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Journals / Folklor/Edebiyat / 2024 / Cilt: 30 Sayı: 120 Ek

Analysing Post-earthquake Crime through Statistical Data: Findings from the Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes

İstatistiksel Verilerle Deprem Sonrası Suçların Analizi: Kahramanmaraş Depremlerinden Elde Edilen Bulgular

Ayşe Mahinur Tezcan(İSTANBUL ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-9202-5648
A. Veronika İnan0000-0003-2740-6775
Pages
1369–1388
Publication Date
2024-12-15
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The results indicate that the decrease in crime rates during a postearthquake period can be attributed to the therapeutic community effect, while the subsequent rise in crime rates aligns with routine activity theory as a delayed effect.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This study analyses the occurrence of crimes in earthquake-affected regions, with a particular focus on the aftermath of the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes.
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Key Findings & Data:Drawing on routine activity theory, social disorganization theory, and therapeutic community theory, utilizing data sourced from the Turkish Ministry of Justice, this study aims to identify the types of crimes in earthquake-affected regions and examine the dynamics of their fluctuating trends, including increases and decreases.
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Conclusion & Impact:The results indicate that the decrease in crime rates during a postearthquake period can be attributed to the therapeutic community effect, while the subsequent rise in crime rates aligns with routine activity theory as a delayed effect.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:Comprehensive Sample
⚙️Variables:suç · terapötik topluluk · rutin aktivite

Abstract

This study analyses the occurrence of crimes in earthquake-affected regions, with a particular focus on the aftermath of the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. Drawing on routine activity theory, social disorganization theory, and therapeutic community theory, utilizing data sourced from the Turkish Ministry of Justice, this study aims to identify the types of crimes in earthquake-affected regions and examine the dynamics of their fluctuating trends, including increases and decreases. In this study, we employed a quantitative research design, utilizing descriptive, explanatory, and comparative analysis methods. The statistical data includes eighteen different types of crimes, which we have divided into theree main categories: property crimes, crimes against life and sexual crimes. By dividing the period into pre-earthquake and post-earthquake periods (early, late, and entire), the study compares rates of different types of crimes to determine variations and underlying reasons. Routine activity theory and social disorganization theory attempt to explain the increase in crime rates following disasters by highlighting disruptions in societal structures and daily routines. Alternatively, therapeutic community theory suggests that decreased crime rates can be attributed to social solidarity aiming to restore the pre-earthquake social order. The results indicate that the decrease in crime rates during a postearthquake period can be attributed to the therapeutic community effect, while the subsequent rise in crime rates aligns with routine activity theory as a delayed effect. We conclude that crime rates following the Kahramanmaraş earthquake changed in different periods and according to crime types. Crime rates initially decreased across all categories in the early period, increased in all crimes during the late period, while there was a general decline in crimes other than crimes against life over the entire period.

Özet

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı depremler vb. doğal afetler sonrasında ortaya çıkan sosyal düzensizlik ortamının neticesinde suç oranlarında nasıl bir değişim olduğunu anlamaya çalışmaktır. Bu çalışma özellikle 6 Şubat 2023 tarihinde meydana gelen Kahramanmaraş merkezli depremlerden en fazla etkilenen beş il olan Adıyaman, Gaziantep, Hatay, Kahramanmaraş ve Malatya’daki ve tüm Türkiye genelindeki suç oranlarının deprem öncesi döneme göre nasıl bir değişim yaşadığını analiz etmektedir. Doğal afetler sonrasındaki suç davranışlarının açıklanmasında sıklıkla kullanılan rutin aktivite, sosyal düzensizlik ve teröpetik topluluk teorilerinden faydalanarak Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Adalet Bakanlığı’ndan elde edilen verileri analiz ettik. On sekiz ayrı suç türüne ait elde ettiğimiz verileri mala karşı suçlar, cana karşı suçlar ve cinsel suçlar olarak sınıflandırdık. Rutin faaliyet teorisi ve sosyal düzensizlik teorisi afet sonrası suç oranlarındaki artışı açıklamaya çalışırken, terapötik topluluk teorisi azalan suç oranlarının deprem öncesi sosyal düzeni yeniden tesis etmeyi amaçlayan sosyal dayanışmadan kaynaklandığını öne sürmektedir. Nicel desende betimleyici, açıklayıcı ve karşılaştırmalı analiz tekniğini kullandık. Deprem öncesi ve deprem sonrası olarak iki temel döneme ayırdık. Depremin hemen ertesinde ve geç dönemde suç davranışlarının durumunu analiz edebilmek maksadıyla deprem sonrası dönemi erken, geç ve yekpare olarak sınıflandırdık. Suç çeşitleri, dönemler ve iller arasında bir karşılaştırma yaptık. Yaptığımız analiz neticesinde Kahramanmaraş depremi sonrası suç oranlarının döneme ve suç çeşidine göre farklılaştığı sonucuna ulaştık. Buna göre, erken dönemde tüm suçlarda azalma, geç dönemde tüm suçlarda artış ve yekpare dönemde hayata karşı işlenen suçlar dışındaki suçlarda azalma olduğu ortaya çıktı. Sonuçlar, deprem sonrası erken dönemde suç oranlarındaki azalmanın terapötik topluluk etkisine atfedilebileceğini, geç dönemdeki artışın ise gecikmiş bir etki olarak rutin faaliyet teorisiyle uyumlu olduğunu göstermektedir.

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Cite This Article

Tezcan, A. M., İnan, A. V., *, A. M. T. (2024). Analysing Post-earthquake Crime through Statistical Data: Findings from the Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes. Folklor/Edebiyat, Cilt: 30 Sayı: 120 Ek, 1369–1388. https://doi.org/10.22559/folklor.3795

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