Journals / Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 22 Sayı: 3

THE LIMITS OF VOLUNTARY RETURN: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SYRIAN REFUGEES’ RETURN DECISIONS FROM A POLITICAL ECONOMY PERSPECTIVE

GÖNÜLLÜ GERİ DÖNÜŞÜN SINIRLARI: SURİYELİ MÜLTECİLERİN GERİ DÖNÜŞ KARARLARININ SİYASAL EKONOMİ PERSPEKTİFİYLE KARŞILAŞTIRMALI ANALİZİ

Erdi Topçuoğlu(BARTIN ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-3596-3611
Pages
1352–1372
Publication Date
2026-09-30
🏛️Bibliographic metadata and full text access for this article are provided via DergiPark.
DergiPark Record ↗
✨

AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Return is therefore understood not simply through a voluntary-forced binary, but as a conditional and multi-layered decision process shaped by different protection conditions.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This study comparatively examines Syrian refugees’ return decisions across Türkiye, the Middle East (Lebanon and Iraq), and Europe (the Netherlands and Germany), and discusses the adequacy of “voluntary return” as an explanatory concept.
📊
Key Findings & Data:It draws on a comparative and interpretive synthesis of the existing academic literature and selected institutional reports.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:Return is therefore understood not simply through a voluntary-forced binary, but as a conditional and multi-layered decision process shaped by different protection conditions.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:Comprehensive Sample
⚙️Variables:Suriyeli mülteciler · gönüllü geri dönüş · koşullandırılmış tercih

Abstract

This study comparatively examines Syrian refugees’ return decisions across Türkiye, the Middle East (Lebanon and Iraq), and Europe (the Netherlands and Germany), and discusses the adequacy of “voluntary return” as an explanatory concept. It draws on a comparative and interpretive synthesis of the existing academic literature and selected institutional reports. The findings show that return decisions can be explained neither solely by conditions in Syria nor solely by pressures in host countries. Rather, these decisions emerge within a constrained field shaped by legal insecurity, economic precarity, social exclusion, waiting capacity, and persistent security, service, and livelihood problems in Syria. The study also highlights the political economy dimension of return decisions.In host countries, Syrian refugees are often perceived as an economic burden amid scarce resources, rising living costs, and demands for return, despite their frequent concentration in low-paid and precarious employment. Finally, the study distinguishes between hope of return, return intention, actual return, and sustainable reintegration. Return is therefore understood not simply through a voluntary-forced binary, but as a conditional and multi-layered decision process shaped by different protection conditions.

Özet

Bu çalışma, Suriyeli mültecilerin geri dönüş kararlarını Türkiye, Orta Doğu (Lübnan ve Irak) ve Avrupa (Hollanda ve Almanya) bağlamlarında karşılaştırmalı olarak incelemekte ve “gönüllü geri dönüş” kavramının bu kararları açıklamadaki yeterliliğini tartışmaktadır. Çalışma, mevcut akademik literatür ile seçili kurumsal raporların karşılaştırmalı ve yorumlayıcı sentezine dayanmaktadır. Bulgular, geri dönüş kararlarının ne yalnızca Suriye’deki koşullarla ne de yalnızca ev sahibi ülkelerdeki baskılarla açıklanabileceğini göstermektedir. Aksine bu kararlar, hukuki güvencesizlik, ekonomik kırılganlık, toplumsal dışlanma bekleme kapasitesi ve Suriye içindeki güvenlik, hizmetler ve geçim sorunlarının birlikte şekillendirdiği daralmış bir alan içinde ortaya çıkmaktadır. Çalışma ayrıca geri dönüş kararlarının siyasal ekonomi boyutuna da dikkat çekmektedir. Ev sahibi ülkelerde Suriyeli mülteciler, kıt kaynakların paylaşımı, artan hayat pahalılığı ve geri dönüş talepleri bağlamında çoğu zaman ekonomik yük olarak algılanmakta; buna karşılık genellikle fiilen düşük ücretli ve güvencesiz işlerde çalışıyor olmaları bu algının ekonomik gerçeklikle her zaman örtüşmediğini göstermektedir. Ayrıca geri dönüş umudu, geri dönme gayesi, fiili dönüş ve kalıcı yeniden yerleşim arasında açık bir ayrım olduğu görülmektedir. Bu nedenle geri dönüş, yalnızca gönüllü-zorunlu ikiliğiyle değil, farklı koruma koşullarının şekillendirdiği çok katmanlı bir karar süreci olarak ele alınmaktadır.

