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Journals / Sosyoekonomi / 2020 / Cilt: 28 - Sayı: 45

Is PMI a Leading Indicator: Case of Turkey

PMI Öncü Bir Gösterge mi? Türkiye Örneği

Saffet AKDAĞ
Ali DERAN
Ömer İSKENDEROĞLU
Pages
37–47
Publication Date
2020-07-30
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

However, the same result does not apply to the financial sector.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:In this study, the causal relationships of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) with various financial factors are examined.
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Key Findings & Data:As a result of the analysis, it is determined that the change in the Istanbul-Stock-Exchange-Industry Index (ISEIND) causes the change in the PMI and the changes in the PMI also causes the changes in the Industrial-Production Index (IPI) and the Capacity-Utilization-Rates (CUR).
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Conclusion & Impact:However, the same result does not apply to the financial sector.
🔬Design:Research Article
📍Scope:Comprehensive Sample
⚙️Variables:Satınalma Yöneticileri Endeksi · BİST Sanayi Endeksi · Sanayi Üretim Endeksi

Abstract

In this study, the causal relationships of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) with various financial factors are examined. As a result of the analysis, it is determined that the change in the Istanbul-Stock-Exchange-Industry Index (ISEIND) causes the change in the PMI and the changes in the PMI also causes the changes in the Industrial-Production Index (IPI) and the Capacity-Utilization-Rates (CUR). It is also determined that the causality towards to PMI from the ISEIND and causality towards IPI from PMI is valid in the medium- and long-run, whereas the causality towards PMI to CUR are valid for the all periods. According to these results, PMI can be considered as a leading indicator for the real sector. However, the same result does not apply to the financial sector.

Özet

Bu çalışmada Satınalma Yöneticileri Endeksi (PMI) ile çeşitli finansal faktörler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi araştırılmıştır. Analiz sonucunda BİST Sanayi Endeksindeki değişimin PMI’daki değişimin nedeni olduğu, PMI’daki değişimin ise Sanayi Üretim Endeksi (SÜE) ve Kapasite Kullanım Oranındaki (KKO) değişimin nedeni olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca BİST Sanayi Endeksinden PMI’ya doğru nedenselliğin orta ve uzun dönemli, benzer şekilde PMI’dan SÜE doğru nedenselliğinde yine orta ve uzun dönemli olduğu, ancak PMI’dan KKO’na doğru nedenselliğin ise tüm dönemlerde geçerli olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlara göre PMI’ın reel sektör için öncü bir gösterge olabileceği değerlendirilebilirken, finansal sektör için benzer bir durumun söz konusu olmadığı değerlendirilmektedir.

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Cite This Article

AKDAĞ, S., DERAN, A., İSKENDEROĞLU, Ö. (2020). Is PMI a Leading Indicator: Case of Turkey. Sosyoekonomi, Cilt: 28 - Sayı: 45, 37–47. https://ajindex.com/articles/139585

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