SavedAdd your journal

Journals / Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 11 Sayı: 3

CARRY TRADE, COMMODITY PRICE REGIMES AND INSTITUTIONAL FRAGILITIES IN GLOBAL LIQUIDITY ARCHITECTURE

KÜRESEL LİKİDİTE MİMARİSİNDE TAŞIMA TİCARETİ, EMTİA FİYAT REJİMLERİ VE KURUMSAL KIRILGANLIKLAR

Hasan Tolga Ünal(HAVELSAN)0009-0008-6254-0885
Ali Alp(TOBB EKONOMİ VE TEKNOLOJİ ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0003-1469-5408
Gökhan Göksu(TOBB EKONOMİ VE TEKNOLOJİ ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0003-2325-193X
Pages
—
Publication Date
2026-08-05
🏛️Bibliographic metadata and full text access for this article are provided via DergiPark.
DergiPark Record ↗
✨

AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Findings indicate that metal price shocks are associated with asymmetric vulnerability patterns in commodity-exporting economies depending on their institutional capacity, and that these patterns cluster in ways consistent with differences in institutional frameworks.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This study examines the impact of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) post-1990 ultra-loose monetary policy regime and the 2024–2025 normalization steps on global metal prices, focusing on the JPY carry trade and institutional quality.
📊
Key Findings & Data:The 2025 metal bull market is evaluated as a composite result of monetary normalization, institutional risk perception, and geopolitical uncertainties.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:Findings indicate that metal price shocks are associated with asymmetric vulnerability patterns in commodity-exporting economies depending on their institutional capacity, and that these patterns cluster in ways consistent with differences in institutional frameworks.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:2024–2025 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Taşıma Ticareti · Asimetrik Şok · Kurumsal Kalite

Abstract

This study examines the impact of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) post-1990 ultra-loose monetary policy regime and the 2024–2025 normalization steps on global metal prices, focusing on the JPY carry trade and institutional quality. The analysis investigates how the BoJ’s expansionary policies transformed the global liquidity cycle by establishing the JPY as a structural funding currency, evolving metal prices into vulnerability indicators. The 2025 metal bull market is evaluated as a composite result of monetary normalization, institutional risk perception, and geopolitical uncertainties. Findings indicate that metal price shocks are associated with asymmetric vulnerability patterns in commodity-exporting economies depending on their institutional capacity, and that these patterns cluster in ways consistent with differences in institutional frameworks. While countries with robust institutional structures, such as Norway and Canada, manage this process as a window of opportunity, economies with institutional weaknesses face triggered financial instability. The analysis opens the global distributional effects of monetary policy normalization for discussion through the lens of institutional frameworks.

Özet

Bu çalışma, Japonya Merkez Bankası’nın (BoJ) 1990 sonrası ultra gevşek para politikası rejiminin ve 2024–2025 normalleşme adımlarının küresel metal fiyatları üzerindeki etkilerini, JPY taşıma ticareti (carry trade) ve kurumsal kalite ekseninde incelemektedir. Analiz, BoJ’un genişleyici politikalarının JPY’yi yapısal bir fonlama parası haline getirerek küresel likidite döngüsünü nasıl dönüştürdüğünü ve bu sürecte metal fiyatlarının birer kırılganlık göstergesine nasıl evrildiğini ortaya koymaktadır. 2025 metal boğası; para politikası normalleşmesi, kurumsal risk algısı ve jeopolitik belirsizliklerin bileşik bir sonucu olarak değerlendirilmektedir. Bulgular, metal fiyat şoklarının emtia ihracatçısı ekonomilerde kurumsal kapasiteye göre asimetrik kırılganlık örüntüleriyle ilişkilendiğine ve bu kırılganlıkların kurumsal mimariyle tutarlı bir biçimde kümelendiğine işaret etmektedir. Norveç ve Kanada gibi güçlü kurumsal yapıya sahip ülkeler bu süreci bir refah penceresi olarak yönetebilirken, kurumsal zafiyeti yüksek ekonomilerde aynı şoklar finansal istikrarsızlığı tetiklemektedir. Analiz, para politikası normalleşmesinin küresel dağılımsal etkilerini kurumsal mimari üzerinden tartışmaya açmaktadır.

