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Journals / Sosyoekonomi / 2026 / Cilt: 32 Sayı: 61

Time-Varying Role of House Prices on Monetary Policy in Türkiye

Türkiye’de Konut Fiyatlarının Para Politikası Üzerindeki Zamanla Değişen Rolü

Savaş Gayaker(Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli Üniversitesi)0000-0002-7186-1532
Ahmet Güney(ANKARA HACI BAYRAM VELİ ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-9411-0483
Pages
21–36
Publication Date
2024-07-30
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The results reveal that the responses of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) to the changes in the housing market have changed over time.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:The main focus of this study is examining the time-varying effects of house prices on monetary policy in Türkiye from February 2010 to November 2021.
📊
Key Findings & Data:The evidence indicates that responses of inflation to positive house price shocks decrease over time.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:The results reveal that the responses of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) to the changes in the housing market have changed over time.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2010 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Konut Fiyatı · TVP VAR-SV · Para Politikası

Abstract

The main focus of this study is examining the time-varying effects of house prices on monetary policy in Türkiye from February 2010 to November 2021. We analyse these effects using a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility (TVP VAR-SV). The evidence indicates that responses of inflation to positive house price shocks decrease over time. The response of credit and interest rates to positive house price shocks increases after 2018. The results reveal that the responses of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) to the changes in the housing market have changed over time.

Özet

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Şubat 2010’dan Kasım 2021’e kadar Türkiye'de konut fiyatlarının para politikası üzerindeki zamanla değişen etkilerini incelemektir. Bu etkiler stokastik oynaklığa sahip zamanla değişen parametreli vektör otoregresif model (TVP VAR-SV) kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, enflasyonun pozitif konut fiyatı şoklarına verdiği tepkilerin zaman içinde azaldığını göstermektedir. Kredi ve faiz oranının pozitif konut fiyatı şoklarına tepkisi 2018’den sonra artmaktadır. Sonuçlar, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasının (TCMB) konut piyasasındaki değişimlere verdiği tepkilerin zaman içinde değiştiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

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Cite This Article

Gayaker, S., Güney, A. (2024). Time-Varying Role of House Prices on Monetary Policy in Türkiye. Sosyoekonomi, Cilt: 32 Sayı: 61, 21–36. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.03.02

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