🔖

Cite This Article

Topçuoğlu, E. (2026). THE LIMITS OF VOLUNTARY RETURN: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SYRIAN REFUGEES’ RETURN DECISIONS FROM A POLITICAL ECONOMY PERSPECTIVE. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, Cilt: 22 Sayı: 3, 1352–1372. https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.1936527

📄 Full Text PDF Viewer

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

References (50)

  1. 3RP. (2025). Annual report 2024: Regional Refugee & Resilience Plan. https://www.3rpsyriacrisis.org/portfolio/2024/
  2. Ajzen, I. (1991). The theory of planned behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 50(2), 179–211. https://doi.org/10.1016/0749-5978(91)90020-T
  3. Al Husein, N., & Wagner, N. (2023). Determinants of intended return migration among refugees: A comparison of Syrian refugees in Germany and Turkey. International Migration Review, 57(4), 1771–1805. https://doi.org/10.1177/01979183221142780
  4. Ali, N., & Al Ganideh, S. F. (2020). Syrian refugees in Jordan: Burden or boon. Research in World Economy, 11(1), 180–194. https://doi.org/10.5430/rwe.v11n1p180
  5. Alrababah, A., Masterson, D., Casalis, M., Hangartner, D., & Weinstein, J. (2023). The dynamics of refugee return: Syrian refugees and their migration intentions. British Journal of Political Science, 53(4), 1108–1131. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123422000667
  6. Beaujouan, J., & Rasheed, A. (2020). An overview of the Syrian refugee crisis in Lebanon and its socio-economic impact. In J. Beaujouan & A. Rasheed (Eds.), Syrian crisis, Syrian refugees: Voices from Jordan and Lebanon (pp. 35–46). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-35016-1_4
  7. Bewick, R. (2022). Dignity in repatriation: What does it mean for UNHCR? (RLI Working Paper No. 63). Refugee Law Initiative, School of Advanced Study, University of London. https://rli.sas.ac.uk/resources/rli-working-papers
  8. Black, R., & Gent, S. (2006). Sustainable return in post-conflict contexts. International Migration, 44(3), 15–38. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2435.2006.00370.x
  9. Carling, J., & Schewel, K. (2018). Revisiting aspiration and ability in international migration. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 44(6), 945–963. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2017.1384146
  10. Chimni, B. S. (1993). The meaning of words and the role of UNHCR in voluntary repatriation. International Journal of Refugee Law, 5(3), 442–460. https://doi.org/10.1093/ijrl/5.3.442
  11. Chimni, B. S. (2004). From resettlement to involuntary repatriation: Towards a critical history of durable solutions to refugee problems. Refugee Survey Quarterly, 23(3), 55–73. https://doi.org/10.1093/rsq/23.3.55
  12. Crisp, J., & Long, K. (2016). Safe and voluntary refugee repatriation: From principle to practice. Journal on Migration and Human Security, 4(3), 141–147. https://doi.org/10.1177/233150241600400305
  13. Darling, J. (2016). Privatising asylum: Neoliberalisation, depoliticisation and the governance of forced migration. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 41(3), 230–243. https://doi.org/10.1111/tran.12118
  14. De Genova, N. P. (2002). Migrant “illegality” and deportability in everyday life. Annual Review of Anthropology, 31(1), 419–447. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.anthro.31.040402.085432
  15. De Haas, H. (2021). A theory of migration: The aspirations-capabilities framework. Comparative Migration Studies, 9(1), 8. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40878-020-00210-4
  16. Dikkaya, M., & Dinçer, S. (2023). Türkiye iş gücü piyasasında Suriyeli sığınmacılar. Aksaray Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 15(2), 187–198. https://doi.org/10.52791/aksarayiibd.1261970
  17. EC. (2025). Migration, mobility and the EU labour market. European Commission. https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/migration-mobility-and-eu-labour-market_en.