🔖

Cite This Article

Ünal, H. T., Alp, A., Göksu, G. (2026). CARRY TRADE, COMMODITY PRICE REGIMES AND INSTITUTIONAL FRAGILITIES IN GLOBAL LIQUIDITY ARCHITECTURE. Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 3. https://doi.org/10.29106/fesa.1922817

📄 Full Text PDF Viewer

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

References (101)

  1. Ağca, Ş., & Celasun, O. (2009). How does public external debt affect corporate borrowing costs in emerging markets? IMF Working Paper No. 09/266. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
  2. Alberola, E., Cheng, G., Consiglio, A., & Zenios, S. A. (2022). Unconventional monetary policy and debt sustainability in Japan. BIS Working Paper No. 1034. Basel: Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Aloui, D., Benkraiem, R., Guesmi, K., & Mzoughi, H. (2023). Managing natural resource prices in a geopolitical risk environment. Resources Policy, 83, Article 103628.
  4. Altavilla, C., Burlon, L., Giannetti, M., & Holton, S. (2022). Is there a zero lower bound? The effects of negative policy rates on banks and firms. Journal of Financial Economics, 144(3), 885–907.
  5. Arezki, R., & Brückner, M. (2012). Commodity windfalls, democracy, and external debt. The Economic Journal, 122(561), 848–866.
  6. Arezki, R., Hadri, K., Loungani, P., & Rao, Y. (2013). Testing the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks. IMF Working Paper No. 13/180. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
  7. Arezki, R., Imam, P. A., Kpodar, K., & Le-Van, D. (2025). Shocks and shields: Macroeconomic institutions during commodity price swings. IMF Working Paper No. 25/015. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
  8. Asano, T., Cai, X., & Sakemoto, R. (2025). Global foreign exchange volatility, ambiguity, and currency carry trades. Journal of Banking & Finance, 178, Article 107613.
  9. Badawi, H., Hani, M., & Wattar, K. (2024). Quantitative easing in Japan: A longitudinal analysis of monetary policy effects and challenges. İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 39(4), 996–1010.
  10. Bank for International Settlements. (2001). The changing shape of fixed income markets: A collection of studies by central bank economists (BIS Papers No. 5). Basel: Bank for International Settlements.
  11. Bank for International Settlements. (2004). International convergence of capital measurement and capital standards: A revised framework. Basel: Bank for International Settlements.
  12. Bank of Japan. (2026). JPINTR [2007–2025]. Retrieved January 20, 2026, from https://www.boj.or.jp/en/statistics/
  13. Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. (1998). Enhancing bank transparency. Basel: Bank for International Settlements.
  14. Baunsgaard, T., Villafuerte, M., Poplawski-Ribeiro, M., & Richmond, C. (2012). Fiscal frameworks for resource rich developing countries (IMF Staff Discussion Note No. 12/04). Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
  15. Baur, D. G., & McDermott, T. K. (2010). Is gold a safe haven? International evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(8), 1886–1898.
  16. Ben Ameur, H., Jamaani, F., & Abu Alfoul, M. N. (2024). Examining the safe-haven and hedge capabilities of gold and cryptocurrencies: A GARCH and regression quantiles approach in geopolitical and market extremes. Heliyon, 10(22), e40400. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e40400
  17. Berkmen, P. (2012). Bank of Japan’s quantitative and credit easing: Are they now more effective? (IMF Working Paper No. 12/2). Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
  18. Blommestein, H. J., & Turner, P. (2012). Interactions between sovereign debt management and monetary policy under fiscal dominance and financial instability (OECD Working Papers on Sovereign Borrowing and Public Debt Management No. 3). Paris, France: OECD.
  19. Borio, C., & Gambacorta, L. (2017). Monetary policy and bank lending in a low interest rate environment: Diminishing effectiveness? BIS Working Papers No. 612. Basel: Bank for International Settlements.
  20. Botman, D., de Carvalho Filho, I., & Lam, W. R. (2013). The curious case of the yen as a safe haven currency (IMF Working Paper No. 13/228). Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
  21. Brunnermeier, M. K., Nagel, S., & Pedersen, L. H. (2009). Carry trades and currency crashes. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 23(1), 313–347.
