SavedAdd your journal

Journals / Journal of Islamicjerusalem Studies / 2026 / Cilt: 26 Sayı: 1

From Strategic Shock to Geopolitical Realignment: The Regional and International Implications of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood

Stratejik Şoktan Jeopolitik Yeniden Hizalanmaya: Aksâ Tufanı Operasyonu’nun Bölgesel ve Uluslararası Etkileri

Rabah Zaoui(Akli Mohand Oulhadj Bouira)0009-0000-1744-2292
Hocine Bousalah(Akli Muhand Oulhadj University- Bouira)0009-0009-1043-4340
Pages
31–54
Publication Date
2026-06-30
🏛️Bibliographic metadata and full text access for this article are provided via DergiPark.
DergiPark Record ↗
✨

AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The findings indicate that Operation Al-Aqsa Flood generated significant geopolitical consequences extending beyond the military dimension.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This study examines the geopolitical repercussions of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood (7 October 2023) and its impact on regional power dynamics, Israeli deterrence, and the international positioning of the Palestinian question.
📊
Key Findings & Data:The findings indicate that Operation Al-Aqsa Flood generated significant geopolitical consequences extending beyond the military dimension.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:However, the extent to which these developments may produce sustainable political gains for the Palestinian cause depends on the effectiveness of regional diplomatic, legal, and media strategies.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:2023 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Aksâ Tufanı · Jeopolitik · İsrail Caydırıcılığı

Abstract

This study examines the geopolitical repercussions of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood (7 October 2023) and its impact on regional power dynamics, Israeli deterrence, and the international positioning of the Palestinian question. The research investigates how the operation reshaped diplomatic alignments, influenced Arab-Israeli normalisation trajectories, and contributed to shifts in international legal and political discourse regarding Palestine. Using a descriptive-analytical approach supported by document analysis and comparative geopolitical assessment, the study analyses developments related to international recognition of Palestine, proceedings before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the International Criminal Court (ICC), transformations in regional alliances, and the evolving perception of Israeli security capabilities following the operation. The findings indicate that Operation Al-Aqsa Flood generated significant geopolitical consequences extending beyond the military dimension. These include increasing international pressure on Israel, the relative erosion of Israeli deterrence, renewed global attention to the Palestinian issue, and a slowdown in normalisation initiatives between the Zionist state and several Arab states. The study also highlights the growing role of non-Western actors and emerging geopolitical blocs in reshaping Middle Eastern power configurations. The research concludes that the operation represents a strategic turning point with long-term geopolitical implications. However, the extent to which these developments may produce sustainable political gains for the Palestinian cause depends on the effectiveness of regional diplomatic, legal, and media strategies.

Özet

Bu çalışma, Aksâ Tufanı Operasyonu’nun (7 Ekim 2023) jeopolitik yansımalarını ve bu operasyonun bölgesel güç dinamikleri, İsrail caydırıcılığı ve Filistin meselesinin uluslararası konumlanışı üzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. Araştırma, operasyonun diplomatik ittifakları nasıl yeniden şekillendirdiğini, Arap-İsrail normalleşme süreçlerini nasıl etkilediğini ve Filistin’e ilişkin uluslararası hukuki ve siyasi söylemdeki değişimlere nasıl katkı sağladığını incelemektedir. Belge analizi ve karşılaştırmalı jeopolitik değerlendirme ile desteklenen betimsel analitik bir yaklaşım kullanılarak, çalışma, Filistin’in uluslararası tanınmasına ilişkin gelişmeleri, Uluslararası Adalet Divanı ve Uluslararası Ceza Mahkemesi nezdindeki süreçleri, bölgesel ittifaklardaki dönüşümleri ve operasyon sonrasında İsrail’in güvenlik kapasitesine yönelik algıdaki değişimi analiz etmektedir. Bulgular, Aksâ Tufanı Operasyonu’nun askerî boyutun ötesine uzanan önemli jeopolitik sonuçlar doğurduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar arasında İsrail üzerindeki uluslararası baskının artması, İsrail caydırıcılığının görece zayıflaması, Filistin meselesine yönelik küresel ilginin yeniden canlanması ve Siyonist devlet ile çeşitli Arap devletleri arasındaki normalleşme girişimlerinde yavaşlama yer almaktadır. Çalışma ayrıca Batı dışı aktörlerin ve yükselen jeopolitik blokların “Ortadoğu” güç dengelerini yeniden şekillendirmedeki artan rolünü vurgulamaktadır. Araştırma, operasyonun uzun vadeli jeopolitik etkileri olan stratejik bir dönüm noktasını temsil ettiği sonucuna varmaktadır. Bununla birlikte, bu gelişmelerin Filistin davası için sürdürülebilir siyasi kazanımlar üretip üretemeyeceği, bölgesel diplomatik, hukuki ve medya stratejilerinin etkinliğine bağlıdır.