  18. EUAA. (2025). Syria: Country focus. European Union Agency for Asylum. https://www.euaa.europa.eu/coi/syria/2025/country-focus/coi-report-syria-country-focus
  19. Goldring, L., & Landolt, P. (2013). The conditionality of legal status and rights: Conceptualizing precarious non-citizenship in Canada. In L. Goldring & P. Landolt (Eds.), Producing and negotiating non-citizenship: Precarious legal status in Canada (pp. 3–28). University of Toronto Press. https://doi.org/10.3138/9781442663862-005
  20. Hammer, L., Kassam, K., Kosyakova, Y., Gallegos Torres, K., Olbrich, L., Koch, T., & Wagner, S. (2025). The downfall of Assad: Syrian refugees’ settlement intentions after the unexpected regime change (IAB-Discussion Paper 09/2025). Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung. https://doi.org/10.48720/IAB.DP.2509
  21. Hartmann, J. (2025). Refugees want to stay in Germany long term and become German citizens. DIW Weekly Report, 15(37), 235–241. https://doi.org/10.18723/diw_dwr:2025-37-1
  22. Ibrahim, B., Wind, B., & Maier, K. (2022). Future urban development scenarios for post-conflict Syria. How will returning refugees shape the future? Habitat International, 119, 102499. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2021.102499
  23. İçduygu, A., & Nimer, M. (2020). The politics of return: Exploring the future of Syrian refugees in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey. Third World Quarterly, 41(3), 415–433. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2019.1675503
  24. Ilcan, S., Rygiel, K., & Baban, F. (2018). The ambiguous architecture of precarity: Temporary protection, everyday living and migrant journeys of Syrian refugees. International Journal of Migration and Border Studies, 4(1/2), 51–70. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJMBS.2018.091226
  25. ILO. (2021). Assessing informality and vulnerability among disadvantaged groups in Lebanon: A survey of Lebanese, and Syrian and Palestinian refugees. International Labour Organization. https://www.ilo.org/publications/assessing-informality-and-vulnerability-among-disadvantaged-groups-lebanon
  26. IOM. (2025). Reconsidering ‘home’: Aspirations and intentions of Syrians in the Netherlands in the context of Syrian political transition. International Organization for Migration. https://dtm.iom.int/netherlands
  27. Janmyr, M., & Mourad, L. (2018). Modes of ordering: Labelling, classification and categorization in Lebanon’s refugee response. Journal of Refugee Studies, 31(4), 544–565. https://doi.org/10.1093/jrs/fex042
  28. Kayaoglu, A., Şahin-Mencütek, Z., & Erdoğan, M. M. (2022). Return aspirations of Syrian refugees in Turkey. Journal of Immigrant & Refugee Studies, 20(4), 561–583. https://doi.org/10.1080/15562948.2021.1955172
  29. Kikano, F., Fauveaud, G., & Lizarralde, G. (2021). Policies of exclusion: The case of Syrian refugees in Lebanon. Journal of Refugee Studies, 34(1), 422–452. https://doi.org/10.1093/jrs/feaa058
  30. Kocadaş, B. (2018). Suriyeli sığınmacılar ve çalışma hayatı: Sorunlar, tespitler ve öneriler. Sosyolojik Düşün, 3(1–2), 1–13. https://izlik.org/JA96UY94TG
  31. Leerkes, A., Van Os, R., & Boersema, E. (2017). What drives ‘soft deportation’? Understanding the rise in assisted voluntary return among rejected asylum seekers in the Netherlands. Population, Space and Place, 23(8), e2059. https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.2059
  32. Menjívar, C. (2006). Liminal legality: Salvadoran and Guatemalan immigrants’ lives in the United States. American Journal of Sociology, 111(4), 999–1037. https://doi.org/10.1086/499509
  33. Müller-Funk, L., & Fransen, S. (2020). Return aspirations and coerced return: A case study on Syrian refugees in Turkey and Lebanon (IMI Working Paper No. 162). International Migration Institute. https://www.migrationinstitute.org/publications/return-aspirations-and-coerced-return-a-case-study-on-syrian-refugees-in-turkey-and-lebanon