  22. Brusuelas, J. (2025). Market Minute: Bank of Japan rate normalization demands investor attention. The Real Economy Blog.
  23. Burnside, C. (2011). Carry trades and risk (NBER Working Paper No. 17278). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
  24. Burnside, C., Eichenbaum, M., & Rebelo, S. (2011). Carry trade and momentum in currency markets. Annual Review of Financial Economics, 3(1), 511–535.
  25. Burgering, C. (2024). Copper is most essential in energy transition. ABN AMRO ESG Research.
  26. Chen, Q., Filardo, A. J., He, D., & Zhu, F. (2012). International spillovers of central bank balance sheet policies (BIS Papers No. 66). Basel: Bank for International Settlements.
  27. CME Group. (2025). Japanese yen futures volume & open interest. Retrieved from https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/fx/g10/japanese-yen.volume.html
  28. Countryeconomy.com. (2024). Government budget deficit 2024. Retrieved from https://countryeconomy.com/deficit
  29. Çambel, H., & Kaya, F. (2025). KOBİ’lerin katılım ve konvansiyonel bankalardaki kredi takip oranlarını etkileyen makroekonomik faktörler. Abant Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 25(3), 1324–1341. https://doi.org/10.11616/asbi.1742528
  30. D’Arista, J. (2009). The evolving international monetary system. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 33(4), 633–652.
  31. Della Corte, P., Riddiough, S., & Sarno, L. (2016). Currency premia and global imbalances. Review of Financial Studies, 29(8), 2161–2193.
  32. Doğan, İ. (2022). Türkiye’de faaliyet gösteren bankalar üzerine stres testi uygulaması. Abant Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi.
  33. Dutta, A. (2019). Impact of silver price uncertainty on solar energy firms. Journal of Cleaner Production, 225, 1044–1051.
  34. Eggertsson, G. B., & Woodford, M. (2003). The zero bound on interest rates and optimal monetary policy. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2003(1), 139–211.
  35. Emmrich, O., & McGroarty, F. J. (2013). Should gold be included in institutional investment portfolios? Applied Financial Economics, 23(19), 1553–1565.
  36. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (2026). JPNASSETS / JPGDP [1999–2026]. Retrieved January 15, 2026, from https://fred.stlouisfed.org
  37. Fong, W. M. (2010). A stochastic dominance analysis of yen carry trades. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(6), 1237–1246.
  38. Frankel, J. A. (2007). Getting carried away: How the carry trade and its potential unwinding can explain movements in international financial markets. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University.
  39. Fries, S. M. (1993). Japanese banks and the asset price “bubble” (IMF Working Paper No. 93/85). Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
  40. Fujiki, H., Okina, K., & Shiratsuka, S. (2001). Monetary policy under zero interest rate: Viewpoints of central bank economists. Monetary and Economic Studies, 19(1), 89–130.
  41. Gagnon, J. E., & Chaboud, A. P. (2007). What can the data tell us about carry trades in Japanese yen? (International Finance Discussion Papers No. 899). Washington, DC: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
  42. Ganelli, G., & Tawk, N. (2016). Spillovers from Japan’s unconventional monetary policy to emerging Asia: A global VAR approach (IMF Working Paper No. 16/99). Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
  43. Ghosh, A. (2016). What drives gold demand in central bank’s foreign exchange reserve portfolio? Finance Research Letters, 17, 146–150.
  44. Goldgar, A. (2007). Tulipmania: Money, honor, and knowledge in the Dutch Golden Age. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
  45. Gower, L. (2000). Some structural causes of Japan’s banking problems (RDP 2000-03). Sydney: Reserve Bank of Australia.
  46. Haba, S., Ito, Y., & Kasai, Y. (2025). The impact of negative interest rate policy on interest rate formation and lending (BoJ Working Paper Series No. 25-E-1). Tokyo: Bank of Japan.
  47. Hausman, J. K., & Wieland, J. F. (2015). Overcoming the lost decades? Abenomics after three years. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2015(1), 385–431.
  48. Hattori, M., & Shin, H. S. (2009). Yen carry trade and the subprime crisis. IMF Staff Papers, 56(2), 384–409. Hayakawa, H. (2020). Monetary policy in the Abe era: A summative assessment. Tokyo Foundation Policy Review.
