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Journals / Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 11 Sayı: 3

UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FRAGILE FIVE COUNTRIES AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP WITH EXCHANGE RATES: IMPLICATIONS FOR PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

KIRILGAN BEŞLİ ÜLKELERİNDE BELİRSİZLİKLER VE DÖVİZ KURU İLİŞKİSİ: PORTFÖY YÖNETİMİ İÇİN ÇIKARIMLAR

Murat Topcu(İstanbul Gelişim Üniversitesi)0000-0003-0660-6399
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Publication Date
2026-10-01
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

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⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The results indicate that uncertainty stemming from economic and monetary policies, along with geopolitical risks, plays a far more dominant role in determining the USD/TRY exchange rate compared to other countries.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:Financial Asset Pricing Models consider exchange rate risk to be one of the key factors influencing portfolio management.
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Key Findings & Data:In this context, the study focuses on answering the question: “What factors contribute to the formation of exchange rates?” It examines the exchange rates of the Fragile Five countries (South Africa, Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Turkey) in relation to the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) a metric frequently used in the literature the Global Economic Uncertainty Index (GEPU), the Oil Price Uncertainty Index (OPU), the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR), and the U.S.
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Conclusion & Impact:The results indicate that uncertainty stemming from economic and monetary policies, along with geopolitical risks, plays a far more dominant role in determining the USD/TRY exchange rate compared to other countries.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:Comprehensive Sample
⚙️Variables:Portföy yönetimi · Belirsizlik Endeksleri · Kırılgan Beşli Ülkeleri

Abstract

Financial Asset Pricing Models consider exchange rate risk to be one of the key factors influencing portfolio management. In this context, the study focuses on answering the question: “What factors contribute to the formation of exchange rates?” It examines the exchange rates of the Fragile Five countries (South Africa, Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Turkey) in relation to the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) a metric frequently used in the literature the Global Economic Uncertainty Index (GEPU), the Oil Price Uncertainty Index (OPU), the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR), and the U.S. Baker-Bloom-Davis Monetary Policy Uncertainty Index (BBDMPU). The causal relationship between uncertainty and risk indices and the exchange rates of the Fragile Five countries is heterogeneous. Among the countries, the USTTRY exchange rate in Turkey exhibits a more negative divergence in terms of sensitivity to uncertainty and risk. A one-way Granger causality relationship has been identified between changes in the GEPU, GPR, and BBDMPU uncertainty indices and the formation of the USDTRY exchange rate. The results indicate that uncertainty stemming from economic and monetary policies, along with geopolitical risks, plays a far more dominant role in determining the USD/TRY exchange rate compared to other countries. Heterogeneity among countries contributes to decision-making processes for portfolio managers regarding international portfolio diversification and the management and mitigation of portfolio risk associated with exchange rate risk. Investors trading in the financial markets of the Fragile Five countries are advised to consider the differing effects of uncertainty indices on exchange rates when making decisions regarding entry into and exit from the country.

Özet

Finansal Varlıkları Fiyatlama Modelleri; kur riskini portföy yönetimini etkileyen önemli faktörlerden birisi olarak değerlendirmektedir. Çalışma bu bağlamda kurların oluşumuna hangi faktörler neden olmaktadır? sorusunun cevabına odaklanmaktadır. Kırılgan Beşli Ükeleri (Güney Afrika, Brezilya, Hindistan, Endonezya ve Türkiye) döviz kurları ile literatürde sık kullanılan Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksi WUI), Küresel Ekonomi Belirsizlik endeksi (GEPU), Petrol Fiyatı Belirsizliği Endeksi (OPU), Jeopolitik Risk Endeksi (GPR), ABD Baker-Bloom-Davis Para Politikası Belirsizlik Endeksi (BBDMPU) arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini analiz etmektedir. Belirsizlik ve risk endekslerinin Kırılgan Beşli Ülke döviz kurları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi heterojendir. Ülkeler arasında Türkiye USTTRY döviz kuru, belirsizlik ve risklere karşı duyarlılığı yönünden daha negatif ayrışmaktadır. USDTRY döviz kuru oluşumunda GEPU, GPR, BBDMPU belirsizlik endekslerindeki değişimler arasında tek yönlü Granger nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmişitr. Sonuçlar ekonomik ve para politikalarından kaynaklı belirsizlik ile jeopolitik risklerin diğer ülkelere göre USDTRY döviz kurunun oluşumunda çok daha baskın olduğunu göstermektedir. Ülkeler arasındaki heterojenlik portföy yöneticileri için uluslararası portföy çeşitlendirmesi, kur riskine bağlı portföy riskinin yönetilmesi ve azaltılmasına yönelik karar süreçlerine katkı sağlar. Kırılgan beşli ülke finansal piyasalarına işlem yapan yatırımcılar, ülkeye giriş-çıkış kararlarında kur tahmininlemesinde belirsizlik endekslerinin ülkelerin döviz kurları üzerindeki farklı etkilerini dikkate almaları önerilir.

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Cite This Article

Topcu, M. (2026). UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FRAGILE FIVE COUNTRIES AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP WITH EXCHANGE RATES: IMPLICATIONS FOR PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT. Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 3. https://doi.org/10.29106/fesa.1925088

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