  34. Mülteciler Derneği. (2025). Suriye’ye gönüllü geri dönüşler. https://multeciler.org.tr/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/suriyeye-gonullu-geri-donus-raporu-tr-1.pdf
  35. Mülteciler Derneği. (2026). Voluntary returns to Syria: Second monitoring report - Hard to stay, uncertain to return: A migration dilemma. https://multeciler.org.tr/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/VOLUNTARY-RETURNS-TO-SYRIA-SECOND-MONITORING-REPORT-HARD-TO-STAY-UNCERTAIN-TO-RETURN-A-MIGRATION-DILEMMA.pdf
  36. OECD. (2024). International migration outlook 2024. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/50b0353e-en Parsons, R. (2016). Refugees: Economic burden or opportunity? E-International Relations. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/297324238_Refugees_Economic_Burden_or_Opportunity
  37. Raeburn-Gibson, T. (2022). Supporting self-recovery in post-conflict situations: A case study of Syria. Journal of International Humanitarian Action, 7(1), 15. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41018-022-00125-y
  38. Sleiman, H. (2026). Voluntary under duress: Refugee return, governance assemblages, and the production of consent in Lebanon. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2026.2623950
  39. Takahashi, S. (1997). The UNHCR handbook on voluntary repatriation: The emphasis of return over protection. International Journal of Refugee Law, 9(4), 593–612. https://doi.org/10.1093/ijrl/9.4.593
  40. Topçuoğlu, E. (2025). Sivil toplum ve mülteci savunuculuğunun siyaseti: İnsani yardım ile direniş arasında. İçinde M. Şevik, H. Seki Öz & M. Belouadah (Ed.), 2. Uluslararası İyonya Bilimsel Araştırmalar Kongresi (ss. 334–343). İKSAD Yayınları.
  41. Um, K. (2023). Refugee return, reintegration, and sustainable futurity: Politics, pitfalls and possibilities of repatriation in post/conflict situations. Geopolitics, 28(3), 1130–1160. https://doi.org/10.1080/14650045.2023.2170787
  42. UNHCR. (1996). Handbook on voluntary repatriation: International protection. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. https://www.refworld.org/policy/opguidance/unhcr/1996/19472
  43. UNHCR. (2024). Ninth regional survey on Syrian refugees’ perceptions and intentions on return to Syria. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. https://www.unhcr.org/media/ninth-regional-survey-syrian-refugees-perceptions-intentions-return-syria
  44. UNHCR. (2025a). 2025 vulnerability assessment of Syrian refugees (VASyR): Executive summary. https://ialebanon.unhcr.org/vasyr/files/vasyr_reports/vasyr-2025-executive-summary.pdf
  45. UNHCR. (2025b). Flash regional survey on Syrian refugees’ perceptions and intentions on return to Syria. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/details/114221
  46. UNHCR. (2025c). Syrian refugees in Iraq intention to return. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/details/119792 Vedsted-Hansen, J. (1997). An analysis of the requirement for voluntary repatriation. International Journal of Refugee Law, 9(4), 559–565. https://doi.org/10.1093/ijrl/9.4.559
  47. Wagner, M., & Del Carpio, X. V. (2015). The impact of Syrians refugees on the Turkish labor market (Policy Research Working Paper No. 7402). World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-7402
  48. World Bank. (2025). The Syrian conflict: Physical damage and reconstruction assessment (2011–2024). https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099102025095540101
  49. Yazıcı Başar, E. (2024). How safe is the zone, and how voluntarily are the returnees? Turkey’s project for a ‘safe and dignified’ voluntary repatriation of Syrian refugees and the potential implementation of R2P on behalf of returnees. The International Journal of Human Rights, 28(6), 936–968. https://doi.org/10.1080/13642987.2024.2334789
  50. Zetter, R. (2021). Refugees and their return home: Unsettling matters. Journal of Refugee Studies, 34(1), 7–22. https://doi.org/10.1093/jrs/feab005