🔖

Cite This Article

Zaoui, R., Bousalah, H., *, R. Z. (2026). From Strategic Shock to Geopolitical Realignment: The Regional and International Implications of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood. Journal of Islamicjerusalem Studies, Cilt: 26 Sayı: 1, 31–54. https://doi.org/10.31456/beytulmakdis.1957222

📄 Full Text PDF Viewer

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

References (37)

  1. Abdul Azeez, I.A., & Ali, M.B.T. (2025). Diplomatic immunity and Human Rights: A Critical Analysis. International Journal of Applied and Advanced Multidisciplinary Research (IJAAMR), 3(2), 71–80.
  2. Akgül-Açıkmeşe, S., & Özel, S. (2024). EU Policy towards the Israel-Palestine Conflict: The Limitations of Mitigation Strategies. The International Spectator, 59(1), 59–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/03932729.2024.2309664
  3. Anouti, H., & Fleming, A. L. (2026). Al-Aqsa Flood: Misstep or Grand Strategy? The Geopolitics of Non-state Actors in a Globally Unstable Paradigm. Contemporary Review of the Middle East, 13(2), 261-290. https://doi.org/10.1177/23477989251405562
  4. Arad, S. (2025). Israel's national security concept: Functional incoherence and the October 7 disaster. Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). www.inss.org.il/strategic_assessment/perception
  5. Arce, D., & Sandler, T. (2009). Deterrence: Credibility and proportionality. Economics & Politics, 21(3), 384–408. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0343.2009.00352.x
  6. Baram, G., & Ben Israel, I. (2025). Redefining vigilance: reevaluating the meaning of early warning in Israel’s security doctrine and the October 7 attack. Intelligence and National Security, 40(3), 470–485. https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2025.2466267
  7. Berg, R. (2024, April 24). Former head of ICJ explains ruling on genocide case against Israel brought by South Africa? BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68906919
  8. Boxerman, A., Bubola, E., & Levenson, M. (2024, May 22). Spain, Norway and Ireland recognize Palestinian state, further isolating Israel. The New York Times. www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/world/middleeast/spain-norway-ireland-palestinian-statehood-israel.html
  9. Chipkin, I. (2025). From revolution to anti-imperialism: Does South Africa’s ICJ case against Israel help resolve the organic crisis within the ANC? South African Journal of International Affairs, 32(4), 531–551. https://doi.org/10.1080/10220461.2025.2587021
  10. El-Awaisi, K., & Yavuz, C. (2020). The Future of Al-Aqsa Mosque in the Light of Trump’s Deal of the Century. Insight Turkey, 22(3), 215-236.
  11. Elbahtimy, H. (2022). Ballistic and cruise missiles in the Middle East: the current landscape and options for arms control. London: The International Institute for Strategic Studies.
  12. Fabian, E. (2025, February 27). IDF’s Oct. 7 probes show it misread Hamas for years, left southern Israel utterly vulnerable. The Times of Israel. www.timesofisrael.com/idfs-oct-7-probes-show-it-misread-hamas-for-years-left-southern-israel-utterly-vulnerable
  13. Furia, P.A. & Lucas, R.E. (2006). Determinants of Arab Public Opinion on Foreign Relations, International Studies Quarterly, 50(3), 585–605, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2006.00415.x
  14. Gannon, J. A., Gartzke, E., Lindsay, J. R., & Schram, P. (2024). The Shadow of Deterrence: Why Capable Actors Engage in Contests Short of War. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 68(2–3), 230–268. https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231166345
  15. Ghuloom, M. (2025). Between Arab Solidarity and the Abraham Accords: Bahrain at the UNSC. Observer Research Foundation. www.orfonline.org/research/between-arab-solidarity-and-the-abraham-accords-bahrain-at-the-unsc
  16. Hallward, M. C., & Biygautane, T. (2024). Arab State Narratives on Normalization with Israel: Justifying Policy Reversal. Contemporary Review of the Middle East, 11(1), 23-49. https://doi.org/10.1177/23477989231220444
