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Journals / Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi / 2025 / Cilt: 21 Sayı: 4

OVERVALUATION DYNAMICS IN TURKEY'S HOUSING MARKET: SPECULATIVE BEHAVIORS AND ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS

TÜRKİYE KONUT PİYASASININ AŞIRI DEĞERLEME DİNAMİKLERİ: SPEKÜLATİF DAVRANIŞLAR VE EKONOMİK TEMELLER

Özgün Aksoy(KARADENİZ TEKNİK ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-5776-5608
Rahmi Yamak(KARADENİZ TEKNİK ÜNİVERSİTESİ, SOSYAL BİLİMLER ENSTİTÜSÜ)0000-0002-2604-1797
Pages
1691–1716
Publication Date
2025-12-25
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The relationships between detected price bubbles and macroeconomic factors reveal particularly prominent negative effects from long-term interest rates and positive effects from inflation and inflation expectations.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

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Objective & Hypothesis:Anomalies in asset pricing have long held significant importance in academic and political economy debates.
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Key Findings & Data:This research detects housing market bubble formations in Turkey's national aggregate, Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir provinces between 2010:Q1-2024:Q2 using Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) tests.
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Conclusion & Impact:The relationships between detected price bubbles and macroeconomic factors reveal particularly prominent negative effects from long-term interest rates and positive effects from inflation and inflation expectations.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:2010 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Konut Fiyat Balonları · Konut Fiyat Endeksi · Fiyat Anomalileri

Abstract

Anomalies in asset pricing have long held significant importance in academic and political economy debates. Among these market misperceptions, asset price bubbles carry particular weight due to their emergence patterns and associations with global financial instabilities. This research detects housing market bubble formations in Turkey's national aggregate, Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir provinces between 2010:Q1-2024:Q2 using Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) tests. To develop a realistic perspective for bubble detection, housing price indices and unit prices were deflated through the producer price index and normalized against income and rental income variables. Fundamental economic and speculative factors driving bubble formations were analyzed through probit regressions. While bubble periods show variation depending on housing price indicators and occasionally provincial levels, two significant price bubbles were generally identified: 2014-2017 and 2021-2023. The relationships between detected price bubbles and macroeconomic factors reveal particularly prominent negative effects from long-term interest rates and positive effects from inflation and inflation expectations.

Özet

Varlık fiyatlarının değerlemesinde ortaya çıkan anomaliler akademik ve ekonomi politik tartışmalarında uzun süredir önemli bir yer tutmaktadır. Söz konusu piyasa yanılgıları içerisinde varlık fiyat balonları ortaya çıkma kalıpları ve küresel düzeyde finansal istikrarsızlıklar ile ilişkileri bakımından ayrı bir önem taşımaktadır. Bu araştırmada 2010:Q1-2024:Q2 dönemi Türkiye geneli, İstanbul, Ankara ve İzmir illerinde konut piyasasındaki balon oluşumları Genelleştirilmiş ADF (GSADF) testleri ile tespit edilmiştir. Konut fiyat balonlarının tespiti amacıyla gerçekçi bir bakış açısı geliştirebilmek amacıyla konut fiyat endeksleri ve konut birim fiyatları üretici fiyat endeksi ile reel hale getirilmiş ve gelir ve kira geliri değişkenlerine oranlanmıştır. Balon oluşumlarına neden olan temel ekonomik ve spekülatif faktörler ise probit regresyonlar yardımıyla incelenmiştir. Balon dönemleri modellerde kullanılan konut fiyat göstergelerine ve nadiren de olsa il düzeyine göre değişmekle beraber genel olarak 2014-2017 ve 2021-2023 dönemlerinde 2 adet önemli fiyat balonu tespit edilmiştir. Tespit edilen fiyat balonları ile makro ekonomik faktörler arası ilişkilerde ise özellikle uzun dönem faiz oranlarının negatif etkileri ile enflasyon ve enflasyon beklentisinin pozitif etkileri öne çıkmaktadır.

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Cite This Article

Aksoy, Ö., Yamak, R. (2025). OVERVALUATION DYNAMICS IN TURKEY'S HOUSING MARKET: SPECULATIVE BEHAVIORS AND ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, Cilt: 21 Sayı: 4, 1691–1716. https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.1651041

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