officials say. https://www.war.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/1908351/us-begins-process-of-unwinding-turkey-from-f-35-program-dod-officials-say/
  35. U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee. (2020). Chairman Risch: Turkey’s test of S-400 system is unacceptable. https://www.foreign.senate.gov/press/rep/release/chairman-risch-turkeys-test-of-s-400-system-is-unacceptable
  36. Walt, S. M. (1987). The origins of alliances. Cornell University Press.
  37. Walt, S. M. (2009). Alliances in a unipolar world. World Politics, 61(1), 86-120.
  38. Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of international politics. McGraw-Hill.
  39. Yeltin, H. (2021). Türkiye ve S-400 hava savunma sistemleri: Türkiye-ABD-Rusya ilişkilerindeki yeri. Anadolu Strateji Dergisi, 3(1), 65-78.