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Journals / Bankacılar / 2015 / Cilt: 26 - Sayı: 95

The Effect of Sovereign Risk Premium Shock On Inflation: The Turkish Case

Ülke Risk Primi Şokunun Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

SERDAR VARLIK
NİMET VARLIK
Pages
3–16
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Thereby, empirical evidences put forward the importance that CBRT responses in a countercyclical way to sovereign risk premium shocks in terms of alleviating the inflationist pressures.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:In this study, it is investigated by using Vector Autoregression (VAR) model how sovereign risk premium shock affects the success of monetary policy implemented by Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) at full-fledged inflation targeting period.
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Key Findings & Data:According to emprical evidences; (i) the effects of sovereign risk premium shock on inflation rate are seen in the short term, (ii) CBRT’s implementation of countercyclical monetary policy state can not prevent thoroughly the inflationary pressures of sovereign risk premium shock but this monetary policy state contributes partially to decrease the effects of sovereign risk premium shock on inflation.
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Conclusion & Impact:Thereby, empirical evidences put forward the importance that CBRT responses in a countercyclical way to sovereign risk premium shocks in terms of alleviating the inflationist pressures.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:Comprehensive Sample
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

In this study, it is investigated by using Vector Autoregression (VAR) model how sovereign risk premium shock affects the success of monetary policy implemented by Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) at full-fledged inflation targeting period. According to emprical evidences; (i) the effects of sovereign risk premium shock on inflation rate are seen in the short term, (ii) CBRT’s implementation of countercyclical monetary policy state can not prevent thoroughly the inflationary pressures of sovereign risk premium shock but this monetary policy state contributes partially to decrease the effects of sovereign risk premium shock on inflation. Thereby, empirical evidences put forward the importance that CBRT responses in a countercyclical way to sovereign risk premium shocks in terms of alleviating the inflationist pressures.

Özet

Bu çalışmada, ülke risk primi şokunun Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası’nın (TCMB) açık enflasyon hedeflemesi döneminde uyguladığı para politikasının başarısını ne şekilde etkilediği, Vector Autoregression (VAR) modeli kullanılarak incelenmektedir. Ampirik bulgulara göre; (i) ülke risk primi şokunun enflasyon oranı üzerindeki etkileri kısa dönemde görülmektedir, (ii) TCMB’nin uyguladığı konjonktür karşıtı para politikası duruşu, ülke risk primi şokunun enflasyonist baskılarını tamamen önleyememekte, ancak bu para politikası duruşu, ülke risk primi şokunun enflasyon üzerindeki etkilerini kısmen azaltmaya yardımcı olmaktadır. Dolayısıyla, ampirik bulgular TCMB’nin ülke risk primi şoklarına konjonktür karşıtı tepki vermesinin enflasyonist baskıyı hafifletmek açısından önemini ortaya koymaktadır.

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Cite This Article

VARLIK, S., VARLIK, N. (2015). The Effect of Sovereign Risk Premium Shock On Inflation: The Turkish Case. Bankacılar, Cilt: 26 - Sayı: 95, 3–16. https://ajindex.com/articles/147432

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