  17. International Court of Justice (ICJ). (2024). Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in the Gaza Strip (South Africa v. Israel): Provisional measures. www.icj-cij.org/case/192
  18. Isakov, N.F., Levi-Shahar, M., Balmakov, Y., Yunis R.M., Endevelt, R. & Magnazi, M. B. (2025). Detrimental Changes in Individual Health-Promoting Behaviors Among Internally Displaced Israelis. International Journal of Public Health, 70 (1607794). https://doi.org/10.3389/ijph.2025.1607794
  19. Kassir, K. (2023). The Phrases “Unity of Fields [of Battle]”, “Unity of Fronts” or “Axis of Resistance”: Between Slogan and Reality. Policy Paper, Issue: 001. Institute for Palestine Studies. www.palestine-studies.org/en/node/1654679
  20. Kyris, G. (2025). The Recognition of a Right to Statehood and Palestine. Ethnopolitics, 24(5), 511–521. https://doi.org/10.1080/17449057.2024.2362510
  21. Kurt, M. (2025). Review: Al-Aqsa Flood as a Turning Point: Historical Roots, Israel’s Response, and the Colonial Question. Insight Turkey, 27 (3), 315–326. https://doi.org/10.25253/99.2025273.17
  22. Landale, J. (2024, May 28). Spain, Norway and Ireland recognise Palestinian state. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cl77drw22qjo
  23. Levite, A. E. (2024, February 21). Israeli security after October 7. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/02/israeli-security-after-october-7
  24. Lichtenheld, A. (2026). Armed Conflict and Internal Displacement. In. D.Cantor et al. (Ed.), The Oxford Handbook of Internal Displacement, (pp. 83–96). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  25. Lupovici, A. (2024). Israeli Deterrence and the October 7 Attack. Strategic Assessment, 27(1), 60–80. www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Amir-Lupovici.pdf
  26. Madani, L. (2024). Reassessing Peace: The Implications of the Abraham Accords for Conflict Resolution in the Gulf Region. Asian Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, 18(3), 260–281. https://doi.org/10.1080/25765949.2024.2416845
  27. Mengüaslan, H. (2025). Aksa Tufanı Sonrası Filistin Meselesi: Küresel Üstünlük Mücadelesinin Yansımaları [The Palestinian Question in the aftermath of the ‘al-Aqsa Flood’: The Implications of the Struggle for Global Supremacy]. İletişim ve Diplomasi, Filistin Özel Sayısı, 39-58. https://doi.org/10.54722/iletisimvediplomasi.1631725
  28. Mercan, M. (2023). Operation al-Aqsa Flood: A Rupture in the History of the Palestinian Resistance and Its Implications. Insight Turkey, 25(4), 79–90. https://doi.org/10.25253/99.2023254.6
  29. Samuel, M. T. (2023). The Israel-Hamas War: Historical Context and International Law. Middle East Policy, 30:3–9. https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12723
  30. Stefănoaia, M. (2025). The Challenges of International Justice Amid Geopolitical Realities. Proceedings of the International Conference on Future of Social Sciences and Humanities, 3 (1), 1–9.
  31. Syarifa, N., & Prabandari, A. (2025). Palestine’s Struggle for Statehood in the Pursuit of International Recognition. International Journal of Social Science Research and Review, 8(4), 65-72. https://doi.org/10.47814/ijssrr.v8i4.2608
  32. The Guardian. (2025, September 22). Israeli politicians react bitterly to international recognitions of Palestinian state.
  33. Valbjørn, M., Bank, A., & Darwich, M. (2024). Forward to the past? Regional repercussions of the Gaza war. Middle East Policy, 31(3), 3-17.
  34. van Steenberghe, R. (2024). The armed conflict in Gaza, and its complexity under international law: Jus ad bellum, jus in bello, and international justice. Leiden Journal of International Law, 37(4), 983–1017. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0922156524000220
  35. Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of International Politics. New York: McGraw-Hill.
  36. Waltz, K. N. (2007). Theory of International Politics (pp. 167–212). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. (Original work published 1979).
  37. Yetim, M., & Kaşıkcı, T. (2025). Revisiting normalization dynamics between the Gulf Cooperation Council and Israel from ‘other’ to ‘regional partner’? Middle Eastern Studies, 61(3), 329–342. https://doi.org/10.1080/00263206.2025.2455384