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Journals / Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Meslek Yüksekokulu Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 29 Sayı: 2026

The Impact of Political Elections on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

Siyasi Seçimlerin Finansal Piyasalar Üzerindeki Etkisi: 2024 Amerika Başkanlık Seçimleri Olay Çalışması

Kudbeddin Şeker(KÜTAHYA DUMLUPINAR ÜNİVERSİTESİ, KÜTAHYA UYGULAMALI BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ, SİGORTACILIK BÖLÜMÜ)0000-0001-6705-2890
Seval Çetinoğlu(KÜTAHYA DUMLUPINAR ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-4597-1033
Pages
70–80
Publication Date
2026-05-04
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The findings indicate that markets exhibited only a limited short-term reaction and that the election process did not produce statistically significant differences in long-term pricing behavior.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:The United States presidential election held on November 5, 2024, generated significant effects on global financial markets, particularly on emerging economies.
📊
Key Findings & Data:The findings indicate that markets exhibited only a limited short-term reaction and that the election process did not produce statistically significant differences in long-term pricing behavior.
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Conclusion & Impact:These results suggest that the impact of presidential elections on financial markets is largely confined to expectation management and contribute to the literature by enhancing the understanding of how electoral uncertainty influences market dynamics.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:2024 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Hisse Senedi Getirileri · Olay Çalışması · Finansal Piyasalar

Abstract

The United States presidential election held on November 5, 2024, generated significant effects on global financial markets, particularly on emerging economies. The primary objective of this study is to identify the changes in stock returns of the EAGLES (Emerging and Growth-Leading Economies: Turkey, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, China, India, Indonesia, and other emerging market countries included in the MSCI) stock indices during the pre-election, election day, and post-election periods. The analysis is conducted using the event study methodology and the paired sample t-test. The findings indicate that markets exhibited only a limited short-term reaction and that the election process did not produce statistically significant differences in long-term pricing behavior. These results suggest that the impact of presidential elections on financial markets is largely confined to expectation management and contribute to the literature by enhancing the understanding of how electoral uncertainty influences market dynamics.

Özet

2024 yılı 5 Kasım tarihinde gerçekleştirilen Amerika Birleşik Devletleri başkanlık seçimi, küresel finansal piyasalarda özellikle gelişmekte olan ekonomiler üzerinde önemli etkiler yaratmıştır. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, EAGLES (Yükselen ve Büyümenin Öncüsü Ekonomiler: Türkiye, Brezilya, Meksika, Rusya, Çin, Hindistan, Endonezya ve MSCI kapsamındaki diğer gelişmekte olan piyasa ülkeleri) ülkelerinin borsa endeksleri üzerinde seçim öncesi, günü ve sonrası dönemlerde oluşan hisse senedi getirilerindeki değişimleri tespit etmektir. Bu analiz; olay çalışması (event study) metodu ve bağımlı örneklem t-testi ile gerçekleştirilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, piyasanın kısa vadede sınırlı tepki verdiğini ve seçim sürecinin uzun vadeli fiyatlama davranışlarında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir farklılık yaratmadığını göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar, başkanlık seçimlerinin finansal piyasalar üzerindeki etkisinin çoğunlukla beklenti yönetimiyle sınırlı kaldığını ortaya koymakta ve seçim belirsizliğinin piyasa dinamiklerine etkisini anlamada literatüre katkı sağlamaktadır.

🔖

Cite This Article

Şeker, K., Çetinoğlu, S. (2026). The Impact of Political Elections on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Meslek Yüksekokulu Dergisi, Cilt: 29 Sayı: 2026, 70–80. https://doi.org/10.29249/selcuksbmyd.1773551

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