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Journals / Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 20 Sayı: ICMEB'24 Özel Sayı Özel Sayı

ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS OF INFLATION UNCERTAINTY ON INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY

ENFLASYON BELİRSİZLİĞİNİN ENFLASYON VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ASİMETRİK ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Aycan Can0000-0002-4703-4510
Asuman Koç Yurtkur(ZONGULDAK BÜLENT ECEVİT ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0001-8366-4280
Pages
308–320
Publication Date
2024-10-30
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Therefore, this result also supports Black's hypothesis in the literature that inflation uncertainty has a positive effect on economic growth.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:In this study aims to contribute to the literature by investigating the impact of inflation and inflation uncertainty on growth in Turkey.
📊
Key Findings & Data:The data set used is monthly frequency and covers the period between 2005:4 and 2019:1 and VARMA-MGARCH-BEKK model is used in the analysis.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:Therefore, this result also supports Black's hypothesis in the literature that inflation uncertainty has a positive effect on economic growth.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2005 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Enflasyon Belirsizliği · Enflasyon · Ekonomik Büyüme

Abstract

In this study aims to contribute to the literature by investigating the impact of inflation and inflation uncertainty on growth in Turkey. For this purpose, the study uses Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to represent inflation and Industrial Production Index (IPI) data to represent economic growth. The data set used is monthly frequency and covers the period between 2005:4 and 2019:1 and VARMA-MGARCH-BEKK model is used in the analysis. In the light of the results of the analysis, it is determined that inflation uncertainty leads to higher inflation in the Turkish economy and the Cukierman-Melzer hypothesis in the literature is also supported. In addition, the results on the effect of inflation uncertainty on economic growth show that it is positive and statistically significant at the 1% level in Turkey. Therefore, this result also supports Black's hypothesis in the literature that inflation uncertainty has a positive effect on economic growth.

Özet

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de enflasyon ve enflasyon belirsizliğinin büyüme üzerindeki etkisini araştırarak literatüre katkı sağlamayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaçla çalışmada enflasyonu temsil etmek için Tüketici Fiyatları Endeksi (TÜFE) verileri, ekonomik büyümeyi temsil etmek için ise Sanayi Üretim Endeksi (SÜE) verileri kullanılmıştır. Kullanılan veri seti aylık frekansta olup 2005:4 ile 2019:1 dönem aralığını kapsayarak analizde VARMA-MGARCH-BEKK modeli kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçları ışığında enflasyon belirsizliğinin Türkiye ekonomisinde daha yüksek enflasyona yol açtığı tespit edilerek literatürde yer alan Cukierman-Melzer hipotezi de desteklenmektedir. Ayrıca enflasyon belirsizliğinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisine ilişkin sonuçlara bakıldığında ise bu durumun Türkiye'de pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak %1 düzeyinde anlamlı olduğunu görülmektedir. Dolayısıyla bu sonuç aynı zamanda literatürde yer alan Black'in enflasyon belirsizliğinin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde pozitif etkiye sahip olduğu hipotezini de desteklemektedir.

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Cite This Article

Can, A., Yurtkur, A. K. (2024). ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS OF INFLATION UNCERTAINTY ON INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, Cilt: 20 Sayı: ICMEB'24 Özel Sayı Özel Sayı, 308–320. https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.1497310

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