  49. Honda, Y., & Inoue, H. (2019). The effectiveness of the negative interest rate policy in Japan. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 52, 1–16.
  50. International Monetary Fund. (2003). Japan’s lost decade: Lessons for the world. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
  51. International Monetary Fund. (2019). Commodity market developments and forecasts. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
  52. International Monetary Fund. (2024). Fiscal Forum: Leveraging fiscal rules and frameworks to navigate today’s fiscal challenges [Conference session]. IMF Spring Meetings 2024.
  53. International Monetary Fund. (2025). Japan: 2025 Article IV consultation—Press release; staff report; and statement by the executive director for Japan (IMF Country Report No. 25/82). Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
  54. Ito, T., & Mishkin, F. S. (2006). Two decades of Japanese monetary policy and the deflation problem. In T. Ito & A. K. Rose (Eds.), Monetary policy with very low inflation in the Pacific Rim (pp. 131–197). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
  55. Iwata, K., & Takenaka, S. (2012). Central bank balance sheet expansion: Japan’s experience. In BIS Papers No. 66. Basel: Bank for International Settlements.
  56. Japan 10-year government bond yield (1989–2025). (2026). Retrieved January 14, 2026, from Macrotrends website: https://www.macrotrends.net/4841/japan-10-year-government-bond-yield Japan’s monetary tightening: Implications for global carry trades and emerging markets. (2025, December 17). AInvest Macro Insights.
  57. Jia, L., Xu, R., Wu, J., Song, M., & Chen, X. (2023). Impacts of geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty on metal futures price volatility: Evidence from China. Resources Policy, 87, Article 103955.
  58. Karamti, C., & Belhassine, O. (2022). COVID-19 pandemic waves and global financial markets: Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis. Finance Research Letters, 45, Article 102217.
  59. Koo, R. (2003). Balance sheet recession: Japan’s struggle with uncharted economics and its global implications. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
  60. Lee, S. S., & Wang, M. (2019). The impact of jumps on carry trade returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 131(2), 433–455.
  61. Mackay, C. (1841). Extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds. London: Richard Bentley. Martin, R., & Kole, L. (2008). Overview of Japan’s monetary policy responses to deflation. Washington, DC: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
  62. Masanao, T. (2024). Bank of Japan’s policy shift ushers in a new era for investors. PIMCO Insights. McCauley, R. N., McGuire, P., & Sushko, V. (2015). Dollar credit to emerging market economies. BIS Quarterly Review, December, 27–41.
  63. Menkhoff, L., Sarno, L., Schmeling, M., & Schrimpf, A. (2012). Carry trades and global foreign exchange volatility. The Journal of Finance, 67(2), 681–718.
  64. Ming, L., Yang, P., & Liu, Q. (2023). Is gold a hedge or a safe haven against stock markets? Evidence from conditional comoments. Journal of Empirical Finance, 74, Article 101427.
  65. Naidoo, T., Moores-Pitt, P., & Muzindutsi, P. F. (2025). The effect of investor sentiment on stock market liquidity under changing market conditions: Evidence from South Africa. Cogent Economics & Finance, 13(1), Article 2444395.
  66. Nakazawa, T., & Osada, M. (2024). The Bank of Japan’s large-scale government bond purchases and the formation of long-term interest rates (BoJ Working Paper). Tokyo: Bank of Japan.
  67. Norland, E. (2025). Copper’s rise in the energy transition. CME Group OpenMarkets.
  68. Otsubo, K. P. (2023). The effects of unconventional monetary policy in Japan: New evidence from time-varying parameter VAR analysis. The Singapore Economic Review, 68(2), 609–628.
  69. Ponomareva, N., Sheen, J., & Wang, B. Z. (2024). Metal and energy price uncertainties and the global economy. Journal of International Money and Finance, 143, Article 103044.
  70. Raheem, I. D. (2021). COVID-19 pandemic and the safe haven property of Bitcoin. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 81, 370–375.
  71. Salisu, A. A., Raheem, I. D., & Vo, X. V. (2021). Assessing the safe haven property of the gold market during COVID-19 pandemic. International Review of Financial Analysis, 74, Article 101663.
