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Journals / Politik Ekonomik Kuram / 2026 / Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2

Determinants of Internal Migration in Türkiye: Evidence from a Spatial Panel SAR Model

Türkiye’de İç Göçün Belirleyicilerinin Ekonometrik Analizi: Mekânsal Panel SAR Modeli Bulguları

Sinan Çinar(EGE UNIVERSITY)0000-0002-2756-5875
Banu Has(ISTANBUL OKAN UNIVERSITY)0000-0001-7693-8490
Pages
498–517
Publication Date
2026-06-25
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The empirical results indicate that regional economic growth and human capital significantly influence migration patterns.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:Internal migration constitutes one of the most important mechanisms shaping regional demographic structures and economic dynamics.
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Key Findings & Data:This study examines the determinants of interprovincial migration in Türkiye using annual provincial data covering the period 2008–2020.
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Conclusion & Impact:The empirical results indicate that regional economic growth and human capital significantly influence migration patterns.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2008–2020 Verileri
⚙️Variables:İç Göç · Teknoloji · Beşeri Sermaye

Abstract

Internal migration constitutes one of the most important mechanisms shaping regional demographic structures and economic dynamics. Understanding the factors that drive population mobility across regions is therefore crucial for both economic analysis and regional policy design. This study examines the determinants of interprovincial migration in Türkiye using annual provincial data covering the period 2008–2020. The analysis employs a spatial panel data framework and estimates a Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) model to capture both direct regional effects and spatial spillovers among provinces. The empirical results indicate that regional economic growth and human capital significantly influence migration patterns. Provinces with higher levels of economic activity and a greater concentration of university graduates tend to attract more migrants, highlighting the importance of economic opportunities and skilled labor environments in shaping mobility decisions. Public investment also exhibits a positive but relatively modest impact on migration flows. In contrast, technological development does not appear to exert a statistically significant influence on migration dynamics. Furthermore, the positive and significant spatial autoregressive parameter reveals the presence of spatial interdependence in migration flows across provinces. Overall, the findings emphasize that internal migration in Türkiye is closely linked to regional economic disparities and spatial interactions among provinces.

Özet

İç göç, bölgelerin demografik yapısını ve ekonomik dinamiklerini şekillendiren en önemli mekanizmalardan biridir. Bu nedenle bölgeler arası nüfus hareketliliğini belirleyen faktörlerin anlaşılması hem ekonomik analizler hem de bölgesel politika tasarımları açısından büyük önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de iller arası iç göçün belirleyicilerini 2008–2020 dönemine ait yıllık il verilerini kullanarak incelemektedir. Analizde, bölgeler arası etkileşimleri dikkate alabilmek amacıyla mekânsal panel veri yaklaşımı benimsenmiş ve Mekânsal Otoregresif (SAR) model tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, ekonomik büyüme ve beşerî sermayenin iç göç üzerinde anlamlı ve pozitif etkiler yarattığını göstermektedir. Ekonomik faaliyet düzeyi yüksek ve üniversite mezunu nüfusun yoğunlaştığı iller, göç açısından daha güçlü çekim merkezleri haline gelmektedir. Kamu yatırımlarının göç üzerindeki etkisi ise pozitif olmakla birlikte görece sınırlı düzeydedir. Buna karşılık teknolojik gelişmişlik göstergelerinin göç akımları üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisi tespit edilememiştir. Ayrıca mekânsal otoregresif katsayının pozitif ve anlamlı olması, iller arasındaki göç hareketlerinin mekânsal bağımlılık içerdiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Genel olarak bulgular, Türkiye’de iç göçün bölgesel ekonomik farklılıklar ve mekânsal etkileşimlerle yakından ilişkili olduğunu göstermektedir.

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Cite This Article

Çinar, S., Has, B., *, S. Ç. (2026). Determinants of Internal Migration in Türkiye: Evidence from a Spatial Panel SAR Model. Politik Ekonomik Kuram, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2, 498–517. https://doi.org/10.30586/pek.1789084

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