  72. Sebastian, K. S. (2025). The role of gold as a safe haven asset during financial crises: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic & the 2008 global financial crises. Journal of Asia Entrepreneurship and Sustainability, 21(2), 19–24. https://doi.org/10.53555/jaes.v21i2.23
  73. Spiegel, M. M. (2006). Did quantitative easing by the Bank of Japan “work”? FRBSF Economic Letter, 2006(28), 1–3.
  74. Steil, B. (2014). The battle of Bretton Woods: John Maynard Keynes, Harry Dexter White, and the making of a new world order. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  75. Takagi, K. (1989). The rise of land prices in Japan: The determination mechanism and the effect of taxation system. Monetary and Economic Studies, 7(2), 93–139.
  76. Trading Economics. (2023). Congo exports by category. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/congo/exports-by-category
  77. Trading Economics. (2024). Canada exports by category. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/exports-by-category
  78. Trading Economics. (2024). Chile exports by category. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/chile/exports-by-category
  79. Trading Economics. (2024). Norway exports by category. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/norway/exports-by-category
  80. Trading Economics. (2024). Peru exports by category. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/peru/exports-by-category
  81. Trading Economics. (2024). Zambia exports by category. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/zambia/exports-by-category
  82. TradingView. (2026). BBG: BCOM [2008–2025]. Retrieved January 20, 2026, from https://www.tradingview.com
  83. TradingView. (2026). Capital.com: COPPER [2008–2025]. Retrieved January 20, 2026, from https://www.tradingview.com
  84. TradingView. (2026). FXCM: U.S. dollar/Japanese yen [2008–2025]. Retrieved January 20, 2026, from https://www.tradingview.com
  85. TradingView. (2026). ICE: Japanese yen/U.S. dollar [2008–2025]. Retrieved January 20, 2026, from https://www.tradingview.com
  86. TradingView. (2026). ICE: Chilean peso/U.S. dollar [2020–2026]. Retrieved June 5, 2026, from https://www.tradingview.com
  87. TradingView. (2026). ICE: Peruvian nuevo sol/U.S. dollar [2020–2026]. Retrieved June 5, 2026, from https://www.tradingview.com
  88. TradingView. (2026). ICE: Zambian kwacha/U.S. dollar [2020–2026]. Retrieved June 5, 2026, from https://www.tradingview.com
  89. TradingView. (2026). MCX: Copper futures [2020–2026]. Retrieved June 5, 2026, from https://www.tradingview.com
  90. TradingView. (2026). NYSE: Canadian dollar/U.S. dollar [2020–2026]. Retrieved June 5, 2026, from https://www.tradingview.com
  91. TradingView. (2026). NYSE: Norwegian kroner/U.S. dollar [2020–2026]. Retrieved June 5, 2026, from https://www.tradingview.com
  92. TradingView. (2026). OANDA: Gold spot/U.S. dollar [2019–2025]. Retrieved January 20, 2026, from https://www.tradingview.com
  93. TradingView. (2026). TradingView Charts (TVC): GOLDSILVER [2008–2025]. Retrieved January 20, 2026, from https://www.tradingview.com
  94. TradingView. (2026). TradingView Charts (TVC): JP10Y [2007–2025]. Retrieved January 20, 2026, from https://www.tradingview.com
  95. TradingView. (2026). TradingView Charts (TVC): SILVER [2008–2025]. Retrieved January 20, 2026, from https://www.tradingview.com
  96. TradingView. (2026). TradingView Charts (TVC): VIX [2008–2025]. Retrieved January 20, 2026, from https://www.tradingview.com
  97. TradingView. (2026). TradingView Economics: JPCBBS / (JPGDP–JPINTR–JP10Y) [2007–2025]. Retrieved January 20, 2026, from https://www.tradingview.com
  98. van der Nest, M., & van Vuuren, G. (2023). Metal price behaviour during recent crises: COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Journal of Economic and Financial Sciences, 16(1), 1–15.
  99. Watugala, S. W. (2015). Economic uncertainty and commodity futures volatility (OFR Working Paper No. 15-14). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2533995
  100. Westelius, N. J. (2020). Twenty years of unconventional monetary policies: Lessons and way forward for the Bank of Japan (IMF Working Paper No. 20/226). Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
  101. World Bank. (2025). Worldwide Governance Indicators: Interactive data access. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/worldwide-governance-indicators/interactive-data-access